Thursday, December 31, 2009

My personal thoughts

-

So Harper has prorogued Parliament. Is he running away from the opposition? You are damn right he is. I may have voted for him in 2006, but I certainly did not in 2008. He's done many things to make me, 'cross', lets say.

Harper plans to appoint at least 5 new Senators and get some form of Senate Reform though the Senate at least. I don't know if he can pass it though the house, but there are good chances he can, somehow.

While I disagree with many of the things he's done, I do see, from my own numbers, that he is headed towards a Majority. So, what do I think of that?

I think it's just fine.

Why? Is Harper not a threat to Democracy?

Perhaps he is, but chances are he's not. People said the same thing about Chretien (read "The Friendly Dictator") and Mulroney, and Trudeau, and just about any other PM with a Majority. I really don't think Harper is 'evil' at heart, or that he would pass a bill ending Democracy. Come on, that is ridiculous. He will do, as every PM, Liberal or Tory, has done, and use his powers to unfairly block things bad for his polling numbers. He will take advantage of power and use it to boost his own party. This is not shocking news, the Liberals and PC Party are masters at this, even the NDP in BC dabbled in the practice. One reason why many people do find it shocking is Harper's Reform roots. That's gone now, clearly, and what once appeared (in 2003) to be a Reform takeover of the PC Party, has come out (in 2009) to be just the opposite. Harper was never a small r reformer, he's always been a small c conservative, and now he's a big C Conservative too.

I don't consider myself to be either a Conservative or a conservative. I do like to think of myself as a reformer (small r) and a liberal (small l) and a Green (big G). I do, however, know history. I also know that stability is important. Having 4 more years of a Harper minority and the instability it brings will hurt Canada far more than having 4 years of a Harper majority. A Harper Majority puts the country on a singular and clear path, giving him and his men control over the levers for long enough to implement policy, and see it though. Even if it's not policy I agree with, I do think that it should be given a fair shot to succeed or fail on it's own merits. If it fails, any good government would abandon it, and any bad government will be voted out of office. If it's good policy, than I will be surprised.

Regardless, my point is that 4 years with Dictator Harper is not going to destroy Canada, despite the rhetoric, and perhaps its time to just "get it over with" so that we can watch him fail, and return to another decade of competent Liberal governance, with a new leader who can actually inspire people for a change.

~Teddy


Sorry, no extra data today!

Parliament Prorogued.

-

Until the start of March.
I declare now that we will try our best to have a real website up and running by the time Parliament resumed. Until then we may see reduced posting levels here. I will, however, over the next few days do a final09/first10 projection using recent polling numbers.

~Teddy


Sorry, no extra data today!

Monday, December 28, 2009

End of the year

-

This will be a shorter post. It is the end of 2009, so where do we stand? The answer is that we are in a very similar place to where we were at the end of 2008. The only real differences are in the Liberal Party.

Dion is gone and Iggy has taken his place. While they shared similar polling numbers, Dion was tested by the electorate while Iggy has not yet been. When the 2008 campaign started, polls had said we could expect a 2006 like result, but Dion's fumbles lead us to something different. Iggy could well do better, or worse. He is the only real change on the political landscape.

The only other changes of note are economic. Harper managed to maintain a lead throughout most of the year despite a severe recession. With a bounce back expected, he could well see his poll numbers rise.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Sunday, December 20, 2009

The next election

-

The question everyone comes here to find out is what will happen in the next election.

The answer, as far as we can tell, is that Stephen Harper will win a majority.

Over the past year, Canadians have become more comfortable with the idea for a Harper majority, even if the Tories continue to make mistakes (so would the Liberals)

Ignatieff did catch the public's imagination for quite a while, but after he dropped off the radar, the idea of Harper winning a majority now seems almost inevitable.

If Harper is going to win why is he currently not polling at majority levels? The answer is that Canadians are still looking for another answer. People are not paying attention to the polls right now, they are buying x-mas presents for their children. When an election starts and people focus in, they will see how close Harper is (always within 15 seats) they will realize that he will win no matter what, and that they 'might as well just' give him a majority.

Of course, things can change, but at this moment, Harper looks set to win a majority in the coming spring or fall election.

So what does this mean? Well for one thing it is great news for Harper. It is bad news for those who are currently in a good position to be elected as Tory Leader (and lets face it, at this point that list is very short. Prentice, Flaherty, Kenney, and that's about it) but it is good news for the other possibilities who may be in a better position to challenge in 4 years; MacKay, and Day are two possibilities. Bernard Lord comes to mind, even Jean Charest if he can wiggle out of the Premier's office before his party loses to the PQ. With 4 years of good service in cabinet, Bernier, Barid, Van Loan, and Cannon all could make a solid run.

This is likely good news for the Bloc, as Harper would be much easier to skewer than Ignatieff would be, or Harper's replacement should he dare win yet another minority. The NDP also benefits as the country will move further away from how they want it to be, giving them more ammo in the following election. Both parties will also be free to pick a new leader, which they both likely will do in a few years regardless.

For the Liberals this can be a good thing. It gives them an excuse to sit down and take the party apart before putting it back together again. It is bad news for Ignatieff, who will be out, and also for the current "old guard" but great news for people like Justin Trudeau. Trudeau is currently "too young" to be a realistic contender for the leadership in these difficult times, but facing a Harper Majority, there is a good chance the Liberal Party will be willing to 'take a chance on a Trudeau' again and give him a good 2-3 years as opposition leader without the risk of an election.

Lastly, this is good news for Canada as a whole. Minority parliaments, while useful, often serve to only amplify the divisions that exist in this country. Whatever the Tories do while in office, it will be consistent to a single ideology. Rather than sitting and spinning our wheels, we will start moving somewhere. Weather that is a place Canadians want to go, however, is another question for another time.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

More updates

-

Updates on various items.

Quick update on the Senate, just to note, if Harper pulled the "Mulroney 8 senators thing" he would have a Majority instantly.

In the provinces.

In Nova Scotia, and Manitoba, the NDP government continues to lead the polls.
In Prince Edward Island, the Liberal government continues to lead.
In Saskatchewan and Newfoundland, the Tories continue to lead, though in Saskatchewan they call their Tories the "Saskatchewan Party"
When averaged out, the following provinces are currently horse-races.
BC, between the Liberals and the NDP
Alberta, between the PC Party and the Alliance
Ontario and New Brunswick, between the Liberals and the PC Party
Quebec, between the Liberals and the PQ


Sorry, no extra data today!

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Senate Update

-

As of this moment, in the Senate we have...

Lib - 50
Con - 46
Oth - 5
Vac - 4

Which means that if Harper were to appoint new Senators, that the Tories would have the same number of Senators as the Liberals. 2011 is still the date for the Tories to gain a majority in the chamber.

The "Other" column includes Independents, and "Progressive Conservatives" who are effective Independents.



Sorry, no extra data today!

Sunday, December 13, 2009

Alberta

-

A quick review on the situation in Alberta. Everyone is buzzing about a new poll showing the Alliance in first place. I ran the numbers though my mini Alberta ElectoMatic, and got the following results:

WAP - 47
ALP - 22
PC - 10
NDP - 4

Now I caution, that this is a single-poll projection, and hence, should be taken with a grain of salt.

However, since October, we've had 4 polls; so lets run them though the matrix to get a much more solid projection.

PC - 39 - 35.5%
WAP - 24 - 30.7%
ALP - 16 - 23.2%
NDP - 4 - 10.5%

So why is the Alliance doing so "bad"? Same reason the PC Party does "bad" in our single-poll projection. Their vote is too spread out. The single poll does go out of it's way to note the Alliance is leading in all rural areas plus the cities. What this will translate to on the ground is many strong second places. In order to win, the party needs to solidify its vote, or, just plain get more votes.

You may also notice that comments are now moderated. This is due to a recent spam attack.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Friday, December 11, 2009

Moving to a website, eventually

-

I have some good news and some bad news.

I've decided to reveal the "big news" - that we will be moving niXtuff to a real .com website. The bad news is that GoDaddy, PayPal, and my bank do not seem to get along well. I do not have a credit card and due to that it may be impossible for me to get a website. I am working on this, however, and will let you all know more when I know more.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Please, call me Teddy

-

Along with the news from yesterday, a request. While my real name is Nick J Boragina, online, people know me as "Teddy". Hence, please refer to me as such.

Also, on the update front, with few polls showing little change, our projection remains unchanged.
The Tories remain between 140-150
The Liberals remain between 80-90
The Bloc remains between 45-50
and the NDP remains between 30-35

A province-by-province update will come out later this week.



Sorry, no extra data today!

Sunday, December 6, 2009

Huge news!

-

Sometime over the new few weeks I will have a huge announcement to make with regards to niXtuff. I hope to be able to do so tomorrow, but may not have everything ready by then.

I cannot wait to let everyone in on what's coming!


Sorry, no extra data today!

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Update

-

Quick update before we get back to full speed.

CPC - 144
Lib - 89
BQ - 46
NDP - 29


No commentary.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Thursday, November 26, 2009

Advertisments

-

Good news and bad news. The good news is that I will be ramping up the level of posts, the bad news (to some) is that I will be putting a limited number of advertisements on the blog. Speaking of which does anyone know how to make Project Wonderful ads work with blogspot?


Sorry, no extra data today!

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Down and Up

-

With the threat of an election before the new year being at an all-time low, I am announcing that niXtuff will be going on a roller-coaster ride. First, we will be going down. Activity will slow; but worry not, this is not the end. I will continue to update projections when possible, but will not focus on the visible.

What I will be doing is behind the scenes work. I will refine the ElectoMatic, and likely, release it to the public after the next election (If it works as well as I think it will, everyone will want a copy)

I am also looking to moving to a real website, and not a free blogger site. I will, of course, keep you updated.

We will have our grand re-opening on January 1st 2010.


To entertain you until then, and beyond, I strongly recommend reading this graphic novel / web comic





Sorry, no extra data today!

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Class 2 Transportation Emergency ends

-

All back in order in Toronto.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Toronto - Class 2 Transportation Situation

-

I'm declaring a Class 2 Transportation Situation in Toronto.

The subway is down from Bloor to Eglinton, and was down during Rush hour.

More on our classes.

Class 1 - Total disruption of a Major route (Yonge Subway, 401, Lakeshore West) for both peak transportation periods. Example: When the city blew up.

Class 2 - Total disruption of a Major route during at least one peak period. Example: The unfortunate accident near Lawrence Station that took a life last year.

Class 3 - Partial disruption of a Major route or Total disruption of a Busy route (IE Eglinton West bus, Allen expressway, Sroufville GO line) during a peak period, or a class 2 incident outside of peak.

Class 4 - Partial disruption of a busy route, or total disruption of a minor route (IE Sheppard East, in Scarborough) during a peak period, or a class 3 incident outside of peak.

Class 5 - All other transportation emergencies.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Sorry

-

Sorry for the lack of updates recently. Life.

In general, polls have not changed much, meaning our projection will not change much.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Web Comic

-

A personal post.

I have a webcomic now apparently... I'm more surprised than you! http://nixtuffcomix.webs.com/


Sorry, no extra data today!

Thursday, November 12, 2009

ADQ or NAUDQ

-

More news about the ADQ. The ADQ, who's name in english translates, roughly, to the Democratic Action Party, has managed to be un democratic without taking any actions at all. The Non-Action Un-Democratic party of Quebec, last we saw, was on the table in the OR waiting to be shocked by the docs. Well it got it's shock, and the news it, its not going to make it.

Newly Minted ADQ leader Gilles Taillon has decided to call it quits. The longtime ADQ leader has been embroiled in controversy since he took over the helm. First, his margin of victory over his main rival was two votes, one of which was cast by a Quebec satire TV show. His main rival then came up with some BS excuse to quit the caucus and did so, bringing a pal along.

The long and the short of it is that the ADQ has always been tied to the right. Stockwell Day, while leader of the Canadian Alliance, sent out feelers to the party, and even this very minor back room lip service helped him to beat out the PC Party by 2 points in the province. Harper at first kept his distance - and won 0 seats in the province - then decided to work with the ADQ, winning nearly a dozen seats, and polling, at times, neck and neck with the Bloc. The ADQ in return for this cozy arrangement went from 4 to 41 MNAs and formed the official opposition. Taillon, it appears, did not like this buddy-buddy deal, and wanted to distance the ADQ from the federal Tories. This, it seems, was his undoing.

What happens now is actually pretty clear. Gerard Deltell will, in a short amount of time, be crowned ADQ leader. Caire and Picard will rejoin the caucus, and all will be right again. Or perhaps not.

The ADQ is going to take a hit for all of this. A big hit. I for one expect the party will have trouble finding 100 candidates for Quebec's 125 ridings. The ADQ will remain a third option for Francophones outside of Montreal, but will be just that, the third option. QS will remain the alternative for Montrealers, and Vert/Greens will remain the alternative for anglophones province wide.

The only good news is that Deltell's riding is the most secure riding for the ADQ in the province. Meaning that when he faces the next election, he has a 50-50 chance of getting a single ADQer back into the assembly. Perhaps then, the ADQ can start the rebuilding process.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Monday, November 9, 2009

By-Elections

-

In Cumberland in NS, the Tories have won with about 45% over the NDP at 25%. This is what the ElectoMatic was suggesting.

