Sunday, December 28, 2008

Current political scene

We have punched in the only two polls since Ignatieff became Liberal leader into our calculator and have come up with these rough results.


TER
CPC - 3

BC
CPC - 28
Lib - 4
NDP - 4

AB
CPC - 28

SK
CPC - 13
Lib - 1

MB
CPC - 10
NDP - 4


NL
Lib - 5
CPC - 1
NDP - 1

PE
Lib - 4

NS
Lib - 4
CPC - 3
NDP - 3
IND - 1

NB
Lib - 6
CPC - 3
NDP - 1


QC (biggest region to support the coalition)
BQ - 46
Lib - 21
CPC - 6
NDP - 1
IND - 1

ON (biggest swing to support for the government)
CPC - 65
Lib - 37
NDP - 4



TOTALS
CPC - 160
Lib - 82
BQ - 46
NDP - 18
IND - 2

This is quite a change in fortunes for the Liberals who, only a month ago, were projected at 35 seats. We will see if this can hold when the January polls come out.

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Quebec Election, results

Barring a recount, the results appear to be

PLQ - 66
PQ - 51
ADQ - 7
QS - 1

This is a large enough majority for Charest to work with. At some points earlier in the night it appeared he might only win 63, 64, or 65 seats; in which case a single by-election loss or defection could destroy his majority. He has a nice comfort zone to work with here.

The big story of the night, at least from the way I see it, is the seat win by the QS. What will all of this mean? Does the PQ have to worry about bleeding votes to the left? Does the ADQ have to worry about being replaced as the "other" party? Does the PLQ have to worry about a new party that can win seats on Montreal in a way the PQ never could? Time will tell I suppose, for all we know the QS will go the way of the Alberta Alliance and be wiped off the map next election.

As for the predictions, I think it's safe to say yet again that we were all off. One problem that I see is that there are so many predicto sites out there run by a single person. One person with one method can fail, we here at niXtuff will be looking into this issue in the coming days.

The ADQ over-preformed most expectations taking 7 seats, everyone had them at 4. If these three extra seats were added to the PLQ total it would reach 69, which is in the range of many predictions. The PQ also over preformed, and our last-second call for the PQ in Mercier is as close as it gets to anyone expecting a QS victory. There are still a few seats that were close, shefford for example, where a recount may turn the result over. We will keep our eyes open and keep you informed.

Dumont has decided to call it quits. As we've mentioned earlier, Eric Caire is the only ADQ "star" who had a chance at winning. He did win. We project he will be the next leader of the ADQ.

Monday, December 8, 2008

Quebec Election, update

Sadly, this will be the last update before I head off to work.

The Liberals are back in majority territory (just barely), but clearly it will not be as large a majority as we had projected. This is partly due to PQ strength, and the ADQ doing better than expected.

PLQ - 67
PQ - 50
ADQ - 7
QS - 1

Quebec Election, counting votes

PLQ is down to 61 seats according to the CBC

PLQ - 61 (minority)
PQ - 53
ADQ - 9
QS - 1

Quebec Election, current standings

If these numbers hold, it could be big trouble for the PLQ.

PLQ - 64
PQ - 50
ADQ - 9
QS - 1

Again, it is still early.

Quebec Election partial results

Current leading/elected standings:

PLQ - 69
PQ - 45
ADQ - 5
QS - 1

We note that it took until our very last update before we dropped our projection for the single QS seat. We had it close all along.

Sunday, December 7, 2008

Polls

We've combined polls from the Strategic Counsel http://www.thestrategiccounsel.com/our_news/polls/2008-12-04%20globeandmail%20(web).pdf - Ipsos Reid http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=4201 - Ekos http://www.ekoselection.com/wp-content/uploads/poll-results-dec-5-final.pdf - and compass http://www.compas.ca/data/081205-CommonsTurmoil-EPCB.pdf to find the poll-average. This multipoll averaging is a proven system to eliminate the static of poll-swing used by niXtuff to produce more accurate projection results. If an election were held today with these numbers, this is what we expect would be the results.

C 204
B 48
L 35
N 16

Note that this is a 'rough' calculation and is not as accurate as our regular election calculations. We are just trying to give you an idea of how these poll numbers would translate. For the record, here is our provincial breakdown:

BC
C 32
L 2
N 2

AB
C 28

SK/MB
C 23
N 3
L 1

AT
C 24
L 4
N 4

QC
B 48
L 15
C 10
N 1

And lastly...

ON
C 87
L 13
N 6

Note that this is not a joke, a type-o, or a mistake. Current polling numbers show Harper with a Chretien style lead in Ontario. In fact for this prediction we over-estimated liberal strength on the presumption that polls are currently over-stating the current tory strength. So what ridings would remain Liberal or NDP?

Assuming we use the actual numbers (and not our adjusted estimates) the NDP wins these 5:
Hamilton Cen
Timmins
Windsor W
Toronto Danforth
Trinity Spadina

and the Liberals, these 12
Parkdale
Beaches East York
Nickel Belt
Davenport
Toronto Centre
York South Weston
Vaughan
Etobicoke North
Markham
Scarborough-Agincourt
York West
Scarborough RR

The remaining ridings, including ridings such as St.Paul, Ottawa Centre, and Sudbury are all projected to go Conservative.

Quebec Election - Final

PLQ 75 (MAJORITY)
PQ 46
ADQ 4



ADQ

Chauveau
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
Lotbinière
Rivière-du-Loup




PQ

Abitibi-Ouest
Beauharnois
Berthier
Bertrand
Blainville
Borduas
Bourget
Chambly
Champlain
Charlevoix
Deux-Montagnes
Drummond
Dubuc
Duplessis
Gouin
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Johnson
Joliette
Labelle
Lac-Saint-Jean
L'Assomption
Marguerite-D'Youville
Marie-Victorin
Masson
Matapédia
Mercier
Mirabel
Pointe-aux-Trembles
Prévost
René-Lévesque
Richelieu
Rimouski
Roberval
Rosemont
Rousseau
Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques
Saint-Hyacinthe
Saint-Jean
Saint-Maurice
Taillon
Taschereau
Terrebonne
Ungava
Vachon
Verchères



PLQ

Abitibi-Est
Acadie
Anjou
Argenteuil
Arthabaska
Beauce-Nord
Beauce-Sud
Bellechasse
Bonaventure
Bourassa-Sauvé
Brome-Missisquoi
Chapleau
Charlesbourg
Châteauguay
Chicoutimi
Chomedey
Crémazie
D'Arcy-McGee
Fabre
Frontenac
Gaspé
Gatineau
Groulx
Hull
Huntingdon
Iberville
Jacques-Cartier
Jean-Lesage
Jeanne-Mance—Viger
Jean-Talon
Jonquière
Kamouraska-Témiscouata
La Peltrie
La Pinière
La Prairie
LaFontaine
Laporte
Laurier-Dorion
Laval-des-Rapides
Laviolette
Lévis
Louis-Hébert
Marguerite-Bourgeoys
Marquette
Maskinongé
Matane
Mégantic-Compton
Mille-Îles
Montmagny-L'Islet
Montmorency
Mont-Royal
Nelligan
Nicolet-Yamaska
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce
Orford
Outremont
Papineau
Pontiac
Portneuf
Richmond
Robert-Baldwin
Rouyn-Noranda—Témiscamingue
Saint-François
Saint-Henri—Sainte-Anne
Saint-Laurent
Shefford
Sherbrooke
Soulanges
Trois-Rivières
Vanier
Vaudreuil
Verdun
Viau
Vimont
Westmount—Saint-Louis

Quebec Election

Final list coming shortly.

ADQ solid
Chauveau
Lotbinière

PLQ solid
Beauce-Nord
Montmorency
Abitibi-Est
Chicoutimi
Gaspé
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Nicolet-Yamaska

PQ solid
Mercier
Marguerite-D'Youville
Saint-Jean
Chambly

PLQ 75 (MAJORITY)
PQ 46
ADQ 4

Quebec Election

PLQ vs PQ (10)
Abitibi-Est
Chambly
Chicoutimi
Gaspé
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Marguerite-D'Youville
Nicolet-Yamaska
Saint-Jean


ADQ vs PLQ (3)
Beauce-Nord
Chauveau
Montmorency



ADQ vs PLQ vs PQ (1)
Lotbinière * (Due to an earlier recording error, this was listed as Levis, which is actually solidly PLQ)


PQ vs QS (1)
Mercier


Solid PLQ +2
Matane
Vanier

Solid PQ +2

Roberval
Saint-Hyacinthe



PLQ 66-80 (MAJORITY)
PQ 42-54
ADQ 2-6
QS 0-1

Saturday, December 6, 2008

PLQ clinches majority

Our most recent update has the PLQ clinching a majority of seats.

Solid PLQ +8 (64)
Arthabaska
Beauce-Sud
Bellechasse
La Peltrie
Crémazie
Rouyn-Noranda—Témiscamingue
Groulx
Louis-Hébert


Solid PQ +3 (40)
Gouin
Saint-Maurice
Ungava


BATTLEGROUND SEATS (19)


PLQ vs PQ (13)
Abitibi-Est
Chambly
Chicoutimi
Gaspé
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Marguerite-D'Youville
Matane
Nicolet-Yamaska
Roberval
Saint-Hyacinthe
Saint-Jean


ADQ vs PLQ (4)
Beauce-Nord
Chauveau
Montmorency
Vanier


ADQ vs PLQ vs PQ (1)
Lotbinière


PQ vs QS (1)
Mercier



PLQ 64-82 (MAJORITY)
PQ 40-55
ADQ 2-7
QS 0-1

Quebec Election

Here is our seat by seat projection for Quebec.

ADQ solid (2)
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière (ADQ)
Rivière-du-Loup (ADQ)


PQ solid (37)
Abitibi-Ouest
Beauharnois
Berthier
Bertrand
Blainville
Borduas
Bourget
Champlain
Charlevoix
Deux-Montagnes
Drummond
Dubuc
Duplessis
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Johnson
Joliette
Labelle
Lac-Saint-Jean
L'Assomption
Marie-Victorin
Masson
Matapédia
Mirabel
Pointe-aux-Trembles
Prévost
René-Lévesque
Richelieu
Rimouski
Rosemont
Rousseau
Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques
Taillon
Taschereau
Terrebonne
Vachon
Verchères


PLQ solid (56)
Acadie
Anjou
Argenteuil
Bonaventure
Bourassa-Sauvé
Brome-Missisquoi
Chapleau
Charlesbourg
Châteauguay
Chomedey
D'Arcy-McGee
Fabre
Frontenac
Gatineau
Hull
Huntingdon
Jacques-Cartier
Jean-Lesage
Jeanne-Mance—Viger
Jean-Talon
Kamouraska-Témiscouata
La Pinière
LaFontaine
Laporte
Laurier-Dorion
Laval-des-Rapides
Laviolette
Lévis
Marguerite-Bourgeoys
Marquette
Maskinongé
Mégantic-Compton
Mille-Îles
Montmagny-L'Islet
Mont-Royal
Nelligan
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce
Orford
Outremont
Papineau
Pontiac
Portneuf
Richmond
Robert-Baldwin
Saint-François
Saint-Henri—Sainte-Anne
Saint-Laurent
Shefford
Sherbrooke
Soulanges
Trois-Rivières
Vaudreuil
Verdun
Viau
Vimont
Westmount—Saint-Louis


BATTLEGROUND SEATS (31)


PLQ vs PQ (19)
Abitibi-Est
Chambly
Chicoutimi
Crémazie
Gaspé
Groulx
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Louis-Hébert
Marguerite-D'Youville
Matane
Nicolet-Yamaska
Roberval
Rouyn-Noranda—Témiscamingue
Saint-Hyacinthe
Saint-Jean
Saint-Maurice
Ungava


ADQ vs PLQ (9)
Arthabaska
Beauce-Nord
Beauce-Sud
Bellechasse
Chauveau
La Peltrie
Montmorency
Vanier


ADQ vs PLQ vs PQ (1)
Lévis


PQ vs QS (2)
Gouin
Mercier


The list of solid seats will not be published again. In the coming days the number of "battleground" seats will be reduced, and they will be assigned to particular parties.

