Thursday, February 18, 2010

PR, part 3

<- Click here to see the full post
Provincial breakdowns below the fold.

Here are the federal breakdowns for elections using my proposed system. Which, as a reminder, is as follows:
>25% of seats are added back as PR list seats. Meaning if there are 100 ridings, you add 25 PR seats.
>Party Lists are limited to half of the PR list seats rounded up, to guarantee the opposition fair representation.
>Seats are distributed on a parallel system, not a top-up system, meaning if you get 50% of the vote, you get 50% of the PR seats, not 50% of the total seats.
>A minimum of 26 ridings needed to form a PR district. This means that Manitoba and Saskatchewan re united into a single electoral district, as is the Atlantic. In the past, it also means the addition of Alberta to the Prairies, and far back enough, even BC to the West as a whole.

I've decided not to include the territories at all. Their voting base is just too small. Even included in with MB/SK, they would add 3 ridings (and 1 PR seat) for very small vote numbers. In reality, this would only add more seats to small parties in MB/SK without truly representing the Territories. Hence, I have decided to dis-include them.

Remember, there is a 5% threshold in each electoral district.

Above the fold, national results. Below, district breakdowns. Note this shows the total seats.

2008
CPC - 176
Lib - 96
BQ - 54
NDP - 51
Grn - 3*
IND - 2

2006
CPC - 157
Lib - 127
BQ - 55
NDP - 42
IND - 1

2004
Lib - 177
CPC - 131
BQ - 64
NDP - 36
IND - 1

2000
Lib - 201
CA - 87
BQ - 46
PC - 21
NDP - 19
IND - 1

1997 (see note)
Lib - 183
Ref - 75
BQ - 51
PC - 35
NDP - 29
IND - 1

1993
Lib - 206
Ref - 68
BQ - 64
PC - 15
NDP - 12
IND - 1

1988
PC - 202
Lib - 106
NDP - 57
Ref - 1

1984
PC - 255
Lib - 68
NDP - 49
IND - 1

1980
Lib - 175
PC - 126
NDP - 46
SC - 2*

1979
PC - 161
Lib - 151
NDP - 37
SC - 10

1974
Lib - 170
PC - 119
NDP - 23
SC - 15
IND - 1

1972
Lib - 136
PC - 129
NDP - 41
SC - 20
IND - 2

Note -
1997 would be the only election in any of these examples where a Majority is turned into a Minority. With 301 ridings, the Liberals won 155 of them, just e seats into Majority territory. 1997 is also the election that sparked the merger on the right, as if the right had been united, they would have won more seats than the Liberals. That becomes clear here as the Liberal Majority is turned into a Minority. The Liberals would need 4 seats to gain a Majority here, and likely would find them with support from the NDP, meaning a Reform-PC-BQ alliance would not be enough to overtake the government.


2008
Atlantic
Lib - 20
CPC - 13
NDP - 6
IND - 1

Quebec
BQ - 54
Lib - 18
CPC - 18
NDP - 3
IND - 1

Ontario
CPC - 62
Lib - 47
NDP - 22
Grn - 2*

SK/MB
CPC - 26
NDP - 6
Lib - 3

Alberta
CPC - 31
NDP - 3
Lib - 1*

British Columbia
CPC - 26
NDP - 11
Lib - 7
Grn - 1*

=============
2006
Atlantic
Lib - 23
CPC - 12
NDP - 5

Quebec
BQ - 55
CPC - 19
Lib - 18
NDP - 1*
IND - 1

Ontario
Lib - 66
CPC - 50
NDP - 17

SK/MB
CPC - 23
Lib - 7
NDP - 5

Alberta
CPC - 32
Lib - 2
NDP - 1*

British Columbia
CPC - 21
NDP - 13
Lib - 11

=============
2004

Atlantic
Lib - 26
CPC - 9
NDP - 5

Quebec
BQ - 64
Lib - 29
CPC - 1*

Ontario
Lib - 101
CPC - 42
NDP - 17

SK/MB
CPC - 23
Lib - 6
NDP - 6

Alberta
CPC - 30
Lib - 4
NDP - 1*

British Columbia
CPC - 26
Lib - 11
NDP - 7
IND - 1

=============
2000

Atlantic
Lib - 22
PC - 12
NDP - 5
CA - 1*

Quebec
BQ - 46
Lib - 45
PC - 2
CA - 1*

Ontario
Lib - 113
CA - 9
PC - 4*
NDP - 3
IND - 1

SK/MB
CA - 17
Lib - 9
NDP - 8
PC - 1

Alberta
CA - 27
Lib - 4
PC - 2

British Columbia
CA - 32
Lib - 8
NDP - 3

=============
1997

Atlantic
PC - 16
Lib - 14
NDP - 10

Quebec
BQ - 51
Lib - 33
PC - 10

Ontario
Lib - 114
PC - 6
Ref - 5
NDP - 3
IND - 1

SK/MB
Ref - 13
NDP - 11
Lib - 9
PC - 2

Alberta
Ref - 28
Lib - 4
PC - 1*

British Columbia
Ref - 29
Lib - 9
NDP - 5

=============
1993

Atlantic
Lib - 35
PC - 4
Ref - 1*

Quebec
BQ - 64
Lib - 26
PC - 3
IND - 1

Ontario
Lib - 111
Ref 7
PC - 5*
NDP - 1*

MB/SK
Lib - 19
NDP - 8
Ref - 7
PC - 1*

Alberta
Ref - 26
Lib - 6
PC - 1*

British Columbia
Ref - 27
Lib - 9
NDP - 3
PC - 1*

=============
1988

Atlantic
Lib - 24
PC - 15
NDP - 1*

Quebec
PC - 73
Lib - 18
NDP - 3*

Ontario
PC - 56
Lib - 53
NDP - 15

SK/MB
PC - 14
NDP - 14
Lib - 7

Alberta
PC - 29
NDP - 2
Lib - 1*
Ref - 1*

British Columbia
NDP - 22
PC - 15
Lib - 3

=============
1984

Atlantic
PC - 29
Lib - 10
NDP - 1*

Quebec
PC - 68
Lib - 25
NDP - 1*

Ontario
PC - 91
Lib - 28
NDP - 23
IND - 1

Prairies
PC - 45
NDP - 13
Lib - 3

British Columbia
PC - 22
NDP - 11
Lib - 2

=============
1980

Atlantic
Lib - 23
PC - 16
NDP - 1*

Quebec
Lib - 84
PC - 5
NDP - 3*
SC - 2*

Ontario
Lib - 62
PC - 47
NDP - 10

Prairies
PC - 39
NDP - 17
Lib - 5

British Colubmia
PC - 19
NDP - 15
Lib - 1*

=============
1979

Atlantic
Lib - 25
PC - 22
NDP - 3

Quebec
Lib - 77
SC - 10
PC - 6
NDP - 1*

Ontario
PC - 67
Lib - 41
NDP - 11

Prairies
PC - 44
NDP - 12
Lib - 5

British Columbia
PC - 22
NDP - 10
Lib - 3

=============
1974

Atlantic
PC - 21
Lib - 17
NDP - 1
IND - 1

Quebec
Lib - 70
SC - 15
PC - 7
NDP - 1*

Ontario
Lib - 65
PC - 33
NDP - 12

West
PC - 58
Lib - 18
NDP - 9

=============
1972

Atlantic
PC - 26
Lib 14

Quebec
Lib - 66
SC - 20
PC - 5
NDP - 1*
IND - 1

Ontario
PC - 49
Lib - 44
NDP - 16
IND - 1

West
PC - 49
NDP - 24
Lib - 12

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