In Hoch. the Bloc won with the NDP in second, narrowly ahead of the Liberals; again in line with the ElectoMatic.

In Montm. the Tories won, something that the ElectoMatic did not forsee at all, though as noted in my earlier projection there is a strong right-wing base in the riding.

In New West. in BC, the NDP is cruising towards a victory of a larger margin than projected by the ElectoMatic.



Sorry, no extra data today!

Sunday, November 8, 2009

Alberta Projection

-

I finally ran the numbers though the wringer. According to the most recent poll, I have the following results:

PC - 52
WAP - 19
Lib - 9
NDP - 3

Why would the PC Party retain a majority? Because the PC votes and the Alliance vote are very similar. There are dozens of ridings the PC Party is winning here by 5%-10% over the Alliance, meaning much of that vote is being wasted. More to come.


Sorry, no extra data today!

More on Transit

<- Click here to see the full post

This post contains information about the changes due to the busway, and information on accessibility within the TTCs various routes.



With the new accessible routes, more and more of the TTC network is becoming accessible. It is become so widespread that it is easier to list the non-accessible routes than it is to do the opposite. So which routes are non-accessible? Other than the three seeing changes on November 22nd, we have...

All the streetcar routes.

Express routes 142 and 141. Night routes 312 St. Clair, and 352 Lawrence West. As well as the following daytime routes:

6 Bay
52 Lawrence West
59 Maple Leaf
171 Mount Dennis
77 Sweansea
90 Vaughan
71 Runnymeade
117 Alness
160 Bathurst North
33 Forrest Hill
196 York University Rocket

Of these...
171 is a public bus route, but it's primary purpose is to be an 'employee shuttle' getting TTC workers to and from the Mount Dennis bus garage.
160 Bathurst North mirrors two bus routes that are accessible. 196 Rocket is a short cut of a route that is accessible. 77 and 71 bus routes interline with one another, so if one is to be made accessible, the other would have to be as well. 117 goes deep into an industrial area, but the 105 bus, which is accessible, mirrors it on the main drag.

This leaves us with the following.

6 Bay.
This route runs downtown, and is one of the few buses to do so. Most other downtown routes are rail based, either streetcar, subway, or GO Train. 6 Bay is the weak link in the system. Streetcars are not accessible, and many downtown stations are not either. Bay is not far from Yonge, and there is no Yonge bus for most of the day. Making this route accessible would be a very important step towards making the city accessible. The problem is that the bus garage that this bus route operates out of is the newest of the garages, and hence, had last pick of equipment at the time of the move. Hopefully some of the newly ordered accessible buses will go to that garage, and then to this route.

52 Lawrence West.
This is one of the more 'main' routes of the TTC network. While it's sister route, 58 Malton, may be accessible, the fact that this route is not does leave gaps in the network. This route certainly should be a priority.

77/71 Runnymeade. 33 Forrest Hill. 90 Vaughan. 59 Maple Leaf.
All these routes are physically close to accessible routes, but are not themselves. All of them run through residential areas, and connect those areas to areas for shopping or working. They may find that they are the last to be converted.


Also in this recent set of service changes are changes due to the busway to York University opening. The 196 Rocket and VIVA Orange will change, of course, to use this new busway. What may be of interest is that other routes will be changing as well. In order to get the most out of the new busway, a new exit/entrance to Downsview station has been built that empties right on to Allen Road. Due to this there are a few changes. The 105 Dufferin North will use this new entrance, and therefore, not run along Wilson Heights Blvd at all. 117 Alness will also use this new entrance and not Wilson Heights. The biggest change is going to occur to the 104 Faywood route. This route will now head from Wilson to Finch, then down Dufferin to Wilson Heights, and finally down to Downsview. It will connect the two stations but go out of it's way to do so. This requires the removal of service on Overbrook (at least it will once the gaping hole in Finch is fixed) It also means reduced service levels on Wilson Heights. The fact that it connects two subway stations, however, can be a bonus. I personally recommend using it to transit between the two in the event of subway disruptions (as the replacement shuttles would likely be full to the brim of people who do not read this blog!)



Blog Announcement: Public Transit

<- Click here to see the full post

I've decided to make a change to this blog.

One blog I read often is Steve Munro .ca Over there Steve talks about Transit, but every once in a while does a review of plays and movies. I am not interested in either of those two, but rather read his blog due to this focus on Transit. He is free to post about what he wants, as it's his blog.

Well, this is my blog, and I've decided to put the new "Read More" option to good use. I will, from time to time, make posts regarding Public Transit in Toronto and elsewhere. I will, however, hide them 'below the fold' so that those who do not wish to read them will not have to. To begin, our first story, below the fold.



The TTC in what has become an unusual move, has put out it's service changes early. Also early is the Official Service Summary, a technical document explaining the workings of each route in numbers. This document is useful for anyone who wants to know how "frequent" that "frequent service" bus really is. For the record, a "headway" is the time between when the front bumper of one vehicle passes a point, and the front bumper of the next vehicle passes the same point. Due to red lights and traffic it's idealized, of course, but it is a good guidepost to go by.

There are not many changes to look at. In November we get some bike racks, and a few diversions ending. The Bathurst streetcar gets two new trips, southbound, on sunday, in the morning. The only route with a 'true' improvement is my home bus route, 106 York University, which goes back to its last-winter headway of 8 minutes and 15 seconds in the morning peak. The afternoon peak also will see an improvement. In December, the St. Clair streetcar will run from Yonge St to Lansdowne, leaving a much smaller Lansdowne to Keele area for shuttle buses to cover.

Beyond this, we gain some new accessible routes. 107 Keele North, 10 Van Horne, and 89 Weston will now all run accessible low floor buses (or high floor buses with lifts) at all times of the day. Remember, this starts November 22nd.

The last change is due to the busway to York University. A closer examination of the busway and accessible services is in the next post.

Saturday, November 7, 2009

Stelmach sticking around

-

Ed Stelmach has won over 77% in his leadership review, and will stick around as Premier of Alberta. This itself might not be news, but what results from this may well be. If you remember, there were roomers of possible defectors sitting in the PC Caucus that were going to switch to the WAP. With Stelmach staying, and no change visible on the horizon, if anyone is going to switch, now is the time to do it. As we mentioned before on this blog, we expect the real number to be closer to 2 and not the 10 that has been speculated. We also project that if this is to happen, it will happen on Monday (after the defectors take Sunday to think). If Tuesday morning comes and there are no defectors, there may well never be.

The more interesting possibility is what I call a 'passive defection'. That a Tory in a rural riding (one the WAP could well win on it's own) would resign his seat. This would give Smith (WAP Leader) a place to run and win.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Party found collapsed on floor, weak pulse, not breathing

-

The ADQ has been loaded in an ambulence and is heading off towards the hospital. The party is all but dead. According to http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/gone+track+defectors/2195377/story.html two prominent ADQ MNAs have quit the party, including the failure of a politician who recently lost by two votes to another failure of a politician in the ADQ leadership race. Now, the ADQ is a party in Quebec, and Quebec is French, so let me translate all of this into English.

The ADQ is lying on a hospital table, and the docs are about to shock it. They've just yelled "CLEAR" and are going in. The next little while will determine weather or not the party will come back, or weather it is too late.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Some good news

-

Toronto has won the 2015 Pan Am games. Like the Olympics, this draws in crowds, and media attention. Also like the Olympics, this has side effects attached to it.

Economic:
This is good for the economy. People debate weather the games "cost" more than it "brings in" but these are false options. The "costs" often include construction, and the spending on that (by the government) goes to corporations and individuals. The economic benefit is therefore not cost minus 'profit' but cost plus 'profit'. The only one that stands to 'lose' is the Government's chequebook; and since the 'profit' of the games is not taxed at 100%, the games would 'lose' money regardless.

Political:
Being Mayor of Toronto, and to a lesser extent, Premier of Ontario, and Prime Minister of Canada in 2015 suddenly has become more important. We will have one provincial election, two municipal elections, and one, two, or more federal elections between now and then. The job of Mayor becomes much more sexy with this on the table, and it may give big names like Tory and Smitherman more of a reason to run. This would also give Harper and McGunity, presuming they get re-elected, a good 'break' and 'excuse' to leave.

Other:
This likely means much better public transit for Toronto. One of the big things that governments spend money on when they win bids such as this one is building a better and better public transit network to move around all the visitors to the games. Toronto has some great plans, but with the recent economic troubles, it became possible that like other past good ideas that have been proposed for public transit in Toronto, that this one could just become a "what could have been". My personal worry was that this recession would either directly or indirectly kill some of the great plans for transit that we have. Personally, my fear levels have been reduced, and I feel much more confidant about our future.

This is something that will pop up repeatedly, especially locally, again and again between now and 2015. Congrats to the committee who won us this bid.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Thursday, November 5, 2009

Alberta Polls

-

A new poll by Ekos shows the Alliance again in second place.

Province Wide
PC - 34%
WAP - 28%
ALP - 20%
NDP - 9%


Edmonton
PC - 34%
ALP - 27%
WAP - 17%
NDP - 13%

Calgary
WAP - 34%
PC - 30%
ALP - 20%
NDP - 8%

Rural
PC - 38%
WAP - 32%
ALP - 15%
NDP - 6%

More on this later, including an official projection


Sorry, no extra data today!

Sunday, November 1, 2009

What-If, The next step

-

Next, I applied the same idea to more elections. I did a very educated 'guesstimation' of the 2006 and 2004 elections. I then compared it to a 4 party system by combining the PC and CA votes during the 90s. I even then compared this to 1988, 1984, 1980, and 1979 with this simple formula:

The Bloc wins 50 seats in Quebec. In 1979 and 1980 they take those seats from the Liberals, and in the 80's from the Tories. The Alliance wins all PC western seats, and half their Ontario seats. The remainder of the Ontario seats go to the Liberals. (This is very realistic when compared with what we now know) This is for the 5 party system. For a 4 party system, I only did the 50 bloc seats from above. In 1979 I re-added 6 to the Liberals to account for Social Credit.

This is my result:



I present the following arguments:

Since 2004, we've had a minority government in Ottawa. This is about 1500 days. Lester B Pearson lead about 1500 days of minority governance.
All other Prime Minister's combined, lead about 1500 days of minority governance.

Therefore, 1/3rd of our minority governments have occurred since 2004.

As is visible above, so long as the Bloc exists, we will have a minority government 9 out of 10 times. As is also visible above, only then both the Bloc and Reform/Alliance exist, will the Liberals win endless strings of government (9 out of 10). Therefore, I conclude the following.

Canada might be a "Liberal Country" but English Canada is "Conservative"

The Liberals are not the Natural Governing Party without Quebec. The Tories are. The Tories cannot, however, fill that role when split in half. The only time the Liberals have beat a unified Conservative party is either when Quebec is in their back pocket, or when there is 'something wrong' with the Conservative Movement (IE got to ditch Mulroney, we don't like Manning/Day/Harper, etc)

I also present that Minority Governments, in this country, can be damaging. While they have 'worked' over the past few years, I argue that they only add to the pre-existing stress on the country, especially where unity is concerned.

Quebecois have also shown multiple times in the past that they lean to the left, not to the right. If Harper now leads "Canada's Natural Governing Party (TM)" then this could only add to stresses on unity

Therefore. I present the following unsettling conclusion.


Canada cannot continue to exist so long as the Bloc Quebecois exists.


Am I wrong in this assessment? Perhaps. Time will tell.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Interesting What-If

-

I've decided to run an interesting what-if scenario. Over at 308.blogspot, they ran a piece on removing parties, and what would happen. See more info here Click Me! I've decided to add parties. Using the 2000 election as a base, I've decided to see what would have happened in the 2008 election, if the parties were split the way they were in 2000 (PC and CA)


NL
Lib - 5
PC - 1
NDP - 1
(2006 was used as a base for NL due to the anybody-but-harper campaign. Harris, however, was declared Elected)

PE
Lib - 4

NS
NDP - 5
Lib - 3
PC - 3 (Including Casey)

NB
Lib - 6
PC - 3
NDP - 1

ATLANTIC
Lib - 18
PC - 7
NDP - 7

(Personal note - I'm a bit shocked at this myself!)



Manitoba
CA - 7
NDP - 4
PC - 2
Lib - 1

Saskatchewan
CA - 12
Lib - 2

Alberta
CA - 25
Lib - 2
NDP - 1

British Columbia
CA - 25
NDP - 8
Lib - 3


WEST
CA - 69
NDP - 13
Lib - 8
PC - 2


Territories
Lib - 1
NDP - 1
PC - 1


Quebec
BQ - 56
Lib - 16
PC - 1
CA - 1 (in Pontiac)
NDP - 1 (in Outremont)

(See my note later)

Ontario
Lib - 62
CA - 24
NDP - 18
PC - 2



TOTAL
Lib - 105
CA - 94
BQ - 56
NDP - 40
PC - 13


And there you have it. Stephane Dion would have been popular enough to get elected Prime Minister... If the right were still divided.

