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(quick note. I've decided a threshold of 5% is reasonable, and so have edited the examples to fit within this)
The first thing we must do is design a system that will work for Canada. In some places with PR, they have large PR districts. In Japan, they use multiple-province sized districts. In Iraq, each district is the size of a single province. Other countries use nation-wide districts. Israel, Germany, and Russia are examples of the latter. In order for PR to work in Canada, we need to come up with a system of our own design.
I propose that Provinces, in provincial elections, use a single province-wide district. This will simplify the process to its maximum amount. Provinces rarely have such huge changes in vote distribution as is found on the federal level. The only real instance of a true and drastic change would be the West Island of Montreal. The radical regionalization of the vote like we find in the Reform Party or Bloc does not happen at the provincial level.
Federally, however, I propose that each district be made up of one province, or for smaller provinces, multiple provinces. I propose that BC, Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec be PR districts, while a combination of Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and the Territories be a single district; and that Atlantic Canada also be a single district. If done in this way, each district would have the following number of ridings.
Ontario – 106
Quebec – 75
BC – 36
Atlantic – 32
Prairies/North - 31
Alberta – 28
Next, we need to determine the number of PR seats to add. The more we add, the better the chance that we will overturn a majority government; while the fewer we add, the better the chance that regional mis-representation cannot be smoothed over properly. I propose that we add either 20% or 25% of the number of ridings back as PR seats. So that a district with 100 ridings would have either 20 or 25 PR seats tied to it. 20 seats is enough to give you one seat per every 5% of the vote. 25 does it with every 4%. Using 25%, our smallest province, PEI (which has 27 MLAs) would get 7 PR seats, while Federal Alberta (which has 28 MPs) would also get 7. Using 20%, they would only get 5. It would take 14% of the vote to elect one PR member at a factor of 25%, but 20% of the vote to do it at a factor of 20%. While I favor 20% in many ways, I think 25% will sell better, and work better with these smaller districts. I therefore propose that for every 4 MPs, MLAs, MHAs, MNAs, or MPPs each district has, that it gains 1 PR member, rounded up where need be.
A key to making this work in terms of getting fair representation for the opposition is to limit the size of lists. Parties will only be able to submit lists that contain half as many names as there are seats available, rounded up where needed. Therefore, where you have a list of 7 PR members, such as in Federal Alberta, each party will only be able to submit names for half (rounded up) of these 7, or, 4. This limits the amount of members the government can win. Let’s begin looking at some examples.
Newfoundland, provincially, has 48 ridings. I propose that 12 PR members be added. If we were to distribute those PR seats, with no list limit, we would see the following results:
PC – 9
Lib – 2
NDP – 1
This is because the PC Party took 70% of the vote in the last provincial election. Using the proposed list-limit, however, you get the following.
PC – 6 (limited)
Lib – 5
NDP – 1
Combine this with the results from the last election and you get:
PC – 50
Lib – 8
NDP - 2
This brings the total number of opposition seats up to 10 out of 60 (17%) which is more than the 4 out of 48 (8%) they got under the current system. At the same time this allows not only the opposition to get people elected from their lists, but the Government as well. With 6 members, you can elect a Premier, a Deputy Premier, a Finance Minister, Two Women, and a Minority.
Below the fold are examples going back to 1972. Why 1972? Well that was the year we had a federal election that was nearly a tie; a great place to put this electoral system to the test.
Note that these examples show the new totals, added to the ridings elected from our current system.
* = All seats are from the new PR list. The party did not win any ridings.
Newfoundland
2007
PC – 50
Lib – 8
NDP – 2
2003
PC – 40
Lib – 17
NDP – 3
1999
Lib – 38
PC – 19
NDP – 3
1996
Lib – 43
PC – 15
NDP – 1
IND - 1
1993
Lib – 41
PC – 22
NDP – 2
1989
Lib – 37
PC – 28
1985
PC – 42
Lib – 20
NDP – 3
1982
PC – 40
Lib – 15
1979
PC – 40
Lib – 24
NDP – 1*
1975
PC – 37
Lib – 21
RL - 5 (Reform Liberals, or Smallwood Liberals)
Ind - 1
1972
PC – 39
Lib - 14
====================
Prince Edward Island
2007
Lib - 27
PC - 7
2003
PC - 27
Lib - 7
2000
PC - 30
Lib - 4
1996
PC - 22
Lib - 11
NDP - 1
1993
Lib - 36
PC - 4
1989
Lib - 35
PC - 5
1986
Lib - 25
PC - 15
1982
PC - 25
Lib - 15
1979
PC - 25
Lib - 15
1978
Lib - 21
PC - 19
1974
Lib - 31
PC - 9
====================
New Brunswick
2006
Lib - 36
PC - 33
2003
PC - 35
Lib - 32
NDP - 2
1999
PC - 51
Lib - 16
NDP - 2
1995
Lib - 55
PC - 11
NDP - 2
CoR - 1*
1991
Lib - 54
CoR - 11
PC - 6
NDP - 2
1987
Lib - 66
PC - 5*
NDP - 2*
1982
PC - 47
Lib - 24
NDP - 2
1978
PC - 37
Lib - 35
NDP - 1
1974
PC - 40
Lib - 33
--------------------
note
In 1987, the Liberals won every riding. Under the new PR system, they opposition has 9.6% of the seats.