PLQ 56-85
PQ 37-59
ADQ 2-12
QS 0-2

What's personally surprising is that when I ran the numbers, that QS seems to still be within striking range of some PQ seats. This may be due to imperfections on our mathematical modeling system however. Regardless, we've put them up there. Also note it's possible for the PQ to win the election. They'd need to be within 4.5% of the PLQ in order to do so (39% for the PLQ to 34.5% PQ means the PQ wins) but currently polls are showing the gap is larger than this.

Friday, December 5, 2008

Quebec Election

Max and Mins for each party according to recent polling

PLQ = 61-82
PQ = 41-58
ADQ = 2-11

Quebec Election

Today's trendline adjustments

PLQ 70
PQ 50
ADQ 5

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Parliament out, to return in Jan.

Regardless, there will likely be an election sooner rather than later. None of what's going on right now in Ottawa is anywhere near "stable"

Friday, November 28, 2008

Another federal election?

There is word that the Liberals and NDP are planning to form a coalition government to bring down the Tories. Successful or not, it likely means another election is in the offing sooner rather than later.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Quebec Election

PLQ 68
PQ 53
ADQ 4

The ADQ will likely win the following:
Riviere Du Loup
Chutes De La Chaudiere
Beauce Nord
Lotbiniere

And may also win the following:
Chauveau
La Peltrie
Vanier

We are also looking at the Lanaudiere and Laurentides areas to see if the ADQ has any strong candidates who might make a surprise showing on election night.

(UPDATE)

We've found three seats in those areas mentioned above (Which ring Montreal) where we would not be surprised if the ADQ managed to pull off an unexpected hold. They are Blainville, Mirabel, and Berthier. These three seats are held by somewhat strong MNAs, and were won by somewhat comfortable margins last time. While we do not see that they have the numbers to win, we do expect them to do better than others expect.


* Note. Our projections rely on our past weighting formula, but also have added in a new element of "trendlines" that attempts to show the trends before they happen, our projections are therefore for election day, and not for tomorrow, unlike other 'preidcto' sites.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

More poll tracking

More historic numbers
http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=664

Nova Scotia included
http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=592

I've used a simple elimination formula to find out Tory/SoCred numbers for BC and Saskatchewan.

In December 1993, BC Social Credit must have had near 25% support.
For most of the early 90's, Saskatchewans PC's must have had support between 20%-25%

Here are some historic federal numbers.
http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=405

Monday, November 24, 2008

Poll tracking.

While the folks over at Polling Report try to keep with the polls, this is a very difficult job to do, and often they get burnt out and cannot always update on time. Therefore, I've decided to start my own poll tracking! Check back for updates. Our first is provincial polls from Environics

Click Here

Saturday, November 22, 2008

The ADQ

Where do they have a shot at winning seats, and who is in those seats?


Likely to win some of all of these:

Rivere-Du-Loup (Mario Dumont)*
Chutes-De-La-Chaudiere (Marc Picard)*
Lotbiniere (Sylvie Roy)*
Beauce-Nord (Janvier Grondin)*
Chauveau (Gerard Deltell)

Unlikely to hold on to some or all of these:

Beauce-Sud (Claude Morin)
Vanier (Sylvain Legare)
La Peltrie (Éric Caire)**
Montmorency (Hubert Benoit)
Chicoutimi (Jean-Philippe Marin)
Matane (Denis Paquette)

* = one of the 4 members elected in 2003
** = one of the media's so-called "skilled" ADQ members.

Quebec Election

New poll numbers from Nanos show the ADQ heading towards an unmitigated disaster. We've updated our trendlines.

PLQ - 68
PQ - 54
ADQ - 3

It's not outside of possibility that the ADQ could get shut out this election.

Public Transit in Toronto

Historically, this is a Public Transit blog, and we do intend to return to that shortly. Here is a blog entry in that vein.

The TTC has announced that it plans to increase off peak service to now provide service on almost every route, at 30 minute intervals or better, whenever the subway is open. While it is not complete, it does make for a new stronger network that really opens up the entire city to transit service. I work nights. I'm a security guard - IE one of those people who works in the lobby if your office tower who is there when you are not. I head into the downtown core in the late evening and head out during the morning peak when everyone else is rushing the other direction. For me and people like me these service upgrades are a godsend.

The reality is that not everyone works 9-5 at King and Bay. There are hundreds of thousands of us that work off-peak hours throughout the city. Even those who do not will often take transit to go shopping, or to see the doctor, or to visit friends, or to go out with friends for a night on the town. These are all off-peak ventures. If you can easily get to work via transit but cannot use it to go shopping, you are more likely to, when you get money, buy a car. If you have a car, its oh-so-easy to take it to work on a day when you may be running behind, or when it is very cold, or whatever the reason may be. Building a successful transit network is not a quick-fix thing, it is a long term plan for success.

Buses that are empty tomorrow night will, within a few years, fill themselves up, as new arrivals to our city find out they can get around without a car, and therefore do not buy one, and as younger Torontoians who currently take the TTC out of necessity find that they can take it out of convenience as well. This new network literally "opens up" the city. No longer does an off-peak worker have to actively think about where to live, and where he or she can work; this new network opens up all those locations to all sorts of various hours of travel.

The city is almost done. There are a few more steps they could take to make this "perfect". One is to extend this service to every route in the network, 30 minutes or better while the subway is open. This may mean that certain routes need to be 'adjusted'. Take for example the 101 Downsview Park bus. The only passenger I've ever seen on that bus is myself, who took it because I was curious why it's so darn empty. The bus currently runs on a 20 minute headway as its journey only takes 10 minutes each direction. Extending the route and turning it into a loop that reaches Keele and Sheppard, would make it a useful bus for people to use to transfer to the Keele bus. It would, at most, add 10 minutes to the trip making this bus have a 30 minute headway. Another example is the 117 Alness, and the 107 Keele North; not today but in the future. When the YUS subway is extended into the York Region, its almost certain that YRT will take over operations of the 107. Being the biggest money-loser for the TTC, they are wise to cancel the service. While most of the 107 route is close enough to other service for passengers to walk the difference, the service on Chesswood is not. Fortunately, Chesswood is surprisingly close to Alness St and the two routes could be easily combined into one route operating from the new Sheppard West station.

Two is to expand service from 30 minutes at all times into something better. I'm personally a fan of at least 20 minutes to 10pm every day of the week, and at least 15 in the mid-day and peak periods, every day of the week. With this end-goal in mind the TTC could start implementing this service in the busier routes and expand outward. Current dashed-line routes on the map that are "limited service" could be re-designated as routes that run all day ever day but do not follow the 15-20-30 formula.

Three is to make a serious expansion to the Blue Night network. First, the TTC should add more buses to the 300 Bloor and 320 Yonge night routes. These routes should never go below 7:30 service, that means two buses every 15 minutes.

Secondly, service on these routes should be increases when needed, for example a closing-hour for the clubs, and just prior to the opening of the subway, to ensure that true off-peak loading standards (where everyone gets a seat) is maintained. These should be the 'star' routes of the Blue Night Network and should be marketed as such. Next is to increase service on other well-used blue night routes. Perhaps a 20 minute headway on Queen and Eglinton West, if not an outright 15 minute headway on both.

Lastly, the TTC needs to 'fill in the gaps' on the network. This would include a Keele bus, and a Sheppard West bus. While the latter can run the same routing as the daytime, ideally the Keele bus would head into York University, which is a large generator of party-goers at nighttime. Nothing against York, this is true for any University with residence buildings. I also think that bringing night service back to King and Spadina is wise. Money could be saved by keeping Queen at at 30 minute headway but properly scheduling service on King so that arrival time on cross streets like Bathurst or Sherbroune is staggered so that where one streetcar arrives at 3:15am, the other arrives at 3:30am in the same direction. While Queen would make an important connection with the Yonge line, King would make one with Bloor. Additional service on Spadina would also help relieve some of the club crowd. It may even be wise to run a blue night bus into the entertainment district - and I mean into the district itself, not up university and call that the district, I'm talking down Adelaide and Richmond - and then express to various destinations in the city. Beyond this the city should examine bringing service to other routes. Kipling, Kennedy, St.Clair-Kingston-Markham, both Warden and Vic Park separately, and extending Lawrence West to the Airport, and staggering the schedule so that it meshes with Eglinton West's arrivals there.

Once these steps are taken the TTC will find themselves in possession of a seamless network connecting all the corners of the city to one another. While this may be costly, it will build off-peak ridership and help to fill those dreaded "empty buses". Off-peak ridership is important as these services are far less crowded and more comfortable to ride. Peak-heavy systems often leave buses sitting around all day aging by themselves. A successful network needs to run at all times in all places. I can think of no better way to lay the groundwork for the coming Transit City improvements.

For those wishing to read the new service changes for themselves, they are available on the TTC website at http://www3.ttc.ca/Service_Advisories/Service_Changes.jsp

Friday, November 21, 2008

Quebec Election Projection

Another 'rough' projection, given the general decline in the ADQ without any sign that things will pick up.

PLQ - 65
PQ - 54
ADQ - 6

Friday, November 14, 2008

New website for the Quebec Election

The website at http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/ seems to have its act together. We recommend adding it to your bookmarks if you plan on following the election.

Monday, November 10, 2008

Quebec Election pt2

Our current "Seat" projections (which will have accuracy problems due to the small number of polls expected, and uniqueness of the Quebec situation) currently show the following results:

PLQ - 63
PQ - 54
ADQ - 8

For the ADQ we have Dumont winning his seat, and 6 others joining him from the Quebec City/Levis area. Of the ADQ "frontbench" team (IE the so-called stars of the party) we currently only see Caire being re-elected by the narrowest of margins, while Taillon, Morissette, and Proulx go down to defeat, and

Quebec election

We are planning to do some minor tracking of the Quebec election. We've run the current numbers, and they tell us the ADQ will be reduced to less than a dozen seats, with the Liberals holding a narrow majority. More to come.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Riding tracker.

Note that Democratic Space updated thier last projections since we took note, so some of this may be off. Prelim numbers are as follows:


Avalon
We were right, as was EP. DS was off.

Central Nova - We were wrong
South Shore - We and EP were wrong

Tobique - We were wrong

Charlesbourg - We were wrong
Brossard - We were wrong (narrowly)
Hull - We were wrong
Roberval - DS was wrong, we and EP were right.

Beaches - We were wrong
Mississauga South - We and EP were wrong, DS was right
Welland - We were right
Brant - We were wrong
London West - We were right
Kenora - We were wrong, but so were they (It went CPC)

Saint Boniface - We were right

Palliser - we were wrong

Vancouver Kingsway - we were wrong, so was DS
Esquaimalt - We were wrong
Saanich - We were right, so was DS
Surrey North - We were wrong
Newton - We were wrong, so was DS

Nunavut - We were right, so was DS


So that's 17 to 6. There were a number of ridings (Mirimichi for example) that we were all wrong about. Regardless, this has unfortuantly been a failure and we have failed to acheive our goal of correctly predicting the election against the other major prediction websites, and all of us failed to predict the size of the tory minority.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

How very embarrassing

It appears I've added my own ridings wrong. This is a huge embarrassment to myself, but in the interest of honesty, I will report the proper adding. I apologize for this amateurish mistake.