Note that in Quebec I gave the Alliance the seat they would have won by the math. This happens to be the seat currently held by Andre Arthur. I feel he would have been more likely to run as an Alliance candidate than a "Conservative" one.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Provinces

<- More numbers below the fold

A little news in the provinces.
A by-election in Newfoundland has been won by a Liberal. Marshall Dean is the first new face for the Newfoundland Liberals elected in a decade.

There have been few polls in the provinces, but this also means there are a few polls in the provinces. In nearly every province, the government is due to re-elect a majority. New Brunswick, Ontario, and Quebec, however, are all very close two way races between the two main parties. We do not expect elections in any province for at least a year.


Ontario
72 - Liberal - Dalton McGunity
25 - PC - Tim Hudak
10 - NDP - Andrea Horwath
0 - Green - Frank de Jong - New leader picked Nov 15 2009 (Mike Schreiner vs None of the Above)

Quebec
67 - Liberal - Jean Charest
51 - Parti Quebecois - Pauline Marois
6 - Action Democratique - Gilles Taillon (Sylvie Roy, Leader in the Assembly)
1 - Quebec Solidarie - Amir Khadir
0 - Parti Vert - Guy Rainville

British Columbia
49 - Liberal - Gordon Campbell
35 - New Democrats - Carole James
1 - Independent - Vicki Huntington (Leans right)
0 - Green Party - Jane Sterk

Alberta
70 - PC - Ed Stelmach
9 - Liberal - David Swann
2 - New Democrats - Brian Mason
1 - Wildrose Alliance - Danielle Smith
1 - Independent - Guy Boutilier (Leans right)

Manitoba
34 - New Democrats - Greg Selinger
19 - PC - Hugh McFadyen
2 - Liberal - John Gerrard
0 - Green - James Beddome
1 - Vacant - Concordia, leans NDP

Saskatchewan
38 - Saskatchewan Party - Brad Wall
20 - New Democrats - Dwain Lingenfelter
0 - Liberals - Ryan Bater
0 - Greens - Larissa Shasko

Nova Scotia
32 - New Democrats - Darryl Dexter
11 - Liberal - Stephen McNeil
9 - PC - Karen Casey (Interim) New leader picked 2010
0 - Greens - Ryan Watson

New Brunswick
33 - Liberal - Shawn Graham
22 - PC - David Alward
0 - New Democrats - Roger Duguay
0 - Greens - Jack MacDougall

Newfoundland and Labrador
42 - PC - Danny Williams
4 - Liberal - Yvonne Jones (Interim) New Leader picked 2009/2010
1 - New Democrats - Lorraine Micheal
1 - Vacant. Terra Nova (strong PC), date not yet set

Prince Edward Island
24 - Liberal - Robert Ghiz
3 - PC - Olive Craine (Interim) New leader picked 2010
0 - Green Party - Sharon Labchuck
0 - New Democrats - James Rodd

Yukon
9 - Yukon Party - Dennis Fentie
5 - Liberal Party - Arthur Mitchell
2 - New Democrats -Elizabeth Hanson
2 - Independent - John Edzerza (Leans NDP) - Brad Cathers (Leans Yukon Party)

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Harper falls from Majority

-



CPC - 152
Lib - 74
BQ - 49
NDP - 33

No commentary

Sorry, no extra data today!

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Provinces

-

We got it all:


Ontario
72 - Liberal - Dalton McGunity
25 - PC - Tim Hudak
10 - NDP - Andrea Horwath
0 - Green - Frank de Jong - New leader picked Nov 15 2009 (Mike Schreiner vs None of the Above)

Quebec
67 - Liberal - Jean Charest
51 - Parti Quebecois - Pauline Marois
6 - Action Democratique - Gilles Taillon (Sylvie Roy, Leader in the Assembly)
1 - Quebec Solidarie - Amir Khadir
0 - Parti Vert - Guy Rainville

British Columbia
49 - Liberal - Gordon Campbell
35 - New Democrats - Carole James
1 - Independent - Vicki Huntington (Leans right)
0 - Green Party - Jane Sterk

Alberta
70 - PC - Ed Stelmach
9 - Liberal - David Swann
2 - New Democrats - Brian Mason
1 - Wildrose Alliance - Danielle Smith
1 - Independent - Guy Boutilier (Leans right)

Manitoba
34 - New Democrats - Greg Selinger
19 - PC - Hugh McFadyen
2 - Liberal - John Gerrard
0 - Green - James Beddome
1 - Vacant - Concordia, leans NDP

Saskatchewan
38 - Saskatchewan Party - Brad Wall
20 - New Democrats - Dwain Lingenfelter
0 - Liberals - Ryan Bater
0 - Greens - Larissa Shasko

Nova Scotia
32 - New Democrats - Darryl Dexter
11 - Liberal - Stephen McNeil
9 - PC - Karen Casey (Interim) New leader picked 2010
0 - Greens - Ryan Watson

New Brunswick
33 - Liberal - Shawn Graham
22 - PC - David Alward
0 - New Democrats - Roger Duguay
0 - Greens - Jack MacDougall

Newfoundland and Labrador
42 - PC - Danny Williams
3 - Liberal - Yvonne Jones (Interim) New Leader picked 2009/2010
1 - New Democrats - Lorraine Micheal
2 - Vacant. Terra Nova (strong PC), date not yet set, and The Straits and White Bay North (Strong PC) October 27

Prince Edward Island
24 - Liberal - Robert Ghiz
3 - PC - Olive Craine (Interim) New leader picked 2010
0 - Green Party - Sharon Labchuck
0 - New Democrats - James Rodd

Yukon
9 - Yukon Party - Dennis Fentie
5 - Liberal Party - Arthur Mitchell
2 - New Democrats -Elizabeth Hanson
2 - Independent - John Edzerza (Leans NDP) - Brad Cathers (Leans Yukon Party)



Sorry, no extra data today!

Something New

-

Wanted to give notice that I am going to create something new for everyone.

I am going to create a small table so that I can display riding by riding results easily, rather than having to copy it as in my other post showing all the votes.

The up side is that I can do all 308 ridings in a single image.
The down side is that margins of victory will not be clear.

After I create this I will attempt to update it to show the margin.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Friday, October 23, 2009

Projection Update

-

CPC - 155
Lib - 74
BQ - 46
NDP - 33

No commentary


Sorry, no extra data today!

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

By popular demand, Riding by riding

<- Click here to see the full post



What you see above you recognize, this is the standard posting we make, showing the province by province results. What you might not know is that with each and every projection, our system, the ElectoMatic, projects each and every riding. I've had a request to show some of these, so I decided to show them all. Below the fold is our current riding by riding projections, based on the most recent polling data, for all 308 ridings across the country.

(click on images to zoom in if needed)
(click on post title to expand post if "read more" button is not visible)










Tories take over 2 million from taxpayers

-

The Conservative Party has taken $2,602,581 from taxpayers this month.

But its no biggie the Liberals took $1,815,230

The NDP took $1,256,701, the Bloc $689,478, and the Greens $468,455.

More than that, they'll do it again in January!

Its the quarterly allowances each party gets every 4 months based on the number of votes they received in the last election. Here is the Elections Canada webpage on it
http://www.elections.ca/content.asp?section=pol&document=qua2009&dir=pol/qua&lang=e


Sorry, no extra data today!

Monday, October 19, 2009

Taillon elected leader of the ADQ

-

By 2 votes if you can believe it.

The party had a pathetic 28% turnout of members for their 2-day long phone in vote. If three quarters of your own members don't even bother to vote for leader, you have a pretty big problem. If those who do vote are so divided that one person, a single person, voting for one candidate and not another could change the race, then you have another problem.

Taillon has cancer, something that became an issue earlier in the race when his opponent suggested he be unable to lead because of it. He also 'quit' the national assembly by running in a riding that the ADQ could not have won, even in the best circumstances. Why on earth he wants to lead the party is beyond me. Beyond that, a former MNA quit upon hearing the news, and another one criticized her fresh new leader. This is not what a party able to win does, even Dion did not have such sharp criticisms this early, or ever.

Dare I say that the ADQ has been seriously harmed by this entire adventure. I would not say it impossible for the party to fall to 5th place in the polls, and even remain there though a General Election. I do, however, think they might be able to hold on to a seat or two by the skin of their teeth even if such a 5th placed disaster happens.

The long story short here is that the ADQ is 'toast' for the next half decade.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Sunday, October 18, 2009

New Provincial Leaders pt2

-

So what does all of this mean? Well much of it was expected. Greg Selinger was expected to win, and he is not expected to change much. The only real difference is a new face and name. Remember, though, that this government has served for 3 terms, and there is a history of long-time and popular premiers resigning and being replaced, only to have their party bomb in the following election. It's not a poor reflection on the new leader, but rather that voters grow tired of a party ofter time. Weather the Manitoba NDP is going to suffer this fate is as of yet unknown. Selinger is likely not going to suddenly take hold of the imagination of regular Manitobans, he's a known face (he was finance minister) and a his party is a known quantity. His best bet at winning the next election is to convince Manitobans that he and his party have done a good job and deserve to be re-elected. Alternatively, he can try to scare the voters away from the PC Party. This will be difficult at best as the Manitoba PC Party is one of the most moderate provincial PC parties in the country.

Smith being elected leader of the Wildrose Alliance is bigger news. Earlier in the race, citing trusted sources, there was a report that as many as 10 PC MLAs would cross the floor to sit with the Alliance if Smith won the leadership. With or without Smith, the Alliance made waves when they won a by-election in Calgary, putting former leader Paul Hinman back into the house. Hinman won election in 2005 and was the only Alliance candidate to do so, he then served as leader until yesterday. This was a clear signal that the party is not going away. Alberta has had many one-shot wonders. Parties have been known to come and go, but Hinman's win shows that the Alliance just might have some real staying power.

Lets examine what happens if the defections take place. First, this would mean the WAP now has 11 seats, more than the Liberal's 9. Hinman (presumably) would then become the new Leader of the Opposition, at least until Smith can find a seat somewhere. There is then the question of what the single independent member does. If he joins, it could make for 12 members in the Alliance, but then again he might be one of the so-called 10. Chances are, however, that not a full 10 will switch, if any at all. If 8 members defect to the WAP, they would tie with the Liberals at 9, but due to precedence, the Liberals would remain the official opposition. If 1 member defects, they would tie with the NDP, but remain in 4th place. If these threats are true, there is a good chance that the number of defectors will in fact be between 2 and 8. There is also the possibility of a passive defection. That is a member resigns his seat in a riding that the Alliance could win, allowing Smith a way into the legislature.

At this point, all we have is a hypothetical threat, and a single poll. What we do know is that the Alliance has not vanished from the Alberta landscape. What that means, however, is undefined at this time.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Saturday, October 17, 2009

New Provincial Leaders

-

Breaking news (from twitter) that Danielle Smith has won the Wildrose Alliance leadership in Alberta.

Also, Greg Selinger will be the new Premier of Manitoba for the NDP

Analysis on what this means to come later tonight



Sorry, no extra data today!

Friday, October 16, 2009

Tories up in Quebec

-

A number of successive polls have now shown the Tories up in quebec. This is part of the reason why the party has managed to break the 40% barrier.

CPC - 161
Lib - 74
BQ - 46
NDP - 27


Sorry, no extra data today!

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Harper still at Majority levels

-

CPC - 159
Lib - 75
BQ - 48
NDP - 26

The Ekos poll we added also shows the Tories polling ahead of the Liberals and NDP, even when combined. Our official projection, however, which has a poll-average dampener, still shows a 4 point lead for the latter.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Update Schedule

-

As it is more and more clear that we will not have an election within the new few weeks, I am going to pull back our update schedule. We will no longer update every day, especially when there are no polls.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Tories Clinging to Majority

-

Just as Ignatieff regretted his decision not to push for an election in the spring, Harper may regret his decision not to go to the polls this fall. The Tories are now clinging to a majority by a single seat, and the trendline has stabilized. There is plenty of room for the opposition to bounce back

CPC - 155
Lib - 78
BQ - 48
NDP - 27


Sorry, no extra data today!

Monday, October 12, 2009

Thanksgiving

-

Happy Thanksgiving


Sorry, no extra data today!

Sunday, October 11, 2009

Alberta Polls

-

A recent poll was taken of provincial parties in Alberta, asking which party people would vote for if an election was held today. Here were the results:

Progressive Conservative: 38.4%
Wildrose Alliance: 21.5%
Alberta Liberal: 20.5%
NDP: 10.7%
Other: 8.5%

But what would all this mean as seats? Here is a rough translation:

PC - 64
Lib - 9
WAP - 6
NDP - 4

Why would be PC Party remain so strong?
Well, for one thing, the decrease in the PC vote from the election to today (about 75%) is the same as the decrease in the Liberal vote. That means in any one-on-one contest between the two parties, the winner last time should win this time. The NDP is up, but their results last time were too spread out to win more than 4 seats. The Wildrose Alliance, meanwhile, is up 3 fold. Despite that, there are only 6 ridings I could find where the Alliance result last time could beat the PC result, even with a 3x inflation, and even with the Tories fighting at 3/4th strength. This should, however, put the WAP in second place in a clear majority of ridings all across the province, with the exception of Edmonton and parts of Calgary.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Saturday, October 10, 2009

No posting today

-

Slow news weekend, no posting for today


Sorry, no extra data today!

