Sunday, December 28, 2008

Current political scene

We have punched in the only two polls since Ignatieff became Liberal leader into our calculator and have come up with these rough results.


TER
CPC - 3

BC
CPC - 28
Lib - 4
NDP - 4

AB
CPC - 28

SK
CPC - 13
Lib - 1

MB
CPC - 10
NDP - 4


NL
Lib - 5
CPC - 1
NDP - 1

PE
Lib - 4

NS
Lib - 4
CPC - 3
NDP - 3
IND - 1

NB
Lib - 6
CPC - 3
NDP - 1


QC (biggest region to support the coalition)
BQ - 46
Lib - 21
CPC - 6
NDP - 1
IND - 1

ON (biggest swing to support for the government)
CPC - 65
Lib - 37
NDP - 4



TOTALS
CPC - 160
Lib - 82
BQ - 46
NDP - 18
IND - 2

This is quite a change in fortunes for the Liberals who, only a month ago, were projected at 35 seats. We will see if this can hold when the January polls come out.

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Quebec Election, results

Barring a recount, the results appear to be

PLQ - 66
PQ - 51
ADQ - 7
QS - 1

This is a large enough majority for Charest to work with. At some points earlier in the night it appeared he might only win 63, 64, or 65 seats; in which case a single by-election loss or defection could destroy his majority. He has a nice comfort zone to work with here.

The big story of the night, at least from the way I see it, is the seat win by the QS. What will all of this mean? Does the PQ have to worry about bleeding votes to the left? Does the ADQ have to worry about being replaced as the "other" party? Does the PLQ have to worry about a new party that can win seats on Montreal in a way the PQ never could? Time will tell I suppose, for all we know the QS will go the way of the Alberta Alliance and be wiped off the map next election.

As for the predictions, I think it's safe to say yet again that we were all off. One problem that I see is that there are so many predicto sites out there run by a single person. One person with one method can fail, we here at niXtuff will be looking into this issue in the coming days.

The ADQ over-preformed most expectations taking 7 seats, everyone had them at 4. If these three extra seats were added to the PLQ total it would reach 69, which is in the range of many predictions. The PQ also over preformed, and our last-second call for the PQ in Mercier is as close as it gets to anyone expecting a QS victory. There are still a few seats that were close, shefford for example, where a recount may turn the result over. We will keep our eyes open and keep you informed.

Dumont has decided to call it quits. As we've mentioned earlier, Eric Caire is the only ADQ "star" who had a chance at winning. He did win. We project he will be the next leader of the ADQ.

Monday, December 8, 2008

Quebec Election, update

Sadly, this will be the last update before I head off to work.

The Liberals are back in majority territory (just barely), but clearly it will not be as large a majority as we had projected. This is partly due to PQ strength, and the ADQ doing better than expected.

PLQ - 67
PQ - 50
ADQ - 7
QS - 1

Quebec Election, counting votes

PLQ is down to 61 seats according to the CBC

PLQ - 61 (minority)
PQ - 53
ADQ - 9
QS - 1

Quebec Election, current standings

If these numbers hold, it could be big trouble for the PLQ.

PLQ - 64
PQ - 50
ADQ - 9
QS - 1

Again, it is still early.

Quebec Election partial results

Current leading/elected standings:

PLQ - 69
PQ - 45
ADQ - 5
QS - 1

We note that it took until our very last update before we dropped our projection for the single QS seat. We had it close all along.

Sunday, December 7, 2008

Polls

We've combined polls from the Strategic Counsel http://www.thestrategiccounsel.com/our_news/polls/2008-12-04%20globeandmail%20(web).pdf - Ipsos Reid http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=4201 - Ekos http://www.ekoselection.com/wp-content/uploads/poll-results-dec-5-final.pdf - and compass http://www.compas.ca/data/081205-CommonsTurmoil-EPCB.pdf to find the poll-average. This multipoll averaging is a proven system to eliminate the static of poll-swing used by niXtuff to produce more accurate projection results. If an election were held today with these numbers, this is what we expect would be the results.

C 204
B 48
L 35
N 16

Note that this is a 'rough' calculation and is not as accurate as our regular election calculations. We are just trying to give you an idea of how these poll numbers would translate. For the record, here is our provincial breakdown:

BC
C 32
L 2
N 2

AB
C 28

SK/MB
C 23
N 3
L 1

AT
C 24
L 4
N 4

QC
B 48
L 15
C 10
N 1

And lastly...