126 - Conservative Party of Stephen Harper
88 - Liberal Party of Stephane Dion
51 - Bloc Quebecois of Gilles Duceppe
40 - New Democratic Party of Jack Layton
1 - Green Party of Elizabeth May
2 - Independents (Casey and Arthur)

Numbers in comparison

Please note the following - Blogger will be unavailable Tuesday (10/14) at 8:00PM PDT for about 10 minutes for maintenance.
*table removed due to errors*

Monday, October 13, 2008

Different numbers.

I will compare my numbers to those of the other major "predicto" sites out there. www.electionprediction.org, and www.democraticspace.com

Our final numbers:
124 - Conservative Party of Stephen Harper
88 - Liberal Party of Stephane Dion
51 - Bloc Quebecois of Gilles Duceppe
42 - New Democratic Party of Jack Layton
1 - Green Party of Elizabeth May
2 - Independents (Casey and Arthur)

EP's final numbers:
125 - Conservative Party of Stephen Harper
94 - Liberal Party of Stephane Dion
51 - Bloc Quebecois of Gilles Duceppe
36 - New Democratic Party of Jack Layton
2 - Independents (Casey and Arthur)

DS's final numbers:
128 - Conservative Party of Stephen Harper
92 - Liberal Party of Stephane Dion
52 - Bloc Quebecois of Gilles Duceppe
34 - New Democratic Party of Jack Layton
2 - Independents (Casey and Arthur)

One thing to note is we are the only ones calling for a Green seat. I'll consider this a personal victory for our projections even if we are farther off in other respects.

So where do we disagree? I will outline every riding where we disagree with one or both of these other predictions.


DS = Democratic Space
EP = Electionprediction
NX = niXtuff

Newfoundland
DS has Avalon going CPC. EP and NX have it going Liberal.

Nova Scotia
DS and EP have Central Nova going CPC, NX has it going Green
DS has South Shore going CPC, NX and EP have it going NDP

New Brunswick
DS and EP have Tobique going CPC, NX has it going Lib

Quebec
DS and EP have Charlesbourg going CPC, NX has it going BQ
DS has Roberval going BQ, NX and EP have it going CPC
DS and EP have Hull going Lib, NX has it going NDP
DS and EP have Brossard going BQ, NX has it going Lib

Ontario
DS and EP have Beaches going Lib, NX has it going NDP
DS has Mississauga South going Lib, NX and EP have it going CPC
EP has Halton going CPC, DS and NX have it going Lib
DS and EP have Welland going Lib, NX has it going NDP
DS and EP have Brant going CPC, NX has it going Lib
DS and EP have London West going Lib, NX has it going CPC
DS and EP have Kenora going Lib, NX has it going NDP

Manitoba
DS and EP have Saint Boniface going Lib, NX has it going CPC

Saskatchewan
DS and EP have Palliser going CPC, NX has it going NDP

British Columbia
EP has Vancouver Kingsway going NDP, DS and NX have it going Lib
DS and EP have Esquaimalt going Lib, NX has it going CPC
EP has Saanich going Lib, DS and NX have it going CPC
DS and EP have Surrey North going CPC, NX has it going NDP
EP has Newton going Lib, DS and NX have it going CPC

Territories
EP has Nunavut going Lib, DS and NX have it going CPC

I'll keep a tally on these ridings on election night (as well as limited live blogging when the polls in BC close) and post who was right.

Sunday, October 12, 2008

Final Numbers

124 - Conservative Party of Stephen Harper
88 - Liberal Party of Stephane Dion
51 - Bloc Quebecois of Gilles Duceppe
42 - New Democratic Party of Jack Layton
1 - Green Party of Elizabeth May
2 - Independents (Casey and Arthur)

FINAL RIDING LIST

NEWFOUDNLAND - Lib 6 -- NDP 1
Lib - Avalon
Lib - Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor
Lib - Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte
Lib - Labrador
Lib - Random-Burin-St. George's
NDP - St. John's East
Lib - St. John's South-Mount Pearl

PEI - Lib 4
Lib - Cardigan
Lib - Charlottetown
Lib - Egmont
Lib - Malpeque

NOVA SCOTIA - Lib 6 -- NDP 3 -- Grn 1 -- IND 1
Lib - Cape Breton-Canso
Grn - Central Nova
IND - Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
Lib - Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
NDP - Halifax
Lib - Halifax West
Lib - Kings-Hants
NDP - Sackville-Eastern Shore
NDP - South Shore-St. Margaret's
Lib - Sydney-Victoria
Lib - West Nova

NEW BRUNSWICK - Lib 7 -- CPC 2 -- NDP 1
NDP - Acadie-Bathurst
Lib - Beauséjour
Lib - Fredericton
CPC - Fundy Royal
Lib - Madawaska-Restigouche
Lib - Miramichi
Lib - Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
CPC - New Brunswick Southwest
Lib - Saint John
Lib - Tobique-Mactaquac

QUEBEC - BQ 51 -- Lib 14 -- CPC 7 -- NDP 2 -- IND 1
BQ - Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou
BQ - Abitibi-Témiscamingue
Lib - Ahuntsic
BQ - Alfred-Pellan
BQ - Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel
BQ - Bas-Richelieu-Nicolet-Bécancour
CPC - Beauce
BQ - Beauharnois-Salaberry
BQ - Beauport-Limoilou
BQ - Berthier-Maskinongé
Lib - Bourassa
BQ - Brome-Missisquoi
Lib - Brossard-La Prairie
BQ - Chambly-Borduas
BQ - Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles
BQ - Châteauguay-Saint-Constant
BQ - Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
BQ - Compton-Stanstead
BQ - Drummond
BQ - Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine
BQ - Gatineau
BQ - Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia
BQ - Hochelaga
Lib - Honoré-Mercier
NDP - Hull-Aylmer
BQ - Jeanne-Le Ber
BQ - Joliette
BQ - Jonquière-Alma
BQ - La Pointe-de-l'Île
Lib - Lac-Saint-Louis
Lib - LaSalle-Émard
BQ - Laurentides-Labelle
BQ - Laurier-Sainte-Marie
BQ - Laval
Lib - Laval-Les Îles
CPC - Lévis-Bellechasse
BQ - Longueuil-Pierre-Boucher
BQ - Lotbinière-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
BQ - Louis-Hébert
CPC - Louis-Saint-Laurent
BQ - Manicouagan
BQ - Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
CPC - Mégantic-L'Érable
BQ - Montcalm
BQ - Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup
BQ - Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haute-Côte-Nord
Lib - Mount Royal
Lib - Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Lachine
NDP - Outremont
Lib - Papineau
Lib - Pierrefonds-Dollard
CPC - Pontiac
IND - Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier
BQ - Québec
BQ - Repentigny
BQ - Richmond-Arthabaska
BQ - Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques
BQ - Rivière-des-Mille-Îles
BQ - Rivière-du-Nord
CPC - Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean
BQ - Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie
BQ - Saint-Bruno-Saint-Hubert
BQ - Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot
BQ - Saint-Jean
BQ - Saint-Lambert
Lib - Saint-Laurent-Cartierville
Lib - Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel
BQ - Saint-Maurice-Champlain
BQ - Shefford
BQ - Sherbrooke
BQ - Terrebonne-Blainville
BQ - Trois-Rivières
BQ - Vaudreuil-Soulanges
BQ - Verchères-Les Patriotes
Lib - Westmount-Ville-Marie

ONTARIO - CPC 44 -- Lib 43 -- NDP 19
Lib - Ajax-Pickering
NDP - Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing
CPC - Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale
CPC - Barrie
NDP - Beaches-East York
Lib - Bramalea-Gore-Malton
Lib - Brampton West
Lib - Brampton-Springdale
Lib - Brant
CPC - Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
CPC - Burlington
CPC - Cambridge
CPC - Carleton-Mississippi Mills
CPC - Chatham-Kent-Essex
Lib - Davenport
Lib - Don Valley East
Lib - Don Valley West
CPC - Dufferin-Caledon
CPC - Durham
Lib - Eglinton-Lawrence
CPC - Elgin-Middlesex-London
CPC - Essex
Lib - Etobicoke Centre
Lib - Etobicoke North
Lib - Etobicoke-Lakeshore
CPC - Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
Lib - Guelph
CPC - Haldimand-Norfolk
CPC - Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
Lib - Halton
NDP - Hamilton Centre
NDP - Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
NDP - Hamilton Mountain
CPC - Huron-Bruce
NDP - Kenora
Lib - Kingston and the Islands
Lib - Kitchener Centre
CPC - Kitchener-Conestoga
Lib - Kitchener-Waterloo
CPC - Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
CPC - Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
CPC - Leeds-Grenville
Lib - London North Centre
CPC - London West
NDP - London-Fanshawe
Lib - Markham-Unionville
Lib - Mississauga East-Cooksville
CPC - Mississauga South
Lib - Mississauga-Brampton South
Lib - Mississauga-Erindale
Lib - Mississauga-Streetsville
CPC - Nepean-Carleton
CPC - Newmarket-Aurora
CPC - Niagara Falls
CPC - Niagara West-Glanbrook
NDP - Nickel Belt
Lib - Nipissing-Timiskaming
CPC - Northumberland-Quinte West
Lib - Oak Ridges-Markham
CPC - Oakville
CPC - Oshawa
NDP - Ottawa Centre
Lib - Ottawa South
CPC - Ottawa West-Nepean
CPC - Ottawa-Orléans
Lib - Ottawa-Vanier
CPC - Oxford
NDP - Parkdale-High Park
CPC - Parry Sound-Muskoka
CPC - Perth-Wellington
CPC - Peterborough
Lib - Pickering-Scarborough East
CPC - Prince Edward-Hastings
CPC - Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke
Lib - Richmond Hill
CPC - Sarnia-Lambton
NDP - Sault Ste. Marie
Lib - Scarborough Centre
Lib - Scarborough Southwest
Lib - Scarborough-Agincourt
Lib - Scarborough-Guildwood
Lib - Scarborough-Rouge River
CPC - Simcoe North
CPC - Simcoe-Grey
CPC - St. Catharines
Lib - St. Paul's
CPC - Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry
Lib - Sudbury
Lib - Thornhill
NDP - Thunder Bay-Rainy River
NDP - Thunder Bay-Superior North
NDP - Timmins-James Bay
Lib - Toronto Centre
NDP - Toronto-Danforth
NDP - Trinity-Spadina
Lib - Vaughan
NDP - Welland
CPC - Wellington-Halton Hills
CPC - Whitby-Oshawa
Lib - Willowdale
NDP - Windsor West
NDP - Windsor-Tecumseh
Lib - York Centre
Lib - York South-Weston
Lib - York West
CPC - York-Simcoe

MANITOBA - CPC 9 -- NDP 5 -- Lib 2
CPC - Brandon-Souris
CPC - Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia
Lib - Churchill
CPC - Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette
NDP - Elmwood-Transcona
CPC - Kildonan-St. Paul
CPC - Portage-Lisgar
CPC - Provencher
CPC - Saint Boniface
CPC - Selkirk-Interlake
NDP - Winnipeg Centre
NDP - Winnipeg North
CPC - Winnipeg South
Lib - Winnipeg South Centre

SASKATCHEWAN - CPC 11 -- Lib 1 -- NDP 2
CPC - Battlefords-Lloydminster
CPC - Blackstrap
CPC - Cypress Hills-Grasslands
CPC - Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River
NDP - Palliser
CPC - Prince Albert
CPC - Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre
CPC - Regina-Qu'Appelle
CPC - Saskatoon-Humboldt
NDP - Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar
CPC - Saskatoon-Wanuskewin
CPC - Souris-Moose Mountain
Lib - Wascana
CPC - Yorkton-Melville