Friday, October 9, 2009

What do you do in your spare time?

-

What do you do in your spare time?
Me, I play a game called Diplomacy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diplomacy_(game)
You can play in person, or online. I do the latter

This is the website I recommend personally:
http://www.dipbounced.com/


Sorry, no extra data today!

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Tories remain in Majority territory

-





Sorry, no extra data today!

Provinces again

<- Details below the fold

An update to my earlier post on the provinces.

First, coming elections.

Yukon - unknown 2010 (no interest in fixed dates)
New Brunswick - September 27 2010 (Fixed election dates)
Prince Edward Island - October 3 2011 (Fixed election dates)
Manitoba - October 4 2011 (Fixed election dates)
Ontario - October 6 2011 (Fixed election dates)
Newfoundland - October 11 2011 (Fixed election dates)
Saskatchewan - November 7 2011 (Fixed election dates)
Alberta - unknown 2012 (has rejected the idea of fixed dates)
Quebec - unknown 2012 (no interest in fixed dates)
British Columbia - May 14 2013 (Fixed election dates)
Nova Scotia - unknown 2013 (possibly looking towards fixed dates)

Next, provinces, below the fold. There are a few leadership elections (AB WAP, MB NDP, ON GRN) within the next few weeks, as well as by-elections (NS, NL, possibly MB) within that time span.





Ontario
72 - Liberal - Dalton McGunity
25 - PC - Tim Hudak
10 - NDP - Andrea Horwath
0 - Green - Frank de Jong - New leader picked Nov 15 2009

Quebec
67 - Liberal - Jean Charest
51 - Parti Quebecois - Pauline Marois
6 - Action Democratique - Sylvie Roy (Interim) New Leader picked Feb 2010
1 - Quebec Solidarie - Amir Khadir
0 - Parti Vert - Guy Rainville

British Columbia
49 - Liberal - Gordon Campbell
35 - New Democrats - Carole James
1 - Independent - Vicki Huntington (Leans right)
0 - Green Party - Jane Sterk

Alberta
70 - PC - Ed Stelmach
9 - Liberal - David Swann
2 - New Democrats - Brian Mason
1 - Wildrose Alliance - Paul Hinman - New leader picked October 17 2009
1 - Independent - Guy Boutilier (Leans right)

Manitoba
34 - New Democrats - Gary Doer - New leader picked October 17 2009 (Steve Ashton or Greg Selinger) We expect Selinger to win.
19 - PC - Hugh McFadyen
2 - Liberal - John Gerrard
0 - Green - James Beddome
1 - Vacant - Concordia? - Can find no official information indicating the riding is indeed vacant. Only news reports.

Saskatchewan
38 - Saskatchewan Party - Brad Wall
20 - New Democrats - Dwain Lingenfelter
0 - Liberals - Ryan Bater
0 - Greens - Larissa Shasko

Nova Scotia
31 - New Democrats - Darryl Dexter
11 - Liberal - Stephen McNeil
8 - PC - Karen Casey (Interim) New leader picked 2010
0 - Greens - Ryan Watson
2 - Vacant - Antogonish and Inverness (3-way toss ups) Oct 20

New Brunswick
33 - Liberal - Shawn Graham
22 - PC - David Alward
0 - New Democrats - Roger Duguay
0 - Greens - Mike Milligan (Interim) New Leader picked 2009/2010

Newfoundland and Labrador
42 - PC - Danny Williams
3 - Liberal - Yvonne Jones (Interim) New Leader picked 2009/2010
1 - New Democrats - Lorraine Micheal
2 - Vacant. Terra Nova (strong PC), date not yet set, and The Straits and White Bay North (Strong PC) October 27

Prince Edward Island
24 - Liberal - Robert Ghiz
3 - PC - Olive Craine (Interim) New leader picked 2010
0 - Green Party - Sharon Labchuck
0 - New Democrats - James Rodd

Yukon
9 - Yukon Party - Dennis Fentie
5 - Liberal Party - Arthur Mitchell
2 - New Democrats -Elizabeth Hanson
2 - Independent - John Edzerza (Leans NDP) - Brad Cathers (Leans Yukon Party)


Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Defection story grows. Just a bit.

-

It's made it though one news cycle, at least on the blogosphere. So who will it be?

If it's anyone, it will be 1 or more of these 6

Gurbax Singh Malhi
Joe Volpe
Paul Szabo
Albina Guarnieri
Jim Karygiannis
John Cannis

If I was a betting man, I'd bet on Szabo, Guarnieri, and Karygiannis



Sorry, no extra data today!

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Liberals to defect! Maybe not really.

-

Supposedly, there are three Liberals who are ready and willing to defect to the Tories, and could do so at any second, even during the time it took you to read this sentence! while I personally doubt that, its only fair to look at just whom might be involved.

Ruby Dhallia is the name thrown around the most, but with her recent 'problems' I don't know if the Tories would want her.

Keith Martin was previously in Harper's party, and Scott Brison is a former Tory; some might expect them to go back but I don't see it.

So who else?

From a Geographic standpoint, Siobhán Coady might be considered. Her riding is almost certainly going to fall to the Tories next election, and she has tried repeatedly to take the seat, finally winning in 2008. If she were to join the Tories she'd be their only Newfoundland MP and have clear Cabinet potential. Weather she actually agrees with anything the Tories stand for, however, is another question.

Andrew Kania, and Sukh Dhaliwal both have potential to lose their seats in the upcoming election, that could pressure them to switch.

Joyce Murray is a former BC Liberal, and might have some friends over on the other side.

Gurbax Singh Malhi, has opposed SSM. Navdeep Bains is in a riding that could be won by the Tories. Gaining one or both would bolster the Tory standing within the Sikh community.

Joe Volpe has always been a bit of a maverick, and his riding is the only one in Toronto that the Tories are within striking distance of.

Paul Szabo, and Albina Guarnieri from Mississauga are known as more socially conservative liberal members.

The the final group are 4 MP's from Scarborough, Jim Karygiannis, John Cannis, John McKay, and Derek Lee. For the Latter to make the jump would be political suicide, as his riding has become the "new mount royal" for the Liberals.

Weather all, some, or any of the above actually jump, however, is unclear.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Monday, October 5, 2009

By-Elections

-

The ElectoMatic matrix is giving me the following results, at this time, for the ridings where by-elections are to be held.

New Westminster-Coquitlam
CPC win by 4% over NDP

Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
CPC win by 9% over NDP

Montmagny-Rivere-du-Loup
BQ by 22% over CPC

Hochelaga
BQ by 24% over Lib


Sorry, no extra data today!

Tories catch up to the trendline

-

As expected, the Tories have caught up to our trendline. As a result, the trend has cooled somewhat, but remains strong.

CPC - 161
Lib - 74
BQ - 47
NDP - 26

Atlantic
Lib - 15
CPC - 12
NDP - 5

Quebec
BQ - 47
Lib - 20
CPC - 7
NDP - 1

Ontario
CPC - 65
Lib - 30
NDP - 11

West
CPC - 77
Lib - 9
NDP - 9


Sorry, no extra data today!

By-Elections

-

Just wanted to make a quick note that the by-elections we mentioned earlier will be happening November 9th


Sorry, no extra data today!

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Europe and the Lisbon Treaty

-

Ireland has passed the Lisbon Treaty, and has paved the way for it to pass the remaining EU states.

More can be read about this here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Lisbon


Sorry, no extra data today!

Saturday, October 3, 2009

Chart

-

Below is a chart of poll results from the last month




Sorry, no extra data today!

Friday, October 2, 2009

Tories balance at Majority

<- Province breakdowns below

Due to the fact that it looks like there will be no election, I've had to adjust the trendline of the projection to extend further out. In short, what this means, is the current upward trend of the Tories means more, as we expect that without an election (IE a game changer) that it will continue. Therefore, we have adjusted our projection for this, and present both the new projection, using the new trendline, and the old projection, using the former trendline below.

Without Trendline (Old projection)
CPC - 148
Lib - 85
BQ - 48
NDP - 27

With Trendline (New projection)
CPC - 154
Lib - 80
BQ - 48
NDP - 26

Vote breakdown below the fold


NL
Lib - 4
CPC - 2 (Avalon, and St.John's South)
NDP - 1

PE
Lib - 3
CPC - 1

NS
Lib - 5
CPC - 3
NDP - 3

NB
CPC - 6
Lib - 3
NDP - 1

QC
BQ - 48
Lib - 19
CPC - 7
NDP - 1

ON
CPC - 61 (Including 1 seat in the city of Toronto)
Lib - 36 (only 7 seats outside the GTA)
NDP - 9

MB
CPC - 10
NDP - 3
Lib - 1

SK
CPC - 13
Lib - 1

AB
CPC - 28

BC
CPC - 22
NDP - 7
Lib - 7

TR
CPC - 1
Lib - 1
NDP - 1

No Election

-

Looks like there will be no election this November, if at all this year. I will begin tagging my projections as the 2010 election


Sorry, no extra data today!

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Tories continue commanding lead

-

Including results from the brand new Ekos poll

CPC - 142
Lib - 89
BQ - 48
NDP - 29


Sorry, no extra data today!

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Look Familiar?

-

We are projecting the following:

CPC - 143
Lib - 88
BQ - 47
NDP - 30

143 is the number of seats the Tories won in 2008, and is the number of seats they currently hold. The party continues to trend up, and at this rate, will be in majority territory by the time of the supposed election, November 9th. Much of this strength comes from Ontario, where we have the Tories winning 58 seats at this time. The increasing NDP weakness in crucial areas (Ontario, BC, the Prairies) is also not helping. One cannot help but presume that this is due to the role reversal of the Liberals and NDP regarding just when the Tories need to go.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Tories at 138

-

Latest Projection:

CPC - 138
Lib - 90
BQ - 47
NDP - 33

No commentary


Sorry, no extra data today!

Monday, September 28, 2009

By-elections

-

There are a number of by-elections that will come up if a General Election is avoided this fall. The date of these by-elections has to be anywhere between November 2 and November 23, of course there is a chance that Harper could decide not to hold all 4 on the same date, meaning that they could happen earlier, or later.

The ridings up are...

Hochelaga
This riding was held by Réal Ménard from the Bloc for 16 years. He is resigning to run for Borough Mayor of Hochelaga. This would appear to be a significant step down for Ménard, who may be planning to remove himself from federal politics in order to make a move elsewhere, either hoping that his municipal party's candidate for Mayor (The interim PQ leader before Boisclair) loses so he can run next time. He might be taking this step back in order to free himself to run for the leadership of the Bloc Queebcois (a very puzzling move if this is his plan) or as a way to transfer to the Parti Quebecois (again, would not make much sense) Regardless of why, he is no longer the MP of this riding. This riding is one of the more left-wing on the island of Montreal. It is one of the 4 ridings that has been solid for the Bloc since 93. Ménard and the Bloc won the riding in 2008 with 49.7% of the vote. The Liberals were next with 20.7% and the NDP with 14.4%. 2006 saw the Bloc get 55.6% with the Liberals at 17.2%, and the Tories in third with 12.2%. 2004 and 2000 saw the Bloc get near or above 50%. 1997 was when the riding came closest to flipping, with the Bloc still taking near 50%, and over 7,000 more votes than the second placed Liberals. While I would not be surprised to see the NDP creep into second place on a weak bloc showing, I would be surprised if anyone except the Bloc Quebecois wins this riding.

Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup
Try saying that 5 times fast. this riding is as francophone as it's name. Paul Crête of the Bloc resigned in order to run provincially, he lost that battle. In 2008 he managed 46% of the vote compared to 31% for the Tories. What's surprising is that despite the Tories being down provincewide from 2006, they were up in this riding; in 2006 the bloc took 52% and the Tories took 25%. The 2004 election was a blow-out for the Bloc in this riding, easily tromping the second placed Liberal candidate with almost a 2-to-1 margin. Prior to this, the riding was split in two. In Bellechasse—Etchemins—Montmagny—L'Islet, the Liberals managed narrow victories over the Bloc in 2000 and 1997 (winning the latter by less than 50 votes) Whats more interesting about the 1997 result is that the PC Candidate was only 1,200 votes behind. In fact in 1993, the Bloc only win this riding by 1,100 votes over the PC Candidate. That small of a margin in 1993 clearly speaks to the character of that portion of the riding. In the other half of the riding, Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup—Temiscouata—Les Basques, the Bloc won without problem in 2000, and managed to beat the Liberals in 1997. Again, we see a PC Candidate here making a very strong third placed showing. That same candidate was defeated, easily in 1993, but held the riding in the 80s. Going back even further, we find some Social Credit friendly territory here. Long story short, this riding does indeed have a true blue Conservative voting base. The problem, however, is Harper, he just is not well liked in Quebec right now. While I do expect the Tories to put up one heck of a fight, I cannot see them winning here, unless something unexpected happens, like Mario Dumont running.