====================
Nova Scotia
2009
NDP - 37
Lib - 15
PC - 13
2006
PC - 28
NDP - 25
Lib - 12
2003
PC - 30
NDP - 19
Lib - 16
1999
PC - 35
NDP - 15
Lib - 15
1998
Lib - 24
NDP - 23
PC - 18
1993
Lib - 46
PC - 12
NDP - 7
1988
PC - 34
Lib - 26
NDP - 4
IND - 1
1984
PC - 49
Lib - 10
NDP - 5
Lab - 1
1981
PC - 44
Lib - 17
NDP - 3
IND - 1
1978
PC - 37
Lib - 22
NDP - 6
1974
Lib - 37
PC - 17
NDP - 4
====================
Manitoba
2008
NDP - 43
PC - 24
Lib - 4
2003
NDP - 42
PC - 25
Lib - 4
1999
NDP - 38
PC - 30
Lib - 3
1995
Lib - 37
NDP - 28
Lib - 6
1990
PC - 36
NDP - 24
Lib - 11
1988
PC - 31
Lib - 25
NDP - 15
1986
NDP - 36
PC - 32
Lib - 3
1981
NDP - 41
PC - 29
Lib - 1*
1977
PC - 40
NDP - 29
Lib - 2
1973
NDP - 37
PC - 26
Lib - 8
--------------------
note
1990. A 3 seat margin becomes a 1 seat margin.
1986, again, 3 seat margin becomes 1.
====================
Saskatchewan
2007
SKP - 44
NDP - 28
Lib - 1*
2003
NDP - 37
SKP - 34
Lib - 2*
1999
NDP - 35
SKP - 31
Lib - 7
1995
NDP - 49
Lib - 16
PC - 8
1991
NDP - 64
PC - 14
Lib - 5
1986
PC - 45
NDP - 33
Lib - 2
1982
PC - 63
NDP - 17
1978
NDP - 52
PC - 23
Lib - 2*
1975
NDP - 46
Lib - 20
PC - 11
====================
Alberta
2008
PC - 84
Lib - 15
NDP - 4
AA - 1*
Grn - 1*
2004
PC - 73
Lib - 22
NDP - 6
AA - 3
2001
PC - 85
Lib - 15
NDP - 4
1997
PC - 74
Lib - 24
NDP - 4
SC - 1*
1993
PC - 61
Lib - 41
NDP - 2*
1989
PC - 69
NDP - 21
Lib - 14
1986
PC - 72
NDP - 23
Lib - 6
RPP - 3
1982
PC - 85
NDP - 8
WCC - 4* (Separatists)
IND - 2
1979
PC - 84
SC - 9
NDP - 5
Lib - 1*
1975
PC - 79
SC - 9
NDP - 4
Lib - 1*
IND - 1
====================
British Columbia
2009
BCL - 59
NDP - 45
Grn - 1*
IND - 1
2005
BCL - 56
NDP - 42
Grn - 1*
2001
BCL - 87
NDP - 8
Grn - 4*
1996
NDP - 47
BCL - 41
Ref - 4
PDA - 2
1991
NDP - 59
BCL - 23
SC - 12
1986
SC - 56
NDP - 29
BCL - 1*
1983
SC - 42
NDP - 29
1979
SC - 38
NDP - 33
1975
SC - 42
NDP - 24
Lib - 2
PC - 1
1972
NDP - 44
SC - 14
Lib - 7
PC - 4
--------------------
note
In 1996 the NDP won a government despite the Liberals having more votes. Our current system gave the (NDP) Government a 3 seat lead over the Opposition. This proposal results in a tie.
====================
Quebec
2008
PLQ - 80
PQ - 63
ADQ - 12
QS - 1
2007
PLQ - 57
ADQ - 52
PQ - 47
2003
PLQ - 91
PQ - 55
ADQ - 10
1998
PQ - 90
PLQ - 62
ADQ - 4
1994
PQ - 92
PLQ - 61
ADQ - 3
1989
PLQ - 108
PQ - 44
Equ - 4
1985
PLQ - 115
PQ - 38
1981
PQ - 96
PLQ - 57
1976
PQ - 84
PLQ - 36
UN - 16
RC - 1
PNP - 1
1973
PLQ - 116
PQ - 17
RC - 5
====================
Ontario
2007
Lib - 83
PC - 35
NDP - 14
Grn - 2*
2003
Lib - 81
PC - 33
NDP - 11
1999
PC - 70
Lib - 46
NDP - 12
1995
PC - 97
Lib - 41
NDP - 24
IND - 1
1990
NDP - 87
Lib - 48
PC - 28
1987
Lib - 111
NDP - 28
PC - 24
1985
PC - 64
Lib - 60
NDP - 32
1981
PC - 84
Lib - 45
NDP - 27
1977
PC - 70
Lib - 44
NDP - 42
1975
PC - 62
Lib - 47
NDP - 47
--------------------
note
In 1975, the NDP took 2 more ridings than the Liberals, however under the proposed PR system, they would have tied, meaning the Liberals remain as Official Opposition.
Up next, federal results.
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