ALBERTA - CPC 28
CPC - Calgary Centre
CPC - Calgary Centre-North
CPC - Calgary East
CPC - Calgary Northeast
CPC - Calgary Southeast
CPC - Calgary Southwest
CPC - Calgary West
CPC - Calgary-Nose Hill
CPC - Crowfoot
CPC - Edmonton Centre
CPC - Edmonton East
CPC - Edmonton-Leduc
CPC - Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont
CPC - Edmonton-Sherwood Park
CPC - Edmonton-Spruce Grove
CPC - Edmonton-St. Albert
CPC - Edmonton-Strathcona
CPC - Fort McMurray-Athabasca
CPC - Lethbridge
CPC - Macleod
CPC - Medicine Hat
CPC - Peace River
CPC - Red Deer
CPC - Vegreville-Wainwright
CPC - Westlock-St. Paul
CPC - Wetaskiwin
CPC - Wild Rose
CPC - Yellowhead

BRITISH COLUMBIA - CPC 24 -- NDP 8 -- Lib 4
CPC - Abbotsford
NDP - British Columbia Southern Interior
NDP - Burnaby-Douglas
NDP - Burnaby-New Westminster
CPC - Cariboo-Prince George
CPC - Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon
CPC - Delta-Richmond East
CPC - Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
CPC - Fleetwood-Port Kells
CPC - Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo
CPC - Kelowna-Lake Country
CPC - Kootenay-Columbia
CPC - Langley
CPC - Nanaimo-Alberni
NDP - Nanaimo-Cowichan
CPC - New Westminster-Coquitlam
CPC - Newton-North Delta
CPC - North Vancouver
CPC - Okanagan-Coquihalla
CPC - Okanagan-Shuswap
CPC - Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission
CPC - Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam
CPC - Prince George-Peace River
CPC - Richmond
CPC - Saanich-Gulf Islands
NDP - Skeena-Bulkley Valley
CPC - South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale
NDP - Surrey North
Lib - Vancouver Centre
NDP - Vancouver East
CPC - Vancouver Island North
Lib - Vancouver Kingsway
Lib - Vancouver Quadra
Lib - Vancouver South
NDP - Victoria
CPC - West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country

Lib - Yukon
NDP - Western Arctic
CPC - Nunuvut

Hull

Our research indicates it will go NDP by less than 100 votes.

Territories

Lib - Yukon
NDP - Western Arctic
CPC - Nunuvut

Ontario Update (final)

ONTARIO - CPC 44 -- Lib 43 -- NDP 19
Lib - Ajax-Pickering
NDP - Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing
CPC - Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale
CPC - Barrie
NDP - Beaches-East York
Lib - Bramalea-Gore-Malton
Lib - Brampton West
Lib - Brampton-Springdale
Lib - Brant
CPC - Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
CPC - Burlington
CPC - Cambridge
CPC - Carleton-Mississippi Mills
CPC - Chatham-Kent-Essex
Lib - Davenport
Lib - Don Valley East
Lib - Don Valley West
CPC - Dufferin-Caledon
CPC - Durham
Lib - Eglinton-Lawrence
CPC - Elgin-Middlesex-London
CPC - Essex
Lib - Etobicoke Centre
Lib - Etobicoke North
Lib - Etobicoke-Lakeshore
CPC - Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
Lib - Guelph
CPC - Haldimand-Norfolk
CPC - Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
Lib - Halton
NDP - Hamilton Centre
NDP - Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
NDP - Hamilton Mountain
CPC - Huron-Bruce
NDP - Kenora
Lib - Kingston and the Islands
Lib - Kitchener Centre
CPC - Kitchener-Conestoga
Lib - Kitchener-Waterloo
CPC - Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
CPC - Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
CPC - Leeds-Grenville
Lib - London North Centre
CPC - London West
NDP - London-Fanshawe
Lib - Markham-Unionville
Lib - Mississauga East-Cooksville
CPC - Mississauga South
Lib - Mississauga-Brampton South
Lib - Mississauga-Erindale
Lib - Mississauga-Streetsville
CPC - Nepean-Carleton
CPC - Newmarket-Aurora
CPC - Niagara Falls
CPC - Niagara West-Glanbrook
NDP - Nickel Belt
Lib - Nipissing-Timiskaming
CPC - Northumberland-Quinte West
Lib - Oak Ridges-Markham
CPC - Oakville
CPC - Oshawa
NDP - Ottawa Centre
Lib - Ottawa South
CPC - Ottawa West-Nepean
CPC - Ottawa-Orléans
Lib - Ottawa-Vanier
CPC - Oxford
NDP - Parkdale-High Park
CPC - Parry Sound-Muskoka
CPC - Perth-Wellington
CPC - Peterborough
Lib - Pickering-Scarborough East
CPC - Prince Edward-Hastings
CPC - Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke
Lib - Richmond Hill
CPC - Sarnia-Lambton
NDP - Sault Ste. Marie
Lib - Scarborough Centre
Lib - Scarborough Southwest
Lib - Scarborough-Agincourt
Lib - Scarborough-Guildwood
Lib - Scarborough-Rouge River
CPC - Simcoe North
CPC - Simcoe-Grey
CPC - St. Catharines
Lib - St. Paul's
CPC - Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry
Lib - Sudbury
Lib - Thornhill
NDP - Thunder Bay-Rainy River
NDP - Thunder Bay-Superior North
NDP - Timmins-James Bay
Lib - Toronto Centre
NDP - Toronto-Danforth
NDP - Trinity-Spadina
Lib - Vaughan
NDP - Welland
CPC - Wellington-Halton Hills
CPC - Whitby-Oshawa
Lib - Willowdale
NDP - Windsor West
NDP - Windsor-Tecumseh
Lib - York Centre
Lib - York South-Weston
Lib - York West
CPC - York-Simcoe

Numbers

Still some are too close to call

CPC 121
Lib 82
BQ 51
NDP 36
Grn 1 (Yes, we have May winning her seat)
IND 2
TCTC 13

Riding by Riding (Ontario)

ONTARIO - Lib 38 -- CPC 40 -- NDP 16 -- TCTC 12
Lib - Ajax-Pickering
NDP - Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing
CPC - Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale
CPC - Barrie
NDP - Beaches-East York
Lib - Bramalea-Gore-Malton
Lib - Brampton West
Lib - Brampton-Springdale
Lib - Brant
CPC - Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
CPC - Burlington
CPC - Cambridge
CPC - Carleton-Mississippi Mills
CPC - Chatham-Kent-Essex
Lib - Davenport
Lib - Don Valley East
Lib - Don Valley West
CPC - Dufferin-Caledon
CPC - Durham
Lib - Eglinton-Lawrence
CPC - Elgin-Middlesex-London
CPC - Essex
Lib - Etobicoke Centre
Lib - Etobicoke North
Lib - Etobicoke-Lakeshore
CPC - Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
TCTC - Guelph
TCTC - Haldimand-Norfolk
CPC - Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
TCTC - Halton
NDP - Hamilton Centre
NDP - Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
NDP - Hamilton Mountain
CPC - Huron-Bruce
TCTC - Kenora
Lib - Kingston and the Islands
Lib - Kitchener Centre
CPC - Kitchener-Conestoga
Lib - Kitchener-Waterloo
CPC - Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
CPC - Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
CPC - Leeds-Grenville
Lib - London North Centre
TCTC - London West
NDP - London-Fanshawe
Lib - Markham-Unionville
Lib - Mississauga East-Cooksville
TCTC - Mississauga South
Lib - Mississauga-Brampton South
TCTC - Mississauga-Erindale
TCTC - Mississauga-Streetsville
CPC - Nepean-Carleton
TCTC - Newmarket-Aurora
CPC - Niagara Falls
CPC - Niagara West-Glanbrook
NDP - Nickel Belt
Lib - Nipissing-Timiskaming
CPC - Northumberland-Quinte West
Lib - Oak Ridges-Markham
CPC - Oakville
CPC - Oshawa
NDP - Ottawa Centre
TCTC - Ottawa South
CPC - Ottawa West-Nepean
CPC - Ottawa-Orléans
Lib - Ottawa-Vanier
CPC - Oxford
TCTC - Parkdale-High Park
CPC - Parry Sound-Muskoka
CPC - Perth-Wellington
CPC - Peterborough
Lib - Pickering-Scarborough East
CPC - Prince Edward-Hastings
CPC - Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke
Lib - Richmond Hill
CPC - Sarnia-Lambton
NDP - Sault Ste. Marie
Lib - Scarborough Centre
Lib - Scarborough Southwest
Lib - Scarborough-Agincourt
Lib - Scarborough-Guildwood
Lib - Scarborough-Rouge River
CPC - Simcoe North
CPC - Simcoe-Grey
CPC - St. Catharines
Lib - St. Paul's
CPC - Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry
Lib - Sudbury
Lib - Thornhill
NDP - Thunder Bay-Rainy River
NDP - Thunder Bay-Superior North
NDP - Timmins-James Bay
Lib - Toronto Centre
NDP - Toronto-Danforth
NDP - Trinity-Spadina
Lib - Vaughan
TCTC - Welland
CPC - Wellington-Halton Hills
CPC - Whitby-Oshawa
Lib - Willowdale
NDP - Windsor West
NDP - Windsor-Tecumseh
Lib - York Centre
Lib - York South-Weston
Lib - York West
CPC - York-Simcoe

Riding by Riding (BC)

BRITISH COLUMBIA - CPC 24 -- NDP 8 -- Lib 4
CPC - Abbotsford
NDP - British Columbia Southern Interior
NDP - Burnaby-Douglas
NDP - Burnaby-New Westminster
CPC - Cariboo-Prince George
CPC - Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon
CPC - Delta-Richmond East
CPC - Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
CPC - Fleetwood-Port Kells
CPC - Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo
CPC - Kelowna-Lake Country
CPC - Kootenay-Columbia
CPC - Langley
CPC - Nanaimo-Alberni
NDP - Nanaimo-Cowichan
CPC - New Westminster-Coquitlam
CPC - Newton-North Delta
CPC - North Vancouver
CPC - Okanagan-Coquihalla
CPC - Okanagan-Shuswap
CPC - Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission
CPC - Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam
CPC - Prince George-Peace River
CPC - Richmond
CPC - Saanich-Gulf Islands
NDP - Skeena-Bulkley Valley
CPC - South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale
NDP - Surrey North
Lib - Vancouver Centre
NDP - Vancouver East
CPC - Vancouver Island North
Lib - Vancouver Kingsway
Lib - Vancouver Quadra
Lib - Vancouver South
NDP - Victoria
CPC - West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country

Riding by Riding (Prairies)

MANITOBA - CPC 9 -- NDP 5 -- Lib 2
CPC - Brandon-Souris
CPC - Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia
Lib - Churchill
CPC - Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette
NDP - Elmwood-Transcona
CPC - Kildonan-St. Paul
CPC - Portage-Lisgar
CPC - Provencher
CPC - Saint Boniface
CPC - Selkirk-Interlake
NDP - Winnipeg Centre
NDP - Winnipeg North
CPC - Winnipeg South
Lib - Winnipeg South Centre

SASKATCHEWAN - CPC 11 -- Lib 1 -- NDP 2
CPC - Battlefords-Lloydminster
CPC - Blackstrap
CPC - Cypress Hills-Grasslands
CPC - Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River
NDP - Palliser
CPC - Prince Albert
CPC - Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre
CPC - Regina-Qu'Appelle
CPC - Saskatoon-Humboldt
NDP - Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar
CPC - Saskatoon-Wanuskewin
CPC - Souris-Moose Mountain
Lib - Wascana
CPC - Yorkton-Melville