New Westminster—Coquitlam
This BC riding will be the one requiring a By-Election soonest. Dawn Black of the NDP quit to run provincially, and was elected as a BC NDP MLA. This is a swing riding in ways. In 2008, the NDP managed 41.8%, while the Tories took 38.8%. In 2006 the NDP managed 38.3% while the Tories had 32.5%. It was in 2004 that we saw the Tories with 32.9% and the NDP with 32.6%. It is, it seems, the drop in the Liberal vote that has allowed the Tories and the NDP to fight it out. Going back further, we get more results. I note, however, that especially in BC, these results should be treated with Caution. Many who were populist but moderate voted for the Reform-Alliance, and it was from BC where many Alliance moderates (such as current Liberal MP Keith Martin) came from. I will, however, note the results. In 2000, the Alliance won 44% of the vote, compared to the Liberals 31% and NDPs 15%. 1997 saw Reform win with 34% beating the NDP at 30%. Of note, the NDP Candidate in this election, Dawn Black. The Liberals took 29% here. The 1993 election was a close contest between Reform, the Liberals, and the NDP. 1988, however was a clear win for the NDP, again, with Dawn Black. This riding is clearly a toss up between the NDP and the Tories. Looking at current BC polls, and reading the tea leaves, I would give the Tories an edge here.

Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley
Bill Casey was the longtime MP for the area, who resigned to become a lobbyist. Casey had held the riding since 1988, with one interruption, the 1993 term. Casey, however, came within inches of winning the riding even in that election. Casey is an interesting story, first elected as a Progressive Conservative, Casey ended up in Harper's Conservative Party, before being thrown out of it for voting against the Budget. Casey won the 2008 election with a shocking 69% of the vote, beating the official NDP candidate at 12%, the Tory at 9% and the Liberal at 8%. The 2006 election is perhaps a better refernece point, it saw the Tories win with 52%, beating the Liberals at 24% and the NDP at 21%. In 2004, the Tories took 50%, to the Liberals 26%, and the NDP's 19%. 2000 saw Casey, as the PC Candidate, win 48%, compared to the Liberals 27%, the Alliances 13% and the NDPs 12%. In 1997 we saw the PCs at 44%, the Liberals at 26%, the NDP at 14%, and Reform at 14%. The "Long Story Short" is that this is a strong traditionally Tory riding. The only question, then, is how angry its voters are with the Conservative Party. The NDP is on the rise here, with the Liberals managing between 24% and 27% in the recent past. This is good news for the Tories, in that the anti-CPC vote will be split. The problem then comes from the possibility that there are enough angry voters to actually elect one of those candidates, and if that happens it is truly unknown weather that would be the Liberal or the New Democrat. With the recent provincial election, however, I'd say the NDP has the best shot at winning if the Tories lose. I also say, however, that the Tories will not lose.




Sorry, no extra data today!

And over in Portugal

-

Portugal had it's own national election. The results are as follows.

96 - Socialist Party
78 - Social Democrats (Moderate, Centrist, Conservative)
21 - Peoples Party (Conservative)
16 - BE (Communist, euro-communist)
15 - CDU (Green and Communist, marxist)



Sorry, no extra data today!

Germany Final

-

194 - CDU
93 - FDP
45 - CSU
332 - GOVERNMENT

146 - SDP
76 - LNK
68 - GRN
290 - OPPOSITION

Click here for constituency map. (Does not show PR seats)


Sorry, no extra data today!

Sunday, September 27, 2009

Germany

<- More elections

Now that counting is near done, we can calculate more reliable results.

In the state of Schleswig-Holstein

30 - CDU
13 - FDP
43 - POSSIBLE GOVERNMENT

22 - SPD
11 - GRN
5 - LNK
4 - SSW (Danish Minority Party)
42 - OPPOSITION

In Brandenburg, the Premier has a choice of coalitions
31 - SPD
19 - CDU
50 - EXISTING COALITION

26 - LNK
7 - FDP
5 - GRN
38 - OPPOSITION

or

31 - SPD
26 - LNK
57 - GOVERNMENT

19 - CDU
7 - FDP
5 - GRN
31 - OPPOSITION

Federally, the results are as follows

239 - CDU/CSU
93 - FDP
332 - GOVERNMENT

147 - SDP
76 - LNK
68 - GRN
291 - OPPOSITION

more elections below the fold.


And past elections as follows:

Saxony Anhalt (2006)
40 - CDU
24 - SDP
64 - GOV

24 - LNK
7 - FDP
31 - OPP


Saxony (2009)
58 - CDU
14 - FDP
72 - GOV

29 - LNK
14 - SDP
9 - GRN
8 - NPD (This is a neo-nazi party)
60 - OPP


Rhineland-Palatine (2006)
53 - SDP

38 - CDU
10 - FDP
48 - OPP


North Rhine-Westphalia (2005)
89 - CDU
12 - FDP
101 - GOV

74 - SDP
12 - GRN
86 - OPP


Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (2006)
23 - SDP
22 - CDU
45 - GOV

13 - LNK
7 - FDP
6 - NPD
26 - OPP


Lower Saxony (2008)
68 - CDU
13 - FDP
81 - GOV

48 - SPD
12 - GRN
11 - LNK
71 - OPP


Hesse (2009)
46 - CDU
20 - FDP
66 - GOV

29 - SDP
17 - GRN
6 - LNK
42 - OPP


Hamburg (2008)
56 - CDU
12 - GRN
68 - GOV (first CDU-GRN alliance in a state, ever)

45 - SDP
8- LNK
53 - OPP


Bremen (2007)
33 - SDP
14 - GRN
47 - GOV

23 - CDU
7 - LNK
5 - FDP
1 - DVU (also a neo-nazi party)
36 - OPP


Berlin (2006)
53 - SDP
23 - LNK
76 - GOV

37 - CDU
23 - GRN
13 - FDP
73 - OPP


Bavaria (2008)
92 - CSU
16 - FDP
108 - GOV

39 - SDP
21 - FW ("Free Voters")
19 - GRN
79 - OPP


Baden-Wurttemberg (2006)
69 - CDU
15 - FDP
84 - GOV

38 - SDP
17 - GRN
55 - OPP


Saarland (2009)
(note, no government has been worked out just yet)
19 - CDU
13 - SDP
11 - LNK
5 - FDP
3 - GRN


Thuringia (2009)
(note, no government has been worked out just yet)
30 - CDU
27 - LNK
18 - SDP
7 - FDP
6 - GRN


More on Germany

-

I've done the math from some of the exit polls. Here are the results:

213 CDU/CSU
94 FDP
307 GOVERNMENT

144 SDP
80 LNK
67 GRN
291 OPPOSITION

The CDU is Germany's Conservative Party. The CSU is their allied party, the CSU operates only in the German state of Bavaria, while the CDU operates everywhere else.

The FDP is the German Liberal Party. These are 'European Liberals' and we might think of them as Libertarians over in this part of the world.

The SDP is Germany's main left-wing party, they are Social Democrats by name and practice. The party is generally moderate.

GRN is Germany's Greens. This is where the Green movement started, and Germany is home to one of the world's strongest Green Parties. The Greens in Germany are very much on the left, they are anti-war, and not offended by people suggesting they are socialist.

LNK, or Die Linke (The Link) is perhaps the most interesting party. They are the direct successors to the Communist Party of East Germany. The party is most successful in the former East German states, but has been able to draw in some popular former West German leaders, such as Oskar Lafontaine, a former leader of the SDP in West Germany, who is now co-leader of Die Linke.



Sorry, no extra data today!

Angela Merkel re-elected, exit polls

-

(very) early reports are that German Chancellor Merkel has finally got the Majority she wanted. Current results show Merkel's Conservative Alliance (CDU+CSU) being able to form a Coalition with the right-of-centre FDP (Liberals). This coalition would have a majority of about 4 seats, giving them 8 seats more than the combined opposition. (Social Democrats, Greens, and Socialists)

More coverage tonight.

Watch the results once they begin to trickle in: http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_09/ergebnisse/bundesergebnisse/

Sorry, no extra data today!

Me

<- Click to read more about me

There are a few others who run projection blogs. Some of them hide who they are and which parties they support. Others are out in the open about everything, and rely on their methods to be true regardless of their personal views. I am of the latter.

So what would I like out of the election? I suppose my dream scenario would be a Liberal government propped up by the Green Party in an official coalition. Of course, that's not going to happen, at least not this time. My #2 preference would be for a Liberal Majority. My #3 preference, however, is actually for a Conservative Majority. I really think we need to end this decide-bill-by-bill kind of minority governance that could see the government fall at any moment. To that end, I would prefer a coalition to a minority, hence I suppose my #4 option would be for a Liberal-NDP Coalition government.

So, how have I voted?

In the 2008 federal election, I voted for the Green Party.
In the 2007 provincial election, I voted for the Ontario PC Party.
In the 2006 municipal election, I voted for myself - a "Pro-Transit, Right of Centre" candidate
In the 2006 federal election, I voted for the Conservative Party.
In the 2004 federal election, I voted for the Liberal Party.
In the 2003 provincial election, I voted for myself - in the PEI NDP.

As you can see, I've never voted for the same party twice (though I did vote for the right on multiple occasions)

In the coming election, I plan to vote Green, partly because the Liberals are going to win my riding no matter what.

So, where do I stand on the issues?
I want Senate Reform. On Justice and Security issues I'm firmly on the right. On social issues, I'm firmly on the left. I don't have a problem with government, or government spending, but also think taxes should be fair for people of all incomes. I often say that I want "Low taxes on married gay couples" and challenge someone to find a party that wants that too. Due to my unique mix of issues, I find it difficult to find a single party that I can get behind.

So, are my projections biased in some way? I'd like to hope not. My emotions, however, are. For much of the 2008 election I was torn between the Tories and the Greens. Seeing the Tories edge towards a majority, and then fall back from it, had an effect on me, and is one of the reasons my projections dropped off during that period. When you build your own system, and trust it, and it tells you things you don't want to hear, you can get discouraged. I also found it difficult to guesstimate for certain ridings. How powerful, for example, was Elizabeth May, and how many votes would she get? Again, I think my emotions got the better of me, as I clearly over-estimated this. I'd like to think I've learned from my mistakes, however. I win by being right. The closer I get to being 100% accurate, the better a name and reputation I build for niXtuff, and the more attention people will pay to me in the future; which itself leads to more pressure to be accurate, so on and so forth. My goal is to build a program that can, with few inputs, accurately project the entire election.

More about me below the fold.


December 19 1984 - Born at Scarborough General Hospital, Toronto, Ontario.
1985 - Mother and Father, who never married, split. I move with my mother to live with her parents.
1992 - My mother meets my step dad
1993 - My mom and I move in with my step dad, he lives in Mississauga, Ontario.
1995 - Our family, including my mother's parents, move to Summerside PEI
2002 - Started courses at the University of Prince Edward Island
2003 - Grandparents bought me a car
2004 - Crashed my car
2005 - Left University. I realized I was not ready at the time. Moved to Toronto and took up a job as a Security Guard
2006 - Attempted a private projection of the election. Projected 10 Tories from Quebec when no one else dare projected more than 6. I was spot on.
2007 - Started niXtuff, originally as a public transit blog with occasional political news. That reversed itself, and I finally dropped all transit news altogether.

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Tories ever increasings

-



No commentary


Sorry, no extra data today!

Friday, September 25, 2009

And over in the world

<- Click here to see the full post

In another expansion of our election blog, we've decided to also offer limited coverage of elections around the world. While we will not post every time a single party semi-democratic developing nation holds an election and re-elects their president with 80% of the vote, we do plan on noting elections in the G20.

A great resources for this can be found here: http://psephos.adam-carr.net/ but Dr. Carr does not update with partial results, or sometimes even within 24 hours of polls closing (He has a real job, he's a professor; I don't have a 'real' job and can afford the time to do this)

According to his site, the following elections are coming up...

27 September: Germany legislative election
27 September: Portugal legislative election
4 October: Greece legislative election
9 October: Czech Republic legislative election
17 January 2010: Ukraine presidential election
30 January 2010: Iraq legislative election

We will follow these elections where possible. Germany and Portugal go to the polls within days.

In Portugal, polls are showing the left-wing Socialist party leading the right-wing Social Democrats. In Germany, polls show the right-wing CDU leading the left-wing SDP.

Below the fold is a list of all forthcoming elections (even the ones we don't plan on following) as well as past elections, from Dr. Carr's website.



Forthcoming elections

27 September: Germany legislative election
27 September: Portugal legislative election
4 October: Greece legislative election
9 October: Botswana legislative election
9 October: Czech Republic legislative election
11 October: Guinea legislative election
25 October: Tunisia presidential and legislative elections
25 October: Uruguay presidential and legislative elections
28 October: Mozambique presidential and legislative elections
14 November: Niger presidential election
28 November: Romania presidential election
29 November: Cote d'Ivoire presidential election
29 November: Honduras presidential election
6 December: Bolivia presidential and legislative elections
11 December: Chile presidential and legislative elections
11 December: Guinea presidential election
17 January 2010: Ukraine presidential election
30 January 2010: Iraq legislative election


Recent notes

I am posting notifications of all changes to this website at my Twitter homepage. If you decide to "follow" me on Twitter, you will receive a notice every time new data is added to this website.