ON
C 87
L 13
N 6

Note that this is not a joke, a type-o, or a mistake. Current polling numbers show Harper with a Chretien style lead in Ontario. In fact for this prediction we over-estimated liberal strength on the presumption that polls are currently over-stating the current tory strength. So what ridings would remain Liberal or NDP?

Assuming we use the actual numbers (and not our adjusted estimates) the NDP wins these 5:
Hamilton Cen
Timmins
Windsor W
Toronto Danforth
Trinity Spadina

and the Liberals, these 12
Parkdale
Beaches East York
Nickel Belt
Davenport
Toronto Centre
York South Weston
Vaughan
Etobicoke North
Markham
Scarborough-Agincourt
York West
Scarborough RR

The remaining ridings, including ridings such as St.Paul, Ottawa Centre, and Sudbury are all projected to go Conservative.

Quebec Election - Final

PLQ 75 (MAJORITY)
PQ 46
ADQ 4



ADQ

Chauveau
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
Lotbinière
Rivière-du-Loup




PQ

Abitibi-Ouest
Beauharnois
Berthier
Bertrand
Blainville
Borduas
Bourget
Chambly
Champlain
Charlevoix
Deux-Montagnes
Drummond
Dubuc
Duplessis
Gouin
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Johnson
Joliette
Labelle
Lac-Saint-Jean
L'Assomption
Marguerite-D'Youville
Marie-Victorin
Masson
Matapédia
Mercier
Mirabel
Pointe-aux-Trembles
Prévost
René-Lévesque
Richelieu
Rimouski
Roberval
Rosemont
Rousseau
Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques
Saint-Hyacinthe
Saint-Jean
Saint-Maurice
Taillon
Taschereau
Terrebonne
Ungava
Vachon
Verchères



PLQ

Abitibi-Est
Acadie
Anjou
Argenteuil
Arthabaska
Beauce-Nord
Beauce-Sud
Bellechasse
Bonaventure
Bourassa-Sauvé
Brome-Missisquoi
Chapleau
Charlesbourg
Châteauguay
Chicoutimi
Chomedey
Crémazie
D'Arcy-McGee
Fabre
Frontenac
Gaspé
Gatineau
Groulx
Hull
Huntingdon
Iberville
Jacques-Cartier
Jean-Lesage
Jeanne-Mance—Viger
Jean-Talon
Jonquière
Kamouraska-Témiscouata
La Peltrie
La Pinière
La Prairie
LaFontaine
Laporte
Laurier-Dorion
Laval-des-Rapides
Laviolette
Lévis
Louis-Hébert
Marguerite-Bourgeoys
Marquette
Maskinongé
Matane
Mégantic-Compton
Mille-Îles
Montmagny-L'Islet
Montmorency
Mont-Royal
Nelligan
Nicolet-Yamaska
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce
Orford
Outremont
Papineau
Pontiac
Portneuf
Richmond
Robert-Baldwin
Rouyn-Noranda—Témiscamingue
Saint-François
Saint-Henri—Sainte-Anne
Saint-Laurent
Shefford
Sherbrooke
Soulanges
Trois-Rivières
Vanier
Vaudreuil
Verdun
Viau
Vimont
Westmount—Saint-Louis

Quebec Election

Final list coming shortly.

ADQ solid
Chauveau
Lotbinière

PLQ solid
Beauce-Nord
Montmorency
Abitibi-Est
Chicoutimi
Gaspé
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Nicolet-Yamaska

PQ solid
Mercier
Marguerite-D'Youville
Saint-Jean
Chambly

PLQ 75 (MAJORITY)
PQ 46
ADQ 4

Quebec Election

PLQ vs PQ (10)
Abitibi-Est
Chambly
Chicoutimi
Gaspé
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Marguerite-D'Youville
Nicolet-Yamaska
Saint-Jean


ADQ vs PLQ (3)
Beauce-Nord
Chauveau
Montmorency



ADQ vs PLQ vs PQ (1)
Lotbinière * (Due to an earlier recording error, this was listed as Levis, which is actually solidly PLQ)


PQ vs QS (1)
Mercier


Solid PLQ +2
Matane
Vanier

Solid PQ +2

Roberval
Saint-Hyacinthe



PLQ 66-80 (MAJORITY)
PQ 42-54
ADQ 2-6
QS 0-1

Saturday, December 6, 2008

PLQ clinches majority

Our most recent update has the PLQ clinching a majority of seats.