ALBERTA - CPC 28
CPC - Calgary Centre
CPC - Calgary Centre-North
CPC - Calgary East
CPC - Calgary Northeast
CPC - Calgary Southeast
CPC - Calgary Southwest
CPC - Calgary West
CPC - Calgary-Nose Hill
CPC - Crowfoot
CPC - Edmonton Centre
CPC - Edmonton East
CPC - Edmonton-Leduc
CPC - Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont
CPC - Edmonton-Sherwood Park
CPC - Edmonton-Spruce Grove
CPC - Edmonton-St. Albert
CPC - Edmonton-Strathcona
CPC - Fort McMurray-Athabasca
CPC - Lethbridge
CPC - Macleod
CPC - Medicine Hat
CPC - Peace River
CPC - Red Deer
CPC - Vegreville-Wainwright
CPC - Westlock-St. Paul
CPC - Wetaskiwin
CPC - Wild Rose
CPC - Yellowhead

Subtotal
CPC - 48
NDP - 7
Lib - 3

Riding by Riding (Quebec)

QUEBEC - BQ 51 -- Lib 14 -- CPC 7 -- NDP 1 -- IND 1 -- TCTC 1
BQ - Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou
BQ - Abitibi-Témiscamingue
Lib - Ahuntsic
BQ - Alfred-Pellan
BQ - Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel
BQ - Bas-Richelieu-Nicolet-Bécancour
CPC - Beauce
BQ - Beauharnois-Salaberry
BQ - Beauport-Limoilou
BQ - Berthier-Maskinongé
Lib - Bourassa
BQ - Brome-Missisquoi
Lib - Brossard-La Prairie
BQ - Chambly-Borduas
BQ - Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles
BQ - Châteauguay-Saint-Constant
BQ - Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
BQ - Compton-Stanstead
BQ - Drummond
BQ - Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine
BQ - Gatineau
BQ - Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia
BQ - Hochelaga
Lib - Honoré-Mercier
TCTC - Hull-Aylmer ** 3 way race.
BQ - Jeanne-Le Ber
BQ - Joliette
BQ - Jonquière-Alma
BQ - La Pointe-de-l'Île
Lib - Lac-Saint-Louis
Lib - LaSalle-Émard
BQ - Laurentides-Labelle
BQ - Laurier-Sainte-Marie
BQ - Laval
Lib - Laval-Les Îles
CPC - Lévis-Bellechasse
BQ - Longueuil-Pierre-Boucher
BQ - Lotbinière-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
BQ - Louis-Hébert
CPC - Louis-Saint-Laurent
BQ - Manicouagan
BQ - Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
CPC - Mégantic-L'Érable
BQ - Montcalm
BQ - Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup
BQ - Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haute-Côte-Nord
Lib - Mount Royal
Lib - Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Lachine
NDP - Outremont
Lib - Papineau
Lib - Pierrefonds-Dollard
CPC - Pontiac
IND - Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier
BQ - Québec
BQ - Repentigny
BQ - Richmond-Arthabaska
BQ - Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques
BQ - Rivière-des-Mille-Îles
BQ - Rivière-du-Nord
CPC - Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean
BQ - Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie
BQ - Saint-Bruno-Saint-Hubert
BQ - Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot
BQ - Saint-Jean
BQ - Saint-Lambert
Lib - Saint-Laurent-Cartierville
Lib - Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel
BQ - Saint-Maurice-Champlain
BQ - Shefford
BQ - Sherbrooke
BQ - Terrebonne-Blainville
BQ - Trois-Rivières
BQ - Vaudreuil-Soulanges
BQ - Verchères-Les Patriotes
Lib - Westmount-Ville-Marie

Riding by Riding (Atlantic)

NEWFOUDNLAND - Lib 6 -- NDP 1
Lib - Avalon
Lib - Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor
Lib - Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte
Lib - Labrador
Lib - Random-Burin-St. George's
NDP - St. John's East
Lib - St. John's South-Mount Pearl

PEI - Lib 4
Lib - Cardigan
Lib - Charlottetown
Lib - Egmont
Lib - Malpeque

NOVA SCOTIA - Lib 6 -- NDP 3 -- Grn 1 -- IND 1
Lib - Cape Breton-Canso
Grn - Central Nova
IND - Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
Lib - Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
NDP - Halifax
Lib - Halifax West
Lib - Kings-Hants
NDP - Sackville-Eastern Shore
NDP - South Shore-St. Margaret's
Lib - Sydney-Victoria
Lib - West Nova

NEW BRUNSWICK - Lib 7 -- CPC 2 -- NDP 1
NDP - Acadie-Bathurst
Lib - Beauséjour
Lib - Fredericton
CPC - Fundy Royal
Lib - Madawaska-Restigouche
Lib - Miramichi
Lib - Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
CPC - New Brunswick Southwest
Lib - Saint John
Lib - Tobique-Mactaquac


Subtotal:
Lib 23
NDP 5
CPC 2
Grn 1 (Yes, we have May winning her seat)
IND 1

Final Raw Numbers

Note, these are our final "raw" numbers, not our final numbers, those will come out within the next 24 hours.


NATIONAL
CPC - 129
Lib - 86
BQ - 51
NDP - 39
Grn - 1
IND - 2

Territories
CPC - 1
Lib - 1
NDP - 1

British Columbia
CPC - 24
NDP - 8
Lib - 4


Alberta
CPC - 28

Prairies
CPC - 20
Lib - 4
NDP - 4

Ontario
CPC - 47
Lib - 39
NDP - 20

Quebec
BQ - 51
Lib - 15
CPC - 7
NDP - 1
IND - 1

Atlantic
Lib - 23
NDP - 5
CPC - 2
IND - 1
Grn - 1

Where is our update?

I'm delaying it in the hopes that Nanos comes out with a 2pm poll today as they normally do. Our update will therefore be at 2:30 eastern. We will then comb over the ridings and reduce our TCTC ridings by a significant number.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Riding by Riding projections

CPC 100 -- Lib 70 -- BQ 44 -- NDP 23 -- IND 1 -- TCTC 69



NEWFOUDNLAND - Lib 5 -- NDP 1 -- TCTC 1
TCTC - Avalon
Lib - Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor
Lib - Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte
Lib - Labrador
Lib - Random-Burin-St. George's
NDP - St. John's East
Lib - St. John's South-Mount Pearl

PEI - Lib 3 -- TCTC 1
Lib - Cardigan
Lib - Charlottetown
TCTC - Egmont
Lib - Malpeque

NOVA SCOTIA - Lib 5 -- NDP 2 -- TCTC 4
Lib - Cape Breton-Canso
TCTC - Central Nova
TCTC - Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
Lib - Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
NDP - Halifax
Lib - Halifax West
Lib - Kings-Hants
NDP - Sackville-Eastern Shore
TCTC - South Shore-St. Margaret's
Lib - Sydney-Victoria
TCTC - West Nova

NEW BRUNSWICK - Lib 4 -- CPC 2 -- NDP 1 -- TCTC 3
NDP - Acadie-Bathurst
Lib - Beauséjour
Lib - Fredericton
CPC - Fundy Royal
TCTC - Madawaska-Restigouche
Lib - Miramichi
Lib - Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
CPC - New Brunswick Southwest
TCTC - Saint John
TCTC - Tobique-Mactaquac

QUEBEC - BQ 46 -- Lib 11 -- CPC 5 -- NDP 1 -- IND 1 -- TCTC 11
BQ - Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou
BQ - Abitibi-Témiscamingue
TCTC - Ahuntsic
BQ - Alfred-Pellan
BQ - Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel
BQ - Bas-Richelieu-Nicolet-Bécancour
CPC - Beauce
BQ - Beauharnois-Salaberry
TCTC - Beauport-Limoilou
BQ - Berthier-Maskinongé
Lib - Bourassa
BQ - Brome-Missisquoi
TCTC - Brossard-La Prairie
BQ - Chambly-Borduas
TCTC - Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles
BQ - Châteauguay-Saint-Constant
BQ - Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
BQ - Compton-Stanstead
BQ - Drummond
BQ - Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine
TCTC - Gatineau
BQ - Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia
BQ - Hochelaga
Lib - Honoré-Mercier
TCTC - Hull-Aylmer
TCTC - Jeanne-Le Ber
BQ - Joliette
BQ - Jonquière-Alma
BQ - La Pointe-de-l'Île
Lib - Lac-Saint-Louis
Lib - LaSalle-Émard
BQ - Laurentides-Labelle
BQ - Laurier-Sainte-Marie
BQ - Laval
Lib - Laval-Les Îles
CPC - Lévis-Bellechasse
BQ - Longueuil-Pierre-Boucher
BQ - Lotbinière-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
TCTC - Louis-Hébert
CPC - Louis-Saint-Laurent
BQ - Manicouagan
BQ - Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
CPC - Mégantic-L'Érable
BQ - Montcalm
BQ - Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup
BQ - Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haute-Côte-Nord
Lib - Mount Royal
Lib - Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Lachine
TCTC - Outremont
TCTC - Papineau
Lib - Pierrefonds-Dollard
TCTC - Pontiac
IND - Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier
BQ - Québec
BQ - Repentigny
BQ - Richmond-Arthabaska
BQ - Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques
BQ - Rivière-des-Mille-Îles
BQ - Rivière-du-Nord
TCTC - Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean
BQ - Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie
BQ - Saint-Bruno-Saint-Hubert
BQ - Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot
BQ - Saint-Jean
BQ - Saint-Lambert
Lib - Saint-Laurent-Cartierville
Lib - Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel
BQ - Saint-Maurice-Champlain
BQ - Shefford
BQ - Sherbrooke
BQ - Terrebonne-Blainville
BQ - Trois-Rivières
BQ - Vaudreuil-Soulanges
BQ - Verchères-Les Patriotes
Lib - Westmount-Ville-Marie

ONTARIO - Lib 35 -- CPC 33 -- NDP 9 -- TCTC 29
Lib - Ajax-Pickering
TCTC - Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing
CPC - Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale
CPC - Barrie
TCTC - Beaches-East York
Lib - Bramalea-Gore-Malton
Lib - Brampton West
Lib - Brampton-Springdale
Lib - Brant
CPC - Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
CPC - Burlington
CPC - Cambridge
CPC - Carleton-Mississippi Mills
CPC - Chatham-Kent-Essex
Lib - Davenport
Lib - Don Valley East
Lib - Don Valley West
CPC - Dufferin-Caledon
CPC - Durham
Lib - Eglinton-Lawrence
CPC - Elgin-Middlesex-London
CPC - Essex
Lib - Etobicoke Centre
Lib - Etobicoke North
Lib - Etobicoke-Lakeshore
TCTC - Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
TCTC - Guelph
TCTC - Haldimand-Norfolk
CPC - Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
TCTC - Halton
NDP - Hamilton Centre
TCTC - Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
NDP - Hamilton Mountain
TCTC - Huron-Bruce
TCTC - Kenora
Lib - Kingston and the Islands
Lib - Kitchener Centre
TCTC - Kitchener-Conestoga
Lib - Kitchener-Waterloo
CPC - Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
CPC - Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
CPC - Leeds-Grenville
Lib - London North Centre
TCTC - London West
TCTC - London-Fanshawe
Lib - Markham-Unionville
Lib - Mississauga East-Cooksville
TCTC - Mississauga South
Lib - Mississauga-Brampton South
TCTC - Mississauga-Erindale
TCTC - Mississauga-Streetsville
CPC - Nepean-Carleton
TCTC - Newmarket-Aurora
CPC - Niagara Falls
CPC - Niagara West-Glanbrook
TCTC - Nickel Belt
Lib - Nipissing-Timiskaming
CPC - Northumberland-Quinte West
TCTC - Oak Ridges-Markham
TCTC - Oakville
TCTC - Oshawa
NDP - Ottawa Centre
TCTC - Ottawa South
CPC - Ottawa West-Nepean
TCTC - Ottawa-Orléans
Lib - Ottawa-Vanier
CPC - Oxford
TCTC - Parkdale-High Park
TCTC - Parry Sound-Muskoka
CPC - Perth-Wellington
CPC - Peterborough
Lib - Pickering-Scarborough East
CPC - Prince Edward-Hastings
CPC - Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke
Lib - Richmond Hill
CPC - Sarnia-Lambton
NDP - Sault Ste. Marie
Lib - Scarborough Centre
Lib - Scarborough Southwest
Lib - Scarborough-Agincourt
Lib - Scarborough-Guildwood
Lib - Scarborough-Rouge River
CPC - Simcoe North
CPC - Simcoe-Grey
CPC - St. Catharines
Lib - St. Paul's
CPC - Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry
Lib - Sudbury
TCTC - Thornhill
TCTC - Thunder Bay-Rainy River
TCTC - Thunder Bay-Superior North
NDP - Timmins-James Bay
Lib - Toronto Centre
NDP - Toronto-Danforth
NDP - Trinity-Spadina
Lib - Vaughan
TCTC - Welland
CPC - Wellington-Halton Hills
CPC - Whitby-Oshawa
Lib - Willowdale
NDP - Windsor West
NDP - Windsor-Tecumseh
Lib - York Centre
TCTC - York South-Weston
Lib - York West
CPC - York-Simcoe