I have been unable to locate figures for the recent elections in Micronesia, Mongolia (legislative) and Equatorial Guinea. Any assistance would be appreciated.


I have now uploaded full constituency results for the April-May India legislative election. Since the Lok Sabha has 543 members, this has taken a while. Update: Now with constituency maps!



Having finally worked out (with some help) how the new Ecuadorian electoral system works, I have uploaded full provincial-level results and maps for the 26 April Ecuador legislative election.



I have now uploaded full constituency-level results for the 9 April Indonesia legislative election. This is the only place you will find these results in English and in a comprehensible form, since the Indonesian Election Commission website is unusable if you don't understand Bahasa Indonesia.


Latest electoral news


20 September: In the Macau legislative election, pro-Beijing candidates have won a majority of the directly-elected seats, although pro-democracy groups made some gains. Figures are available.



14 September: In the Norway legislative election, the left-centre coalition of Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg has been re-elected with a slightly reduced majority, despite polling substantially fewer votes than the conservative opposition parties. Figures are available.



30 August: In the Gabon presidential election, Ali Bongo Ondimba, son of the late President Omar Bongo, has been elected with 41% of the vote against a divided opposition. Figures are available.



30 August: In the Japan legislative election, the opposition Democratic Party of Japan led by Yukio Hatoyama has achieved the greatest electoral victory in modern Japanese history, winning more than two-thirds of the seats and crushing the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party of Prime Minister Taro Aso. National figures are available.



20 August: In the Afghanistan presidential election, President Hamid Karzai has been re-elected with 54% of the vote, according to unofficial but apparently final figures. Most observers believe there was massive vote-rigging in the election. Figures are available.



Elections in July 2009


29 July: In the Moldova legislative election, which follows the annullment of the election held in April, the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova, led by Prime Minister Zinaida Greceanii, has been defeated after eight years in power. Vlad Filat, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, is likely to become Prime Minister. Figures are available.



23 July: In the Kyrgyz Republic presidential election, President Kurmanbek Bakiev has been elected with 76% of the vote. Figures are available.



18 July: In the Mauritania presidential election, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz of the Union for the Republic has been elected with 52% of the vote. Figures are available.



8 July: In the Republic of Congo presidential election, President Denis Sassou N'Guesso has been re-elected with 78% of the vote. Figures are available.



8 July: In the Indonesia presidential election, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has been re-elected with more than 60% of the vote, defeating former President Megawati Sukarnoputri and Vice-President Jusuf Kalla. Province-level figures are available.



5 July: In the Bulgaria legislative election, the right-wing Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria led by Sofia Mayor Boyko Borisov has decisively defeated the Socialist government of Sergei Stanishev. Figures are available.



5 July: In the Mexico legislative election, the opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party has made major gains, at the expense both of President Felipe Calderon's National Action Party and of the leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution. Figures are available.


Elections in June 2009


28 June: In the Albania legislative election, the Democratic Party of Prime Minister Sali Berisha and its allies have won 70 seats, one short of a majority, but ahead of the Socialist Party of Edi Rama and its allies, who have 66. After the election a minor party, the Socialist Movement for Integration, which won four seats, announced that it would support a Democratic Party government, thus averting a political crisis. District-level figures and maps are available.



28 June: In the Argentina legislative election, the Front for Victory of President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has lost its majority in both houses of the Argentine Congress, although it remains the largest single party. State-level figures are available.



28 June: In the Guinea-Bissau presidential election, Malam Bacai Sanha of the ruling PAIGC leads in the first round. A second round will be held on 26 July. Figures are available.



12 June: In the Iran presidential election, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been re-elected with 62% of the vote, defeating the reformist candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi, according to official figures. The legitimacy of this result has been widely disputed inside and outside Iran. The official figures are available.



7 June: In the Lebanon legislative election, the March 14 Alliance of parties supporting Sa'ad al-Hariri and Prime Minister Fouad Siniora has been returned with its majority unchanged, defdeating an anti-Western alliance led by Hizbollah. Constituency-level figures are available.



4 June: In the European Union legislative election, the centre-right European People's Party has emerged at the largest party, gaining seats from the Party of European Socialists. Figures from all member states are available.



6 June: In the Luxembourg legislative election, the conservative Christian Social People's Party government of Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker has been re-elected with an increased majority. Figures are available.



2 June: In the Greenland legislative election, the left-wing Inuit Ataqatigiit (Inuit Together) has emerged as the largest party. Figures are available.


Elections in May 2009


24 May: In the Mongolia presidential election, Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj of the opposition Democratic Party has defeated the incumbent President, Nambariin Enkhbayar of the Mongol People's Revolutionary Party. Figures are available.



19 May: In the Malawi presidential election, the incumbent president Bingu wa Mutharika has been re-elected with 66% of the vote. Figures are available. No figures are available yet for the parliamentary election held on the same day.



17 May: In the Lithuania presidential election, the independent candidate Dalia Grybauskaite has been elected in the first round with a remarkable 69% of the vote. She will be Lithuania's first female head of state. Figures are available.



16 May: In the Kuwait legislative election, four women have been elected to the National Assembly, for the first time in the country's history. Apparently liberal candidates generally have done well, but I have seen no figures giving party identities. Names and vote totals of elected candidates are available.



16 April to 13 May: In the India legislative election, the Indian National Congress led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh won an increased number of seats, and will be able to form a new government with the support of various allies. Both the conservative BJP opposition and the parties of the Left Front suffered losses. National, state and constituency level figures are available.



9 May: In the Maldives legislative election, the first multi-party legislative election ever held in the country, the Maldives Democratic Party of President Mohamed Nasheed and the Maldivian Peoples Party have won approximately equal numbers of seats, with the balance held by independents. Constituency-level figures and maps are available.



3 May: In the Panama presidential election, Ricardo Martinelli Berrocal of the conservative Democratic Change coalition has been elected with 60% of the vote. Figures are available.


Elections in April 2009


26 April: In the Ecuador presidential election, left-wing incumbent President Rafael Correa Delgado has been re-elected with 52% of the vote. Province-level figures are available.



26 April: In the Andorra legislative election, the Social Democrats led by Jaume Bartumeu Cassany have defeated the incumbent Liberals. Parish-level figures are available.



25 April: In the Iceland legislative election, the left-wing coalition of the social democratic Alliance and the Left-Green Movement, led by Johanna Sigurdardottir has defeated the incumbent conservatives. Constituency-level figures and a constituency map are available.



22 April: In the South Africa legislative election, the ruling African National Congress has won a large majority in the National Assembly, ensuring that Jacob Zuma will be elected President. The ANC has failed, however, to retain its two-thirds majority in the Assembly. Figures are available.



19 April: In the Haiti Senate election, very few voters have taken part following the barring of candidates of the Lavalas Party of former President Jean-Bertrand Aristide. No figures are available.



9 April: In the Algeria presidential election, Abdelaziz Bouteflika of the ruling Front for National Liberation has been elected for a third term with 90% of the vote against only token opposition. Figures are available.



9 April: In the Indonesia legislative election, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democrat Party and Vice-President Jusuf Kalla's Golkar party have polled about 35% of the vote between them, but but have not won a majority of seats. Constituency-level figures are available.



5 April: In the second round of the Macedonia presidential election, Gjorgje Ivanov of the conservative party VMRO–DPMNE has defeated the Social Democrat Ljubomir Frckoski with 63% of the vote. Figures are available.



5 April: In the Moldova legislative election, the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova, led by Prime Minister Zinaida Greceanii, has won an increased majority in the national Parliament. Figures are available. (These elections have since been annulled. See July 2009.)



4 April: In the second round of the Slovakia presidential election, incumbent Social Democratic president Ivan Gasparovic has defeated Iveta Radicova of the Slovak Democratic and Christian Union, with 55% of the vote. Figures are available.


Elections in March 2009


29 March: In the Montenegro legislative election, the governing European Montenegro party of Prime Minister Milo Dukanovic has been returned with an increased majority. Figures are available.



21 March: In Australia, in the Queensland state election, the Australian Labor Party government of Premier Anna Bligh has been re-elected with a reduced majority. Bligh is the first woman to be elected premier of an Australian state. Constituency-level figures and maps are available.



15 March: In the El Salvador presidential election, Mauricio Funes of the left-wing FMLN has defeated Rodrigo Ávila of the ruling right-wing ARENA: the first time the left has won an election in El Salvador since the restoration of democracy in 1980.



12 March: In the Antigua and Barbuda legislative election, the governing United Progressive Party of Prime Minister Baldwin Spencer has been returned to office with a reduced majority. Constituency-level figures and a map are available. I have also added constituency-level results for the 2004 election.


Elections in February 2009


10 February: In the Israel legislative election, the governing centrist Kadima party led by Tzipi Livni has won the largest number of seats in the Knesset, closely followed by the right-wing Likud party of Binyamin Netanyahu. Overall, rightist parties have a majority of seats, but the formation of a new government will depend on negotiations among the parties. Figures are available.



8 February: In the Liechtenstein legislative election, the governing coalition of the Progressive Citizens' Party (FBP) and the Fatherland Union (VU) has won all but one of the 25 seats in the Landtag, but the VU has displaced the FBP as the leading party. The new Prime Minister will be the VU's Klaus Tschütscher. Figures are available.


Elections in January 2009


18 January: In the El Salvador legislative election, the governing ARENA party has lost seats in the National Assembly, although the opposition Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front has not gained a majority. Department-level figures and maps are available.



18 January: In Germany, in the Hessen state legislative election, the governing CDU-FDP centre-right coalition has been returned to office with an increased majority. The opposition SPD polled its lowest vote in the state in the postwar period. Figures are available.


Elections in December 2008


28 December: In the second round of the Ghana presidential election, John Atta-Mills of the opposition National Democratic Congress has defeated Nana A D Akufo-Addo of the governing New Patriotic Party. Figures are available.



18 December: In the Bangladesh legislative election, the first for seven years, the Awami League of Sheikh Hasina Wazed and its allies have won an overwhelming victory, defeating the Bangladesh Nationalist Party of Khaleda Zia. Preliminary national and regional-level figures are available.



14 December: In the Turkmenistan legislative election, members of the ruling Democratic Party of Turkmenistan and other supporters of President Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedov have won all 125 seats in the Turkmenistan Mejlis. Human Rights Watch commented: "The conditions are not in place to hold a free and fair election that would be a meaningful reflection of the will of the people." No figures are available.


Elections in November 2008


30 November: In the Romanian legislative election, the Democratic-Liberal Party and an alliance led by the Social Democratic Party have won an almost equal number of seats, with minor parties having the balance of power. County-level figures are available.



16 November: In the Guinea-Bissau legislative election, the ruling African Independence Party of Guinea and Cape Verde has won a comfortable majority in the National People's Assembly. Figures are available.



7 November: In the New Zealand legislative election, the National party led by John Key has defeated the Labour Party government of Prime Minister Helen Clark. Constituency-level figures are available.



4 November: In the Palau presidential election, Johnson Toribiong has defeated Elias Chin in a non-partisan contest. Figures are available.



4 November: In the Puerto Rico gubernatorial election, Luis Fortuño of the New Progressive Party has defeated incumbent Governor Aníbal Acevedo Vil?of the Popular Democratic Party. Figures are available.



4 November: In the United States of America presidential election, the Democratic Party candidate, Senator Barack H Obama of Illinois, has defeated the Republican Party candidate, Senator John S McCain of Arizona, with 52.4% of the popular vote and 365 Electoral College votes. State-level figures and a map are available.



4 November: In the United States of America legislative election, the Democratic Party has won increased majorities in the Senate and the House of Representatives. Full Senate and House of Representatives figures are available.


Elections in October 2008


30 October: In the Zambia presidential election, Rupiah Banda of the ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy has been elected with 40% of the vote, defeating three other candidates. Figures are available.



29 October: In the second round of the Maldives presidential election, the country's first free presidential election, President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, who has been in power for 30 years, has been defeated by Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives Democratic Party. Figures are available.



24 October: In the Czech Republic Senate election, the opposition Social Democrats and Communists have won 24 of the 27 seats up for election, weakening the coalition government of Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek. Figures and maps are available.



24 October: In the Lithuanian legislative election, held in two rounds on 12 and 24 October, the governing Social Democrats appear to have been defeated by a coalition of conservative parties. Figures are available.



18 October: In Australia, in the Australian Capital Territory legislative election, the Australian Labor Party led by Jon Stanhope has lost its majority in the Legislative Assembly and will be dependent on the Greens to form a new government. Figures are available.



15 October: In the Azerbaijan presidential election, President Ilham Aliyev has been re-elected with 88% of the vote. International observers have described the election as not free and fair. Figures are available.



14 October: In the Canadian legislative election, the governing Conservative Party, led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper, has improved its position in the House of Commons, but failed to win an overall majority. Constituency-level figures and maps are available.



8 October: In the Slovenia legislative election, the governing Slovenian Democratic Party of Prime Minister Janez Jansa hasd been defeated by a coalition led by the Social Democrat leader Borut Pahor. Figures are available.


