Sunday, December 7, 2008

Polls

We've combined polls from the Strategic Counsel http://www.thestrategiccounsel.com/our_news/polls/2008-12-04%20globeandmail%20(web).pdf - Ipsos Reid http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=4201 - Ekos http://www.ekoselection.com/wp-content/uploads/poll-results-dec-5-final.pdf - and compass http://www.compas.ca/data/081205-CommonsTurmoil-EPCB.pdf to find the poll-average. This multipoll averaging is a proven system to eliminate the static of poll-swing used by niXtuff to produce more accurate projection results. If an election were held today with these numbers, this is what we expect would be the results.

C 204
B 48
L 35
N 16

Note that this is a 'rough' calculation and is not as accurate as our regular election calculations. We are just trying to give you an idea of how these poll numbers would translate. For the record, here is our provincial breakdown:

BC
C 32
L 2
N 2

AB
C 28

SK/MB
C 23
N 3
L 1

AT
C 24
L 4
N 4

QC
B 48
L 15
C 10
N 1

And lastly...

ON
C 87
L 13
N 6

Note that this is not a joke, a type-o, or a mistake. Current polling numbers show Harper with a Chretien style lead in Ontario. In fact for this prediction we over-estimated liberal strength on the presumption that polls are currently over-stating the current tory strength. So what ridings would remain Liberal or NDP?

Assuming we use the actual numbers (and not our adjusted estimates) the NDP wins these 5:
Hamilton Cen
Timmins
Windsor W
Toronto Danforth
Trinity Spadina

and the Liberals, these 12
Parkdale
Beaches East York
Nickel Belt
Davenport
Toronto Centre
York South Weston
Vaughan
Etobicoke North
Markham
Scarborough-Agincourt
York West
Scarborough RR

The remaining ridings, including ridings such as St.Paul, Ottawa Centre, and Sudbury are all projected to go Conservative.

Quebec Election - Final

PLQ 75 (MAJORITY)
PQ 46
ADQ 4



ADQ

Chauveau
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
Lotbinière
Rivière-du-Loup




PQ

Abitibi-Ouest
Beauharnois
Berthier
Bertrand
Blainville
Borduas
Bourget
Chambly
Champlain
Charlevoix
Deux-Montagnes
Drummond
Dubuc
Duplessis
Gouin
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Johnson
Joliette
Labelle
Lac-Saint-Jean
L'Assomption
Marguerite-D'Youville
Marie-Victorin
Masson
Matapédia
Mercier
Mirabel
Pointe-aux-Trembles
Prévost
René-Lévesque
Richelieu
Rimouski
Roberval
Rosemont
Rousseau
Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques
Saint-Hyacinthe
Saint-Jean
Saint-Maurice
Taillon
Taschereau
Terrebonne
Ungava
Vachon
Verchères



PLQ

Abitibi-Est
Acadie
Anjou
Argenteuil
Arthabaska
Beauce-Nord
Beauce-Sud
Bellechasse
Bonaventure
Bourassa-Sauvé
Brome-Missisquoi
Chapleau
Charlesbourg
Châteauguay
Chicoutimi
Chomedey
Crémazie
D'Arcy-McGee
Fabre
Frontenac
Gaspé
Gatineau
Groulx
Hull
Huntingdon
Iberville
Jacques-Cartier
Jean-Lesage
Jeanne-Mance—Viger
Jean-Talon
Jonquière
Kamouraska-Témiscouata
La Peltrie
La Pinière
La Prairie
LaFontaine
Laporte
Laurier-Dorion
Laval-des-Rapides
Laviolette
Lévis
Louis-Hébert
Marguerite-Bourgeoys
Marquette
Maskinongé
Matane
Mégantic-Compton
Mille-Îles
Montmagny-L'Islet
Montmorency
Mont-Royal
Nelligan
Nicolet-Yamaska
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce
Orford
Outremont
Papineau
Pontiac
Portneuf
Richmond
Robert-Baldwin
Rouyn-Noranda—Témiscamingue
Saint-François
Saint-Henri—Sainte-Anne
Saint-Laurent
Shefford
Sherbrooke
Soulanges
Trois-Rivières
Vanier
Vaudreuil
Verdun
Viau
Vimont
Westmount—Saint-Louis

Quebec Election

Final list coming shortly.

ADQ solid
Chauveau
Lotbinière

PLQ solid
Beauce-Nord
Montmorency
Abitibi-Est
Chicoutimi
Gaspé
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Nicolet-Yamaska

PQ solid
Mercier
Marguerite-D'Youville
Saint-Jean
Chambly

PLQ 75 (MAJORITY)
PQ 46
ADQ 4

Quebec Election

PLQ vs PQ (10)
Abitibi-Est
Chambly
Chicoutimi
Gaspé
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Marguerite-D'Youville
Nicolet-Yamaska
Saint-Jean


ADQ vs PLQ (3)
Beauce-Nord
Chauveau
Montmorency



ADQ vs PLQ vs PQ (1)
Lotbinière * (Due to an earlier recording error, this was listed as Levis, which is actually solidly PLQ)


PQ vs QS (1)
Mercier


Solid PLQ +2
Matane
Vanier

Solid PQ +2

Roberval
Saint-Hyacinthe



PLQ 66-80 (MAJORITY)
PQ 42-54
ADQ 2-6
QS 0-1