MANITOBA - CPC 7 -- NDP 3 -- Lib 1 -- TCTC 3
CPC - Brandon-Souris
CPC - Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia
TCTC - Churchill
CPC - Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette
NDP - Elmwood-Transcona
CPC - Kildonan-St. Paul
CPC - Portage-Lisgar
CPC - Provencher
TCTC - Saint Boniface
CPC - Selkirk-Interlake
NDP - Winnipeg Centre
NDP - Winnipeg North
TCTC - Winnipeg South
Lib - Winnipeg South Centre

SASKATCHEWAN - CPC 9 -- Lib 1 -- TCTC 4
CPC - Battlefords-Lloydminster
CPC - Blackstrap
CPC - Cypress Hills-Grasslands
TCTC - Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River
TCTC - Palliser
CPC - Prince Albert
CPC - Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre
TCTC - Regina-Qu'Appelle
CPC - Saskatoon-Humboldt
TCTC - Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar
CPC - Saskatoon-Wanuskewin
CPC - Souris-Moose Mountain
Lib - Wascana
CPC - Yorkton-Melville

ALBERTA - CPC 27 -- TCTC 1
CPC - Calgary Centre
CPC - Calgary Centre-North
CPC - Calgary East
CPC - Calgary Northeast
CPC - Calgary Southeast
CPC - Calgary Southwest
CPC - Calgary West
CPC - Calgary-Nose Hill
CPC - Crowfoot
CPC - Edmonton Centre
CPC - Edmonton East
CPC - Edmonton-Leduc
CPC - Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont
CPC - Edmonton-Sherwood Park
CPC - Edmonton-Spruce Grove
CPC - Edmonton-St. Albert
TCTC - Edmonton-Strathcona
CPC - Fort McMurray-Athabasca
CPC - Lethbridge
CPC - Macleod
CPC - Medicine Hat
CPC - Peace River
CPC - Red Deer
CPC - Vegreville-Wainwright
CPC - Westlock-St. Paul
CPC - Wetaskiwin
CPC - Wild Rose
CPC - Yellowhead

BRITISH COLUMBIA - CPC 17 -- NDP 5 -- Lib 4 -- TCTC 10
CPC - Abbotsford
NDP - British Columbia Southern Interior
TCTC - Burnaby-Douglas
TCTC - Burnaby-New Westminster
CPC - Cariboo-Prince George
CPC - Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon
CPC - Delta-Richmond East
TCTC - Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
CPC - Fleetwood-Port Kells
CPC - Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo
CPC - Kelowna-Lake Country
CPC - Kootenay-Columbia
CPC - Langley
CPC - Nanaimo-Alberni
NDP - Nanaimo-Cowichan
TCTC - New Westminster-Coquitlam
TCTC - Newton-North Delta
TCTC - North Vancouver
CPC - Okanagan-Coquihalla
CPC - Okanagan-Shuswap
TCTC - Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission
CPC - Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam
CPC - Prince George-Peace River
CPC - Richmond
TCTC - Saanich-Gulf Islands
NDP - Skeena-Bulkley Valley
CPC - South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale
NDP - Surrey North
Lib - Vancouver Centre
NDP - Vancouver East
TCTC - Vancouver Island North
Lib - Vancouver Kingsway
Lib - Vancouver Quadra
Lib - Vancouver South
TCTC - Victoria
CPC - West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country

TERRITORIES - Lib 1 -- NDP 1 -- TCTC 1
TCTC - Nunavut
NDP - Western Arctic
Lib - Yukon

Todays raw numbers

NATIONAL
CPC - 130
Lib - 83
BQ - 54
NDP - 38
Grn - 1
IND - 2

Territories
CPC - 1
Lib - 1
NDP - 1

British Columbia
CPC - 24
NDP - 8
Lib - 4


Alberta
CPC - 28

Prairies
CPC - 20
Lib - 4
NDP - 4

Ontario
CPC - 46
Lib - 41
NDP - 19

Quebec
BQ - 54
Lib - 13
CPC - 6
NDP - 1
IND - 1

Atlantic
Lib - 20
CPC - 5
NDP - 5
IND - 1
Grn - 1

Friday, October 10, 2008

RIDING BY RIDING

(note, many ridings are listed as TCTC, or, Too Close To Call. Half of these will have a prediction by tomorrow afternoon, and the other half, by sunday at noon. I do, however, reserve the right to update the list on Monday if any new polls are published)

CPC 94 -- Lib 59 -- BQ 45 -- NDP 19 -- IND 1 -- TCTC 90



NEWFOUDNLAND - Lib 5 -- NDP 1 -- TCTC 1
TCTC - Avalon
Lib - Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor
Lib - Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte
Lib - Labrador
Lib - Random-Burin-St. George's
NDP - St. John's East
Lib - St. John's South-Mount Pearl

PEI - Lib 3 -- TCTC 1
Lib - Cardigan
Lib - Charlottetown
TCTC - Egmont
Lib - Malpeque

NOVA SCOTIA - Lib 5 -- NDP 2 -- TCTC 4
Lib - Cape Breton-Canso
TCTC - Central Nova
TCTC - Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
Lib - Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
NDP - Halifax
Lib - Halifax West
Lib - Kings-Hants
NDP - Sackville-Eastern Shore
TCTC - South Shore-St. Margaret's
Lib - Sydney-Victoria
TCTC - West Nova

NEW BRUNSWICK - Lib 3 -- CPC 2 -- NDP 1 -- TCTC 4
NDP - Acadie-Bathurst
Lib - Beauséjour
TCTC - Fredericton
CPC - Fundy Royal
TCTC - Madawaska-Restigouche
Lib - Miramichi
Lib - Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
CPC - New Brunswick Southwest
TCTC - Saint John
TCTC - Tobique-Mactaquac

QUEBEC - BQ 45 -- Lib 10 -- CPC 4 -- IND 1 -- TCTC 15
BQ - Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou
BQ - Abitibi-Témiscamingue
TCTC - Ahuntsic
BQ - Alfred-Pellan
BQ - Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel
BQ - Bas-Richelieu-Nicolet-Bécancour
CPC - Beauce
BQ - Beauharnois-Salaberry
TCTC - Beauport-Limoilou
BQ - Berthier-Maskinongé
Lib - Bourassa
TCTC - Brome-Missisquoi
TCTC - Brossard-La Prairie
BQ - Chambly-Borduas
TCTC - Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles
BQ - Châteauguay-Saint-Constant
BQ - Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
BQ - Compton-Stanstead
BQ - Drummond
BQ - Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine
TCTC - Gatineau
TCTC - Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia
BQ - Hochelaga
Lib - Honoré-Mercier
TCTC - Hull-Aylmer
TCTC - Jeanne-Le Ber
BQ - Joliette
BQ - Jonquière-Alma
BQ - La Pointe-de-l'Île
Lib - Lac-Saint-Louis
Lib - LaSalle-Émard
BQ - Laurentides-Labelle
BQ - Laurier-Sainte-Marie
BQ - Laval
TCTC - Laval-Les Îles
CPC - Lévis-Bellechasse
BQ - Longueuil-Pierre-Boucher
BQ - Lotbinière-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
TCTC - Louis-Hébert
CPC - Louis-Saint-Laurent
BQ - Manicouagan
BQ - Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
CPC - Mégantic-L'Érable
BQ - Montcalm
BQ - Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup
BQ - Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haute-Côte-Nord
Lib - Mount Royal
Lib - Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Lachine
TCTC - Outremont
TCTC - Papineau
Lib - Pierrefonds-Dollard
TCTC - Pontiac
IND - Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier
BQ - Québec
BQ - Repentigny
BQ - Richmond-Arthabaska
BQ - Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques
BQ - Rivière-des-Mille-Îles
BQ - Rivière-du-Nord
TCTC - Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean
BQ - Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie
BQ - Saint-Bruno-Saint-Hubert
BQ - Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot
BQ - Saint-Jean
BQ - Saint-Lambert
Lib - Saint-Laurent-Cartierville
Lib - Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel
BQ - Saint-Maurice-Champlain
BQ - Shefford
BQ - Sherbrooke
BQ - Terrebonne-Blainville
BQ - Trois-Rivières
BQ - Vaudreuil-Soulanges
BQ - Verchères-Les Patriotes
Lib - Westmount-Ville-Marie

ONTARIO - Lib 29 -- CPC 29 -- NDP 8 -- TCTC 40
TCTC - Ajax-Pickering
TCTC - Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing
TCTC - Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale
TCTC - Barrie
TCTC - Beaches-East York
Lib - Bramalea-Gore-Malton
TCTC - Brampton West
Lib - Brampton-Springdale
Lib - Brant
CPC - Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
CPC - Burlington
CPC - Cambridge
CPC - Carleton-Mississippi Mills
CPC - Chatham-Kent-Essex
TCTC - Davenport
Lib - Don Valley East
Lib - Don Valley West
CPC - Dufferin-Caledon
CPC - Durham
Lib - Eglinton-Lawrence
CPC - Elgin-Middlesex-London
CPC - Essex
Lib - Etobicoke Centre
Lib - Etobicoke North
TCTC - Etobicoke-Lakeshore
TCTC - Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
TCTC - Guelph
TCTC - Haldimand-Norfolk
CPC - Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
TCTC - Halton
NDP - Hamilton Centre
TCTC - Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
NDP - Hamilton Mountain
TCTC - Huron-Bruce
TCTC - Kenora
Lib - Kingston and the Islands
Lib - Kitchener Centre
TCTC - Kitchener-Conestoga
Lib - Kitchener-Waterloo
CPC - Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
CPC - Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
CPC - Leeds-Grenville
TCTC - London North Centre
TCTC - London West
TCTC - London-Fanshawe
Lib - Markham-Unionville
Lib - Mississauga East-Cooksville
TCTC - Mississauga South
Lib - Mississauga-Brampton South
TCTC - Mississauga-Erindale
TCTC - Mississauga-Streetsville
CPC - Nepean-Carleton
TCTC - Newmarket-Aurora
CPC - Niagara Falls
CPC - Niagara West-Glanbrook
TCTC - Nickel Belt
Lib - Nipissing-Timiskaming
CPC - Northumberland-Quinte West
TCTC - Oak Ridges-Markham
TCTC - Oakville
TCTC - Oshawa
NDP - Ottawa Centre
TCTC - Ottawa South
TCTC - Ottawa West-Nepean
TCTC - Ottawa-Orléans
Lib - Ottawa-Vanier
CPC - Oxford
TCTC - Parkdale-High Park
TCTC - Parry Sound-Muskoka
CPC - Perth-Wellington
CPC - Peterborough
Lib - Pickering-Scarborough East
CPC - Prince Edward-Hastings
CPC - Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke
Lib - Richmond Hill
TCTC - Sarnia-Lambton
NDP - Sault Ste. Marie
Lib - Scarborough Centre
Lib - Scarborough Southwest
Lib - Scarborough-Agincourt
Lib - Scarborough-Guildwood
Lib - Scarborough-Rouge River
CPC - Simcoe North
CPC - Simcoe-Grey
CPC - St. Catharines
Lib - St. Paul's
CPC - Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry
TCTC - Sudbury
TCTC - Thornhill
TCTC - Thunder Bay-Rainy River
TCTC - Thunder Bay-Superior North
NDP - Timmins-James Bay
Lib - Toronto Centre
NDP - Toronto-Danforth
TCTC - Trinity-Spadina
Lib - Vaughan
TCTC - Welland
CPC - Wellington-Halton Hills
CPC - Whitby-Oshawa
Lib - Willowdale
NDP - Windsor West
NDP - Windsor-Tecumseh
Lib - York Centre
TCTC - York South-Weston
Lib - York West
CPC - York-Simcoe