Elections in September 2008


28 September: In the Austrian legislative election, the governing coalition of the Social Democrats and the People's Party has been re-elected, but has suffered heavy losses to the Freedom Party and the Alliance for the Future of Austria. Figures are available.



15 September: In the Rwanda legislative election, the ruling Rwanda Patriotic Front has won a large majority of votes and seats. Figures are available.



7 September: In the Hong Kong SAR legislative election, pro- and anti-Beijing parties have won approximately equal numbers of votes and seats. Constituency-level figures and a map are available.



6 September: In Australia, in the Western Australia state election, the Liberal Party led by Colin Barnett has defeated the Australian Labor Party government of Premier Alan Carpenter, ending Labor's six-year monopoly of Australia's state and territory governments. Figures and a map are available.



5 September: In the Angola legislative election, the first for 16 years, the ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola has won a large majority of votes and seats. Figures and a map are available.


Elections in August 2008


10 August: In Australia, in the Northern Territory election, the Australian Labor Party government of Chief Minister Paul Henderson has been returned with a reduced majority. Figures are available.


Elections in July 2008


27 July: In the Cambodia legislative election, the governing Cambodian People's Party of Prime Minister Hun Sen has been re-elected with an increased majority. Figures are available.



8 July: In the Grenada legislative election, the governing New National Party of Prime Minister Keith Mitchell has been defeated by the National Democratic Congress led by Tillman Thomas. Constituency-level figures are available.


Elections in June 2008


29 June: In the Mongolia legislative election, the governing Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party has retained its majority in the legislature, the Great People's Khural. No figures are yet available.



28 June: In the Iceland presidential election, the incumbent president, Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson, has been re-elected unopposed.



27 June: in the second round of the Zimbabwe presidential elections, opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai has withdrawn, leaving President Robert Mugabe to be elected unopposed, but lacking any electoral legitimacy.



1 June: In the Macedonia legislative election, the conservative- nationalist coalition led by Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski has been re-elected with an increased majority. Figures are available.


Elections in May 2008


21 May: In the Georgia legislative election, the United National Movement of President Mikheil Saakashvili has retained control of the legislature with a reduced but still large majority. Figures are available.



16 May: In the Dominican Republic presidential election, the incumbent President Leonel Antonio Fernández Reyna of the Dominican Liberation Party has been re-elected with 53% of the vote. Figures are available.



11 May: In the Serbia legislative election, the pro-Western and pro-reform parties, led by Boris Tadic's party For European Serbia, have won an increased majority over the anti-Western parties. Figures are available.


Elections in April 2008


26 April: In the Nauru legislative election, a new legislature has been elected on a non-party basis. Constituency-level figures are available.



24 April: In the Tonga legislative election, candidates favouring a fully democratic system have again won a majority of elected seats in the legislature, but will still be outnumbered by members representing the aristocracy or appointed by the king. Figures are available.



20 April: in the Paraguay presidential election, the leftist candidate Fernando Lugo has defeated the conservative Blanca Ovelar, ending 60 years of conservative rule. Figures are available. Results of the legislative election on the same day are not yet available.



13 and 14 April: in the Italian legislative election, the conservative People of Liberty party of Silvio Berlusconi will be able to form a government with the support of the regionalist Northern League, defeating the new centre-left Democratic Party led by Walter Veltroni. For the first time since World War II, there will be no communists in the Italian parliament. Figures are available.



10 April: in the Nepal constituent assembly election, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) has won the most seats. District and constituency-level figures are available.



9 April: in the Republic of Korea legislative election, the conservative Grand National Party of President Lee Myung-bak has won a narrow overall majority, and is likely to have the support of several minor parties. Unofficial figures are available.



6 April: in the Montenegro presidential election, the incumbent president, Filip Vujanovic of the Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro, has been re-elected with 51% of the vote. Figures are available.


Elections in March 2008


29 March: in the Zimbabwe legislative elections, President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF has lost its majority of elected members in the national legislature, to a combination of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and minor parties. Figures are available.



22 March: in the Bhutan legislative election, the country's first ever election, the Bhutan Peace and Prosperity Party has won a large majority of votes and seats. Constituency-level figures are available.



22 March: in the Taiwan presidential election, Ma Ying-jeou of the conservative Nationalist Party has defeated Hsieh Chang-ting of the Democratic Progressive Party. Figures are available.



14 March: in the Iranian legislative election, supporters of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are reported to have won a large majority. The elections are generally regarded as rigged, with no parties allowed and most anti-government candidates being barred. No figures have been published.



9 March: in the Spanish legislative election, the Socialist government of Prime Minister Jos?Luis Rodríguez Zapatero has been returned to office with its majority intact. Circumscription-level figures are available.



8 March: in the Malaysia legislative election, the governing National Front of Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi been returned to office with a sharply reduced majority, its worst result since 1969. National, state and constituency-level figures are available.



8 March: in the Malta legislative election, the Maltese Labour Party has won the election in terms of seats gained. But because the Maltese constitution stipulates that the party gaining a plurality of votes must win a majority of seats, and because the Nationalists polled about 1,500 more votes than Labour (though not a majority), extra seats will be allocated to the Nationalists to give them an artificial majority. Figures are available.



2 March: in the Russian presidential election, Dmitrii Medvedev, the candidate backed by outgoing President Vladimir Putin, has been elected with 70% of the vote. The elections were generally regarded as fraudulent. Since it is this archive's view that Russia is no longer a democracy, only a national summary is provided.


Elections in February 2008


24 February: in the second round of the Cyprus presidential election, the communist Dimitris Christofias has defeated the conservative Ioannis Kasoulidis, becoming the first communist ever to win a free national election in an EU country. Figures are available.



19 February: in the Armenian presidential election, Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan of the Republican Party has defeated former president Levon Ter-Petrossian. Figures are available.



18 February: in the Pakistan legislative election, the PML(Q) party of President Pervez Musharraf has been heavily defeated. The Pakistan People's Party is the largest party, and will be able to form a coalition government. National, provincial and constituency-level figures, plus constituency maps, are available.



7 February: in the Belize legislative election, the opposition United Democratic Party led by Dean Barrow has defeated the governing People's United Party led by Said Musa. Constituency-level figures are available.



3 February: in the second round of the Serbian presidential election, the incumbent president, Boris Tadic of the Democratic Party, has narrowly defeated Tomislav Nikolic of the Radical Party. Figures are available.


Elections in January 2008


15 January: in the Barbados legislative election, the opposition Democratic Labour Party of David Thompson has defeated the Barbados Labour Party government led by Owen Arthur. Constituency-level figures and a map are available.



12 January: in the Republic of China (Taiwan) legislative election, the opposition Nationalist Party (KMT) has had a landslide victory over the Democratic Progressive Party of President Chen Shui-bian. Constituency-level figures and maps are available.



5 January: in the Georgia presidential election, incumbent President Mikheil Saakashvili has a small overall lead with counting incomplete. Updated figures are available.


Elections in December 2007


27 December: in the Kenya presidential election, incumbent President Mwai Kibaki is claiming a narrow victory over the opposition candidate, Raila Odinga. The result is being disputed. What appear to be official figures are available.



23 December: in the Thailand legislative election, the People's Power Party of Samak Sundaravej has won the largest number of seats but has not won a majority. Figures and maps are available.



19 December: in the Republic of Korea presidential election, Lee Myung-bak of the conservative Grand National Party has been elected with 48% of vote, defeating Chung Dong-young of the United New Democratic Party with 26%. Province-level figures and maps are available.



2 December: in the Russian legislative election, United Russia, the party backed by President Vladimir Putin, has won a large majority of votes and seats. The elections were generally regarded as fraudulent. Since it is this archive's view that Russia is no longer a democracy, only a national summary is provided.


Elections in November 2007


24 November: in the Australian legislative election the Australian Labor Party led by Kevin Rudd has defeated the Coalition government of Prime Minister John Howard. Preliminary figures are available. My comprehensive pre-election guide remains available here.



20 November: in the Jordanian legislative election, most elected candidates as always are nominal independents and supporters of the government. District-level figures are available.



17 November: in the Croatian legislative election, the Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ) of Prime Minister Ivo Sanader has been re-elected, although the opposition Social Democrats have made the biggest gains. District-level figures are available.



17 November: in the Kosovo legislative election, the Albanian-nationalist Democratic Party of Kosovo led by Hashim Thaci has won the largest number of seats. Figures are available.



13 November: in the Danish legislative election, the liberal-conservative coalition government of Anders Fogh Rasmussen has been returned with a reduced majority. District-level figures are available.



11 November: in the second round of the Slovenian presidential election, Dr Danilo Türk, the candidate supported by the Slovenian Social Democratic Party, has been elected. Figures are available.



5 November: in the Trinidad and Tobago legislative election, the People's National Movement of Prime Minister Patrick Manning has been returned with an increased majority. Constituency-level figures are available.



4 November: in the second round of the Guatemala presidential election, Alvaro Colom Caballeros of the National Unity of Hope has defeated Otto Fernando Perez Molina of the Patriotic Party. Figures are available.


Elections in October 2007


28 October: in the Argentinian presidential election, the Peronist candidate Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, wife of the outgoing president, has been elected on the first round. Figures are available. Figures are also available for the Chamber of Deputies and Senate elections held on the same day.



21 October: in the Polish legislative election, the liberal Citizens' Platform party led by Donald Tusk has defeated Jaroslaw Kaczynski's conservative government. District-level figures are available.



21 October: in the Swiss legislative election, the right-wing Swiss People's Party has strengthened its position within the four-party governing coalition. Canton-level figures are available.



14 October: in the Togo legislative election, President Faure Gnassingb?s Rally for the Togolese People has won a majority. Prefecture-level figures are available.


Elections in September 2007


30 September: in the Ecuador Constituent Assembly election, supporters of President Rafael Correa Delgado have won a large majority. Figures are available.



30 September: in the Ukrainian legislative election, supporters of President Viktor Yushchenko and former Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko have won a majority. Regional-level figures are available.



16 September: in the Greek legislative election the New Democracy government of Costas Karamanlis has been re-elected with a reduced majority. District-level figures are available.



9 September: in the Guatemala legislative election, the social-democratic National Unity of Hope (UNE) has won the largest number of seats. Figures are available.



8 September: in the second round of the Sierra Leone presidential election, Ernest Bai Koroma of the All People's Congress has been elected with 54% of the vote. Figures are available.



7 September: in the Moroccan legislative election, the Independence Party of Abbas El Fassi has energed as the largest party. Circumscription-level figures are available.



3 September: in the Jamaica legislative election, the Jamaica Labour Party of Bruce Golding has defeated the incumbent People's National party government, which had been in power for 18 years. Constituency-level figures are available.


Elections in August 2007


11 August: in the Sierra Leone legislative election, the All People's Congress has won the largest number of seats. Constituency-level figures are available.


Elections in July 2007


30 June to 10 July: Counting in the Papua New Guinea legislative election is still not concluded, but I have given up waiting and have posted the constituency figures as they stand.



29 July: In the Japanese upper house legislative election, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has suffered heavy losses to the opposition Democratic Party. Prefecture-level figures are available.



22 July: In the Turkish legislative election, the ruling Justice and Development Party of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been re-elected with a greatly increased vote and comfortable majority. Constituency-level figures are available.


Elections in June 2007


30 June: In the East Timor legislative election, FRETILIN and CNRT have emerged as the largest parties, but neither has won a majority of seats. Figures are available.



24 June: The Togo legislative election scheduled for this date has been postponed indefinitely.



17 June: In the second round of the French legislative election, supporters of President Nicholas Sarkozy have won a comfortable majority in the National Assembly, but the Socialist opposition has polled better than was expected after the first round. Constituency-level figures and maps are now available.



10 June: In the Belgian legislative election, the liberal-socialist government of Guy Verhofstadt has resigned after losing ground to the opposition Christian Democrats. Constituency-level figures are available.



3 June: In the Senegal legislative election, the party of President Abdoulaye Wade has won almost all the seats after the opposition parties boycotted the election. Figures are available.


Elections in May 2007


24 May: In the Irish legislative election, the Fianna Fail-led government of Prime Minister Bertie Ahern has been returned, although the Opposition Fine Gael party made the biggest gains. Constituency-level figures are available.



17 May: In the Algerian legislative election, the ruling National Liberation Front has lost its overall majority in the National Assembly but remains the largest party. As in 2002, the election was marked by very low turnout. Figures are available.



14 May: In the Philippines legislative election, parties opposed to President Gloria Arroyo have won nine out of twelve Senate seats contested. Figures are available. As usual, no figures are available for the House of Representatives elections.



12 May: In the Armenian legislative election, the ruling Republican Party of Armenia and its allies have been returned with an increased majority, in elections generally held to be fair. Figures are available.



12 May: In the Iceland legislative election, the coalition government of Prime Minister Geir Haarde has been returned with a reduced majority. Constituency-level figures are available.



10 May: In the Seychelles legislative election, the ruling Seychelles People Progressive Front has been returned with an unchanged majority. Figures are available.



8 May: In the second round of the East Timor presidential election, Jose Ramos Horta, the current Prime Minister, has defeated Francisco Guterres of FRETILIN with 69% of the vote. Figures are available.