Solid PLQ +8 (64)
Arthabaska
Beauce-Sud
Bellechasse
La Peltrie
Crémazie
Rouyn-Noranda—Témiscamingue
Groulx
Louis-Hébert


Solid PQ +3 (40)
Gouin
Saint-Maurice
Ungava


BATTLEGROUND SEATS (19)


PLQ vs PQ (13)
Abitibi-Est
Chambly
Chicoutimi
Gaspé
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Marguerite-D'Youville
Matane
Nicolet-Yamaska
Roberval
Saint-Hyacinthe
Saint-Jean


ADQ vs PLQ (4)
Beauce-Nord
Chauveau
Montmorency
Vanier


ADQ vs PLQ vs PQ (1)
Lotbinière


PQ vs QS (1)
Mercier



PLQ 64-82 (MAJORITY)
PQ 40-55
ADQ 2-7
QS 0-1

Quebec Election

Here is our seat by seat projection for Quebec.

ADQ solid (2)
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière (ADQ)
Rivière-du-Loup (ADQ)


PQ solid (37)
Abitibi-Ouest
Beauharnois
Berthier
Bertrand
Blainville
Borduas
Bourget
Champlain
Charlevoix
Deux-Montagnes
Drummond
Dubuc
Duplessis
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Johnson
Joliette
Labelle
Lac-Saint-Jean
L'Assomption
Marie-Victorin
Masson
Matapédia
Mirabel
Pointe-aux-Trembles
Prévost
René-Lévesque
Richelieu
Rimouski
Rosemont
Rousseau
Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques
Taillon
Taschereau
Terrebonne
Vachon
Verchères


PLQ solid (56)
Acadie
Anjou
Argenteuil
Bonaventure
Bourassa-Sauvé
Brome-Missisquoi
Chapleau
Charlesbourg
Châteauguay
Chomedey
D'Arcy-McGee
Fabre
Frontenac
Gatineau
Hull
Huntingdon
Jacques-Cartier
Jean-Lesage
Jeanne-Mance—Viger
Jean-Talon
Kamouraska-Témiscouata
La Pinière
LaFontaine
Laporte
Laurier-Dorion
Laval-des-Rapides
Laviolette
Lévis
Marguerite-Bourgeoys
Marquette
Maskinongé
Mégantic-Compton
Mille-Îles
Montmagny-L'Islet
Mont-Royal
Nelligan
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce
Orford
Outremont
Papineau
Pontiac
Portneuf
Richmond
Robert-Baldwin
Saint-François
Saint-Henri—Sainte-Anne
Saint-Laurent
Shefford
Sherbrooke
Soulanges
Trois-Rivières
Vaudreuil
Verdun
Viau
Vimont
Westmount—Saint-Louis


BATTLEGROUND SEATS (31)


PLQ vs PQ (19)
Abitibi-Est
Chambly
Chicoutimi
Crémazie
Gaspé
Groulx
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Louis-Hébert
Marguerite-D'Youville
Matane
Nicolet-Yamaska
Roberval
Rouyn-Noranda—Témiscamingue
Saint-Hyacinthe
Saint-Jean
Saint-Maurice
Ungava


ADQ vs PLQ (9)
Arthabaska
Beauce-Nord
Beauce-Sud
Bellechasse
Chauveau
La Peltrie
Montmorency
Vanier


ADQ vs PLQ vs PQ (1)
Lévis


PQ vs QS (2)
Gouin
Mercier


The list of solid seats will not be published again. In the coming days the number of "battleground" seats will be reduced, and they will be assigned to particular parties.

PLQ 56-85
PQ 37-59
ADQ 2-12
QS 0-2

What's personally surprising is that when I ran the numbers, that QS seems to still be within striking range of some PQ seats. This may be due to imperfections on our mathematical modeling system however. Regardless, we've put them up there. Also note it's possible for the PQ to win the election. They'd need to be within 4.5% of the PLQ in order to do so (39% for the PLQ to 34.5% PQ means the PQ wins) but currently polls are showing the gap is larger than this.

Friday, December 5, 2008

Quebec Election

Max and Mins for each party according to recent polling

PLQ = 61-82
PQ = 41-58
ADQ = 2-11

Quebec Election

Today's trendline adjustments

PLQ 70
PQ 50
ADQ 5

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Parliament out, to return in Jan.

Regardless, there will likely be an election sooner rather than later. None of what's going on right now in Ottawa is anywhere near "stable"