MANITOBA - CPC 7 -- NDP 3 -- TCTC 4
CPC - Brandon-Souris
CPC - Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia
TCTC - Churchill
CPC - Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette
NDP - Elmwood-Transcona
CPC - Kildonan-St. Paul
CPC - Portage-Lisgar
CPC - Provencher
TCTC - Saint Boniface
CPC - Selkirk-Interlake
NDP - Winnipeg Centre
NDP - Winnipeg North
TCTC - Winnipeg South
TCTC - Winnipeg South Centre

SASKATCHEWAN - CPC 10 -- Lib 1 -- TCTC 3
CPC - Battlefords-Lloydminster
CPC - Blackstrap
CPC - Cypress Hills-Grasslands
TCTC - Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River
TCTC - Palliser
CPC - Prince Albert
CPC - Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre
CPC - Regina-Qu'Appelle
CPC - Saskatoon-Humboldt
TCTC - Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar
CPC - Saskatoon-Wanuskewin
CPC - Souris-Moose Mountain
Lib - Wascana
CPC - Yorkton-Melville

ALBERTA - CPC 27 -- TCTC 1
CPC - Calgary Centre
CPC - Calgary Centre-North
CPC - Calgary East
CPC - Calgary Northeast
CPC - Calgary Southeast
CPC - Calgary Southwest
CPC - Calgary West
CPC - Calgary-Nose Hill
CPC - Crowfoot
CPC - Edmonton Centre
CPC - Edmonton East
CPC - Edmonton-Leduc
CPC - Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont
CPC - Edmonton-Sherwood Park
CPC - Edmonton-Spruce Grove
CPC - Edmonton-St. Albert
TCTC - Edmonton-Strathcona
CPC - Fort McMurray-Athabasca
CPC - Lethbridge
CPC - Macleod
CPC - Medicine Hat
CPC - Peace River
CPC - Red Deer
CPC - Vegreville-Wainwright
CPC - Westlock-St. Paul
CPC - Wetaskiwin
CPC - Wild Rose
CPC - Yellowhead

BRITISH COLUMBIA - CPC 15 -- NDP 3 -- Lib 2 -- TCTC 16
CPC - Abbotsford
NDP - British Columbia Southern Interior
TCTC - Burnaby-Douglas
TCTC - Burnaby-New Westminster
CPC - Cariboo-Prince George
CPC - Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon
CPC - Delta-Richmond East
TCTC - Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
CPC - Fleetwood-Port Kells
TCTC - Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo
CPC - Kelowna-Lake Country
CPC - Kootenay-Columbia
CPC - Langley
CPC - Nanaimo-Alberni
TCTC - Nanaimo-Cowichan
TCTC - New Westminster-Coquitlam
TCTC - Newton-North Delta
TCTC - North Vancouver
CPC - Okanagan-Coquihalla
CPC - Okanagan-Shuswap
TCTC - Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission
CPC - Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam
CPC - Prince George-Peace River
TCTC - Richmond
TCTC - Saanich-Gulf Islands
NDP - Skeena-Bulkley Valley
CPC - South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale
TCTC - Surrey North
Lib - Vancouver Centre
NDP - Vancouver East
TCTC - Vancouver Island North
TCTC - Vancouver Kingsway
TCTC - Vancouver Quadra
Lib - Vancouver South
TCTC - Victoria
CPC - West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country

TERRITORIES - Lib 1 -- NDP 1 -- TCTC 1
TCTC - Nunavut
NDP - Western Arctic
Lib - Yukon

Today's story; Quebec, 2 Greens

NATIONAL
CPC - 129
Lib - 84
BQ - 52
NDP - 39
Grn - 2 (highest ever)
IND - 2


Territories
CPC - 1
Lib - 1
NDP - 1

British Columbia
CPC - 25
NDP - 7
Lib - 4


Alberta
CPC - 28

Prairies
CPC - 20
Lib - 4
NDP - 4

Ontario
CPC - 44
Lib - 40
NDP - 21
Grn - 1 (Guelph)

Quebec
BQ - 52 (Highest Bloc numbers yet)
Lib - 15
CPC - 6 (These numbers have been steady. The tories will likely lose 5 seats in the province)
NDP - 1 (NDP is edging back on Hull and Gatineau)
IND - 1

Atlantic
Lib - 20
CPC - 5
NDP - 5
IND - 1
Grn - 1

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Thursdays Numbers

Tomorrow's numbers and Saturday's numbers will be more robust. Sunday at noon the final projections come out.



National:
CPC - 125
Lib - 89
BQ - 51
NDP - 40
IND - 2
Grn - 1


Territories
CPC - 1
Lib - 1
NDP - 1

British Columbia
CPC - 24
NDP - 7
Lib - 4
Grn - 1 (Saanich)

Alberta
CPC - 28

Prairies
CPC - 20
Lib - 4
NDP - 4

Ontario
Lib - 46
CPC - 39
NDP - 21

Quebec
BQ - 51
Lib - 16
CPC - 6
NDP - 1
IND - 1

Atlantic
Lib - 19
CPC - 6
NDP - 6
IND - 1
Grn - 1

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

New numbers

No commentary

National:
CPC - 127
Lib - 86
BQ - 51
NDP - 41
IND - 2
Grn - 1


Territories
CPC - 1
Lib - 1
NDP - 1

British Columbia
CPC - 23
NDP - 8
Lib - 4
Grn - 1 (Saanich)

Alberta
CPC - 28

Prairies
CPC - 20
Lib - 4
NDP - 4

Ontario
Lib - 46
CPC - 39
NDP - 21

Quebec
BQ - 51
Lib - 16
CPC - 6
NDP - 1
IND - 1

Atlantic
Lib - 15
CPC - 10
NDP - 6
IND - 1

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Liberals closing in on government

National:
CPC - 123
Lib - 93
BQ - 50
NDP - 40
IND - 2


Territories
CPC - 1
Lib - 1
NDP - 1

British Columbia
CPC - 26
NDP - 9
Lib - 1

Alberta
CPC - 28

Prairies
CPC - 20
Lib - 4
NDP - 4

Ontario
Lib - 52
CPC - 34
NDP - 20

Quebec
BQ - 50
Lib - 17
CPC - 6
NDP - 1
IND - 1

Atlantic
Lib - 18
CPC - 8 (May is edging back on MacKay)
NDP - 5
IND - 1

* Note that we uurge caution with these daily-tracking numbers. Due to our three-firm average, these numbers can swing wildly. These numbers will be factored into our averages for Friday, which will be more robust. Saturday there will be no projections as we will be working towards our final projections expected to be posted by Sunday at Noon. This will include a riding by riding list, from east to west.

Nanos and the Polls

We think we've discovered why Nanos' numbers are so different from the other polling firms. It appears Nanos asks the voter "Who are you voting for?" and not "Will you be voting Green, Liberal, Conservative..." etc. This would explain why the Green and Liberal numbers are so very different. It is highly likely that many people who blurt out Liberal to one pollster, would say "Green" to another pollster if presented with that option.

What impact this has on the final results remains to be seen. There is a chance that those who blurt out Liberal will indeed vote that way, as they do not consider the Greens to be a "real" option. There is also the chance that when they get into the voting booth and see "Green Party" on the ballot, that they may vote that way.

We are reserving judgment on the issue and will continue to use our new three-firm poll average. New numbers will be out shortly.

Monday, October 6, 2008

NDP at 21 in Ontario

Which 21?

Hamilton Cen
Timmins-JB
Wind Wes
TorDan
TriSpa
Wind Tec
Parkdale (by a hair)
Sault Ste Marie
Nickel Belt
Hamilton M
Ott C
Hamilton E
Beaches
TB Superior
London Fan
Algoma
TB Rainy
Oshawa
Sudbury
Welland
Kenora

Fresh Numbers

We nabbed the newest Nanos poll the moment it came out. Here are the fresh projections for today.


National:
CPC - 121
Lib - 88
BQ - 51
NDP - 45
IND - 2



Territories
CPC - 1
Lib - 1
NDP - 1

British Columbia
CPC - 20
NDP - 13
Lib - 3

Alberta
CPC - 28

Prairies
CPC - 20
Lib - 4
NDP - 4

Ontario
Lib - 43 (Turner in)
CPC - 42 (Khan out)
NDP - 21 (List will be provided later)

Quebec
BQ - 51
Lib - 15
CPC - 6
NDP - 1
IND - 1

Atlantic
Lib - 22
NDP - 5
CPC - 4
IND - 1

Sunday, October 5, 2008

Polls Pt2

Here are two examples:

In Ontario, Harris has the Liberals and Tories tied at 31% with the NDP at 20% and the Greens at 17%. Nanos meanshile has the two main parties hovering around 36% (one up a point, one down) The NDP at 22%, and the Greens at 7%

In Quebec, Harris says the Bloc has 37, the Tories 22, the Liberals 17, the NDP 13, and the Greens 8. Nanos has the Bloc at 41, the Liberals at 28, the Tories at 16, the NDP at 10, and the Greens at 6

Nanos reports to adjust numbers based on the census data. This can be a good thing or a bad thing. For example, it's known that younger people generally vote less often, adjusting them 'out' might make your poll more accurate, on the flip side if your 'adjustment' is a little off, so will your poll.

For this coming week we will be averaging Nanos, Harris, and Ekos polls to attempt to get a more clear picture.

Polls

We have this weekend a very strange circumstance.
Harris (Decima) has the Liberals at 22% nationwide, and the Greens at 13%.
Meanwhile Nanos (SES) has the Liberals at 30% and the Greens at 7% This is beyond the margin of error and something is going on here. I will attempt to investigate to get to the bottom of this strange occurance.

Saturday, October 4, 2008

Ridings

What ridings could some of the parties expect to pick up? In particular this focuses on the Greens and the NDP which are polling in near uncharted territory during a writ period.

Lets start with the Greens. There are really only 4 ridings that have a real shot at. They are, in no particular order:
Nunavut, Guelph, Saanich--Gulf Islands, Central Nova
To win these four they will need to get around 14% of the national vote. If they want to win many more than these four they will need to get more than that, and this is something that is just not lining up for them at the moment. What if it did?
Ottawa Centre, Calgary Centre, Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound, Calgary Centre-North, Dufferin--Caledon, Perth--Wellington
all of a sudden become vulnerable. Currently, we dont see the Greens raising in the polls far enough to make any of this possible. We also feel the local campaign in Nunavut favours the Conservatives. The Greens will end this election with between 0 and 3 seats.