6 May: In the Burkina Faso legislative election, the ruling Congress for Democracy and Progress has retained control of the National Assembly. Figures are available.



6 May: In the second round of the French presidential election, Nicholas Sarkozy of the Union for a Popular Movement has won with 53% of the vote, defeating the Socialist Party's Ségolène Royal. Department-level figures and maps are now available.



4 May: In the Bahamas legislative election, the Free National Movement of Hubert Ingraham has defeated the incumbent Progressive Liberal Party government. Constituency-level figures are available.



3 May: In Britain, in the Scottish regional legislative election, the Scottish National Party of Alex Salmond has emerged as the largest party. Constituency-level figures are available.



3 May: In Britain, in the Welsh regional legislative election, the Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition government has been returned with a reduced majority. Constituency-level figures are available.


Elections in April 2007


29 April: In the Mali presidential election, President Amadou Toumani Tour?has been re-elected with 71% of the vote. Figures are available.



21 April: In the Nigerian presidential election, Umaru Musa Yar'Adua of the ruling People's Democratic Party has been elected with 69% of the vote. Figures are available.


Elections in March 2007


25 March: In the second round of the Mauritania presidential election, Sidi Ould Cheikh Abdallahi has been elected with 53% of the vote. Figures are available.



24 March: In Australia, in the New South Wales state election, the Australian Labor Party government of Premier Morris Iemma has been returned with a slightly reduced majority. Figures are available.



18 March: In the Finnish legislative election, the conservative National Rally party and the Greens have made gains at the expense of the Centre Party and the Social Democrats. The National Rally and the Centre Party are expected to form a new centre-right government. District-level figures and maps are available.



4 March: In the Estonian legislative election, the free market Reform Party of Prime Minister Andrus Ansip made major gains, and will form a new three-party coalition government. Figures are available.


Elections in February 2007


25 February: In the Senegal presidential election, President Abdoulaye Wade has been re-elected with 56% of the vote. Figures are available.



11 February: In the Turkmenistan presidential election, Acting President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov has been elected President with 89% of the vote. Only members of the ruling party were allowed to stand. OSCE observers described the election as "absolutely not free and fair." Figures are available.


Elections in January 2007


25 January: In the Gambia legislative election, President Yahya Jammeh's Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction has won a large majority. Figures are available.



21 January: In the Serbia legislative election, The four pro-Western and pro-reform parties, led by Boris Tadic's Democratic Party, have won a clear majority over the anti-Western Radicals and Socialists. Figures are available.


Elections in December 2006


11 December: In the St Lucia legislative election, The conservative United Workers Party led by Sir John Compton (who was first PM of St Lucia in 1964) has defeated the incumbent St Lucia Labour Party government. Figures are available.



3 December: In the Madagascar presidential election, President Marc Ravalomanana has been re-elected with 55% of the vote. Figures are available.



3 December: In the Venezuelan presidential election, the left-wing President Hugo Chavez Friaz has been re-elected with 62% of the vote, defeating the opposition candidate Manuel Antonio Rosales Guerrero. Figures are available.


Elections in November 2006


26 November: In the second round of the Ecuadorian presidential election, the left-wing candidate Rafael Correa has defeated the liberal candidate Alvaro Noboa, polling 56.7% of the vote. Updated figures are available. Updated figures for the 15 October legislative election are also available.



25 November: In Australia, in the Victorian state election, the Australian Labor Party government of Steve Bracks has been re-elected with a slightly reduced majority. Figures are available.



22 November: In the Netherlands legislative election, the conservative Christian Democrats of Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende have retained their position as the largest party, but will face difficult negotiations to form a majority coalition government. Figures are available.



7 November: In the United States legislative election, the opposition Democratic Party has gained control of both houses of the Congress from the Republican Party of President George W. Bush. Final figures for the Senate and House, plus updated maps of House districts, are now available.



5 November: In the Nicaragua presidential election, former President Daniel Ortega of the Sandinist National Liberation Front has returned to office after polling 38% of the vote in a five-candidate race. Figures are available.


Elections in October 2006


29 October: In the second round of the Brazilian presidential election, incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has been re-elected with 60% of the vote. Figures are available.



29 October: In the second round of the Bulgarian presidential election, the incumbent Socialist candidate Georgy Parvanov has been re-elected with 76% of the vote. Figures are available.



29 October: In the second round of the Democratic Republic of Congo presidential election, President Joseph Kabila has been re-elected with 58% the vote, defeating Vice-President Jean Pierre Bemba with 42%. Figures are available.



7 October: In the Latvian legislative election, the governing coalition of Prime Minister Aigars Kalvitis has returned to office. Figures are available.



1 October: In the Austrian legislative election, the incumbent Austrian People's Party government of Chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel his lost its majority, but the opposition Social Democrats led by Alfred Gusenbauer also lack a majority. A "grand coalition" between the two parties is a possible outcome. State-level figures are available.



1 October: In the Bosnia and Herzegovia presidential election, the three ethnic communities, Bosniaks, Croatians and Serbs, have elected members of the collective presidency. Social Democrats have won two of the three positions. Figures are available.



1 October: In the Brazilian legislative election, parties opposed to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva have won a majority of seats in the Senate and improved their position in the Chamber of Deputies. State-level figures are available.


Elections in September 2006


28 September: In the Zambian presidential election, President Levy P Mwanawasa of the Movement for Multi-party Democracy has been re-elected with 43% of the vote over Michael C Sata of the Patriotic Front and Hakainde Hichilema of the United Democratic Alliance. Figures are available.



24 September: In the Gambia presidential election, President Yahyah Jammeh has been re-elected with 67% of the vote. Figures are available.



23 September: In the Yemen presidential election, President Ali 'Abdullah Salih has been re-elected with 77% of the vote. Figures are available.



17 September: In Germany, in the Berlin and Mecklenberg state elections, the Social Democrats have retained government in both states. Figures are available.



17 September: In the Swedish legislative election, the centre-right coalition led by Fredrik Reinfeldt of the Moderate Party has won a majority over the Social Democrats. District-level figures and maps are available.



10 September: In the Montenegro legislative election, the country's first since becoming independent, the Coalition for European Montenegro of Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic has won a majority. Figures are available.



9 September: In Australia, in the Queensland state election, the Australian Labor Party government of Peter Beattie has been re-elected with a slightly reduced majority. Preliminary constituency-level figures are available.

Elections in August 2006


28 August: In the Guyana legislative election, the ruling People's Progressive Party has been re-elected with an increased majority and 54% of the vote. Figures are available.



3 August: In the Tuvalu legislative election, a new legislature has been elected on a non-party basis. Figures are available.


Elections in July 2006


30 July: In the Democratic Republic of Congo presidential election, the first free election in the country since 1960, President Joseph Kabila has polled 44.8% of the vote, while his nearest rival, Vice-President Jean Pierre Bemba, has polled 20%. A run off will be held in October. Figures are available. Figures are also available for the legislative election held on the same day.



30 July: In the Sao Tome and Principe presidential election, President Fradique De Menzes of the Independent Democratic Action party has been re-elected with 60% of the vote. Figures are available.



28 July: In the Seychelles presidential election, President James Michel of the Progressive Front of the Seychelles People has been re-elected with 54% of the vote. Figures are available.



5 July: In the Macedonia legislative election, the conservative nationalist VMRO-DPMNE coalition of Nikola Gruevski has defeated the incumbent Social Democratic government. District-level figures and maps are available.


Elections in June 2006


2 July: In the Mexican presidential election, the conservative Felipe de Jesus Calderon Hinojosa of the National Action Party has narrowly defeated the leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the Party of the Democratic Revolution. Final figures are available. Figures for the Senate and Chamber of Deputies elections held on the same day are also available.



17 June: In the Slovakia legislative election, the centre-left Direction party of Robert Fico has emerged as the largest party. Figures are available.



5 June: In the second round of the Peruvian presidential election, former President Alan García Pérez has defeated Ollanta Humala Tasso with 54% of the vote. Figures are available. District-level figures for the legislative elections held on the same day are also available.



4 June: In the San Marino legislative election, the Christian Democrats have won the largest number of seats. Figures are available.



2 and 3 June: In the Czech Republic legislative election, the conservative Civic Democratic Union and its allies have won exactly half the seats, while the ruling Social Democrats and the Communists have retained the other half, creating a deadlock. Figures are available.


Elections in May 2006


28 May: In the Colombia presidential election, Conservative President Alvaro Uribe has been elected to a second term with 62% of the vote. Figures are available.



21 May: In the Cyprus legislative election, supporters of President Tassos Papadopoulos have won a majority in the legislature. Figures are available.



16 May: In the second round of the Comoros presidential election, Ahmed Abdallah Sambi has been elected with 58% of the vote. Figures are available.



16 May: In the Dominican Republic legislative election, the Party of Dominican Liberation of President Leonel Fernández Reyna has won majorities in both chambers. Figures are available.



6 May: In the Fiji Islands legislative election, the governing Fiji United Party, which represents ethnic Fijians, has been returned with a narrow majority over the Fiji Labor Party, which is dominated by ethnic Indians. Figures are available.



6 May: In the Singapore legislative election, the governing People's Action Party has been re-elected with its majority intact but some decline in its level of support. Figures are available.



3 May: In the Chad presidential election, President Idriss Deby has been re-elected with 64% of the vote. Figures are available.


Elections in April 2006


23 April: In the second round of the Hungarian legislative election, the governing Hungarian Socialist Party and its allies have defeated the opposition Alliance of Free Democrats. Figures are available.



9 April: In the Italian legislative election, the centre-left Olive Tree coalition has won a very narrow victory over the incumbent rightist House of Freedom coaliion of Silvio Berlusconi. Figures and maps are available.



5 April: In the Solomon Islands legislative election, the Prime Minister, Sir Allen Kemakeza, has resigned following the loss of many seats. Figures are available.



2 April: Following the Thailand legislative election, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has resigned, despite the fact that his Thais Love Thais party won 61% of valid votes and an overwhelming majority of seats, following a boycott by the opposition parties. Preliminary figures are available.


Elections in March 2006


31 March: In the Samoa legislative election, the governing Human Rights Protection Party has won an increased majority. Constituency-level figures are available.



28 March: In the Israel legislative election, Acting Prime Minister's Ehud Olmert's Kadima Party has won enough seats to be able to form a centre-left coalition government with Labour and other parties. Figures are available.



26 March: In the Ukraine legislative election, supporters of opposition leaders Viktor Yanukovitch and Julia Timoshenko have made major gains, mainly at the expense of the Communists but also at the expense of supporters of President Viktor Yushchenko. Figures are available.



26 March: In the São Tom?and Príncipe legislative election, the Democratic Movement of the Forces for Change has won a majority of seats. Figures are available.



19 March: In the Belarus presidential election, President Aleksandr Lukashenko has been re-elected with an officially reported 87% of the vote. Figures are available.



19 March: In the second round of the Benin presidential election, independent candidate Boni Yayi has been elected with 74% of the vote. Figures are available.



12 March: In the South Australian and Tasmanian state elections, Australian Labor Party governments have been easily re-elected. Preliminary figures are available.



12 March: In the Colombia legislative election, supporters of President Álvaro Uribe have retained control of both houses of the Congress. Figures are available.



12 March: In the El Salvador legislative election, the conservative ARENA party and its allies have retained control of the Legislative Assembly. Figures are available.


Elections in February 2006


23 February: In the Uganda presidential election, President Yoweri Museveni of the National Resistance Movement has been re-elected with 59% of the vote. Figures are available.



12 February: In the Cape Verde presidential election, President Pedro Verona Rodrigues Pires of the African Party for the Independence of Cape Verde has been re-elected with 51% of the vote. Figures are available.



6 February: In the Haiti presidential election, Rene Preval of the radical Lespwa (Hope) coalition has been declared the winner with 51% of the vote. Final figures are available. Figures are also available for the Senate election held on the same day.



5 February: In the Costa Rica presidential election, Oscar Arias Sanchez of the National Liberation party holds a narrow lead over Otton Solis Fallas of the Citizen Action party. Figures are available. Figures from the legislative elections held on the same day are also available.


Elections in January 2006


29 January: In the second round of the Finnish presidential election, incumbent Social Democratic President Tarja Halonen has defeated Sauli Niinisto of the National Rally with 51% of the vote. Figures are available.



25 January: In the Palestinian Territories legislative election, the Islamist party Change and Reform (Hamas) has defeated the incumbent Fatah Movement government. Figures are available.



23 January: In the Canadian legislative election, the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper will form a minority government following the defeat of Paul Martin's Liberal government. Figures are available.



22 January: In the Cape Verde legislative election, the governing African Party for the Independence of Cape Verde has been re-elected with an increased majority. Figures are available.



22 January: In the Portuguese presidential election, Anibal Cavaco Silva of the conservative Social Democratic Party has defeated former President Mario Soares. Figures are available.



18 January: In the second round of the Chilean presidential election, Michelle Bachelet of the centre-left Democratic Coalition has defeated Sebastián Piñera of the conservative National Renewal. Figures are available.