How about the NDP?
First, in Quebec. They likely will win Outremont. Both Hull--Aylmer and Gatineau are also under attack from the NDP, but the party needs to pick it up to win here. At a time they appeared ready to take more, but with current poll numbers that seems unlikely.
Edmonton Strathcona is in danger of falling to the NDP, as are numerous ridings in Saskatchewan and BC, where the party has historically been strong. The NDP also appears ready to take St.John's east. Election results in Nova Scotia this election may be similar to 1997 for the NDP. In New Brunswick there are limited opportunities, but Madawaksa could fall. What about Ontario? The NDP could really pick up seats, but where? Places like Algoma, Thunder Bay, Oshawa, Davenport, Sudbury, Welland, Kenora, Peterborough, London, Essex, Chatham, Guelph, and even Ancaster (in that order) could be vulnerable. St. Catharines has been called Canada's modern bellwether. If the NDP is truly to take the official opposition, expect them to take that seat.

Update

Please note that we will continue our daily tracking on Monday and follow it though until our final projection at noon on the 13th.

National:
CPC - 138
Lib - 78
BQ - 51
NDP - 38
Grn - 1
IND - 2


Territories
CPC - 1
Lib - 1
NDP - 1

British Columbia
CPC - 22
NDP - 11
Lib - 3

Alberta
CPC - 27
NDP - 1 (Strathcona, by a marginal margin)

Prairies
CPC - 20
Lib - 5
NDP - 3

Ontario
CPC - 51
Lib - 37
NDP - 18
* (Greens within striking distance in Guelph)

Quebec
BQ - 51
Lib - 12
CPC - 10
NDP - 1
IND - 1

Atlantic
Lib - 20
CPC - 7
NDP - 3
Grn - 1
IND - 1

Monday, September 29, 2008

National Numbers

We are still working on our new calculation system, but we do have new national numbers.


CPC-148
Lib-72
BQ-48
NDP-38
IND-2
Grn-0

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Update by monday night

I'm getting the new "projection engine" up and running as well. We will now be able to make projections that are more accurate than ever before.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Please accept my apologies.

I am having personal problems right now, and have had limited time to update this blog. Please accept my apologies. An update should be here by Friday at the latest

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Liberals down, NDP up

We are still working on our new calculation sheets, but I can tell you now that in general, the Liberals are down and the NDP is up. This is likely only a minor difference of a few seats, but something is going on in Quebec. Exactly what, remains to be seen.

Monday, September 22, 2008

Methodology Update

Due to radically differing polls (Nanos showing the Liberals making a shocking recovery, and Angus Reid showing them skirting the lowest poll numbers ever) we are going to re-tool our methodology. The new weighting system will be designed to weight polling firms more equally. Currently, we feel we are over-weighting firms that post polls often. This will also allow us to add pollsters who do more limited polls (like Leger in Quebec)

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Trends




We've made a graph of the trends from our projections. Note that the first projection has the corrected numbers of 123-121 as our original projection had a input error in saskatchewan.

Numbers still stable




The numbers have not moved much in the past week. Seats have changed hands here and there but all within a narrow range. The numbers, it seems, remain fairly stable.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Update Delayed

Unfortunately our update for this afternoon will have to be slightly delayed (hopefully just to tonight, if not then tomorrow) due to serious connection problems on my end.

Numbers stable again

There are no changes to our projections with the addition of today's polls. There are many seats, however, that are on the cusp and are in danger of falling. One is Hull, where our current projections have the NDP winning by less than 500 votes over the Liberals. As before we will include our numbers in text format for those with disabilities to improve the accessibility of this site.


National Numbers.
Conservative Party / C.P.C. = 151 seats.
Popular Vote = 37.79%

Liberal Party / Lib = 89 seats.
Popular Vote = 29.09%

Bloc Quebecois / B.Q. = 37 seats.
Popular Vote = 7.75%

New Democratic Party / N.D.P. = 29 seats.
Popular Vote = 17.08%

Green Party / Grn = 0 seats.
Popular Vote = 9.74%

Others / Oth = 2 seats.


Atlantic Canada.
C.P.C. = 9
Lib = 17
N.D.P. = 5
Others = 1

Quebec.
B.Q. = 37
C.P.C. = 18
Lib = 17
NDP = 2
Others = 1

Ontario.
Lib = 49
C.P.C. = 48
N.D.P. = 9

Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
C.P.C. = 23
N.D.P. = 4
Lib = 1

Alberta.
C.P.C. = 28

British Columbia.
C.P.C. = 24
N.D.P. = 8
Lib = 4

The Territories.
C.P.C. = 1
Lib = 1
N.D.P. = 1

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Regional shifts




There are some significant shifts with the addition of today’s polls. The weighting of the pro-Tory trend in the Atlantic has come out in full. The Tories are projected to win at least 9 seats here and have knocked the Greens off the board. Meanwhile, the Tories have lost support and seats in Ontario and Quebec. The Bloc is also staging a resurgence. Not due to increasing poll numbers, but due to weakening Conservative ones. I'm very curious to see where this all stands at the end of the week

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

No changes from this morning

This afternoon's polls have been added to the matrix, but there is no change in seats from this morning. The Tories are very close to losing seats in Quebec. Here are the numbers for those who are vision impaired who may be using computer-assisted devices reading this blog.

Tories - 148
Liberals - 92
Bloc - 35
NDP - 30
Green - 1
Indp't - 2

Liberals up in Quebec



A growing liberal resurgence in Quebec is becoming the new trend. Right now the numbers are not enough to change many seats, but that could change by the time that this afternoons polls are weighted into the matrix.

Monday, September 15, 2008

Bloc overtakes NDP in seats



The Bloc Quebecois is projected to win more seats than the NDP. This is partly due to NDP weakness in areas like British Columbia, and a resurgance of Bloc strength in Quebec. The NDP still stands strong in Quebec, we expect them to win two ridings, and there's a small possibility they could take up to five (including that of Bloc leader, Gilles Duceppe!)

The Greens are edging closer to a seat in BC. Not Blair Wilson's seat (that one is going solidly Conservative) but rather the riding of Saanich--Gulf Island where senior Green, Andrew Lewis is running. They are within a few points here and with polls shwoing up to 25% of canadians are willing to vote strategically to defeat the Conservatives, its not out of the realm of possibility that they can win here. Having two MP's in Ottawa will help the Greens emmensley; someone needs to second your bills.

The Greens are also threathening a win in Ontario, in Ottawa Centre. Beyond that, how the recent by-election has changed the field in Guelph remains to be seen, knowing that the Greens are best positioned to unseat the Liberals here, we might find that NDP voters have moved to the Greens. This, of course, remains to be seen.

The Liberals have seen a rebound, and the Tories have dropped from majority status. This is partly due to our updated projection methods in Ontario.

Note that our riding by riding projections have been updated as well.

Sunday, September 14, 2008

More on Methodology

Questions have come up as to exactly what our Methodology is, and how we differ from other prediction websites out there? That's simple. Our projections are, at their base, a geometric projection. This is done by taking the poll numbers and applying it to the last election in a way so that if a party is polling at 10% in a province they polled 5% in last election, then all their numbers are doubled. Therefore a riding where they took 5,000 votes, we project they will take 10,000 this time.

What makes our methods different is how we arrive at those polls. Rather then use a straight 5-poll average, we average out all the polls in the past 7 days. We give each poll a "Weight", the default is 9. If the same polling firm has put out many polls in the past 7 days, the "Weight" of their older polls is less then 9 (7 for the second poll, 5 for the third, 3 for the fourth, etc) Also, polls 4 days or older are given a weight below 9 as well. This gives us a full range of opinion that is affected less by one-poll changes then a 5 poll average is. Currently we have 15 polls in our "average", and half of the "weight" comes from the 5 polls taken over the past 3 days.

The second way we differ is what we do once the geometric projection has been completed. We use that projection to find seats that are close, say within 3% or less. We then look at each of those ridings individually and judge if there is any reason the numbers might be wrong. Did a star run here last time who is not running this time? Is the opposite true? Has the incumbent resigned? so on and so forth. When combined with the numbers this gives us a powerful picture of what is going on electorally across the country.

The differences between our methodology and that of others comes out most clear in Quebec. Currently we are projecting the highest numbers for both the Tories and NDP, and lowest for the Liberals and the Bloc. This comes from our Quebec numbers. There is often doubt and people want to discount the numbers when they tell you something that seems incredible (like the NDP winning Hull) but we trust our numbers and methodology in this case. It was my using of these numbers to project 10 Tories in Quebec (and going against every prediction website in the country in doing so) that motivated me to run my own site this time. We have strong confidence in our Quebec numbers.

Numbers stable


The addition of 5 new polls and dropping of 2 old ones has a net change of only two seats on the numbers. The "Election Norm" appears to have set in, and this is where the parties will be fighting from for the next month.

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Tories on cusp of Majority

The Tories have dropped a few seats since the last projection. This now puts them at 154, which is right on the borderline of a majority. The opposition would have a total of 154 seat in this instance, leaving the two sides tied. Considering that both Independents lean to the right, this would give the Conservative and effective majority, but not a solid one.

Who is on my list?

In order to keep this site up to date, I need to look at information from many sources. The two most well known websites I visit are Democratic Space run by Greg Morrow, and Election Prediction run by a team headed by Milton Chan. I've mentioned both of these before, but where else do I look for information? I often find myself going to a specific wikipedia page to find out the most recent polls. I also check out Polling Report and NoDice for the same reasons. I also check out LISPOP and the Paulitics blog as well as the election website for our two major media networks, the CBC and CTV Finally I use the UBC election forecaster to project all results.

Friday, September 12, 2008

Nanos Polling




We have now been able to add Nanos Polling to our projections. The only noticeable change is in Ontario.

Small update

I've taken Tory "Star" Candidate, Gail Shea, and NDP "Star" Candidate, Jack Harris, into more account and have updated my projection from the Atlantic provinces.


Surprise!

It’s the end of the first week of the election campaign, and something that was unthinkable only a week ago has happened, at least according to our projections. The Tories are set to win a Majority Government.



Beyond this (which should be coming more clear for the poll-watchers) we have other things we are keeping our eye on.

Gilles Duceppe might be in trouble in his own riding, especially if voters start to associate him with the Bloc's slide. Our numbers put the NDP 5 points behind the Bloc leader in his own riding.

The NDP walks away with 3 seats from Quebec. Outremont and Hull (which they win purely on the numbers, despite having two star candidates here) as well as Westmount.

Ignatieff is knocked out of his own seat as the Tories pick up their first Toronto seat. This is by a wide margin.

The Liberals are shut out of Manitoba

The Tories are shut out of Nova Scotia

On the island of Montreal, the ridings of Lac-Saint-Louis and Peirrefonds-Dollard are threatening to go Tory blue.

The Tories are poised to win 23 seats in Quebec. The numbers alone show them winning 21, with Shefford and Gatineau being a 3-way race. We believe that enough Liberals will vote Tory in election day to defeat the Bloc.

Our polling “work sheet” and more riding-by-riding projections will be put up on our forum shortly.

Adjustment to Polls

As of today, we feel that we now have enough polls that have been published in September to drop our older polls from August. This will allow us to drop the polls which did not account for all 5 parties (thereby making our poll projections add up to more than 100%). We will be adopting a new methodology where we do not accept polls that do not show the result for all 5 parties. It appears as though Environics, Ekos, the Strategic Council, and Nanos (former SES) will be taking regular polls throughout the election, so we do not expect the missing of one or two polls to be a problem as we fully expect 40-60 polls during the election.