Thursday, February 18, 2010

PR, part 3

<- Click here to see the full post
Provincial breakdowns below the fold.

Here are the federal breakdowns for elections using my proposed system. Which, as a reminder, is as follows:
>25% of seats are added back as PR list seats. Meaning if there are 100 ridings, you add 25 PR seats.
>Party Lists are limited to half of the PR list seats rounded up, to guarantee the opposition fair representation.
>Seats are distributed on a parallel system, not a top-up system, meaning if you get 50% of the vote, you get 50% of the PR seats, not 50% of the total seats.
>A minimum of 26 ridings needed to form a PR district. This means that Manitoba and Saskatchewan re united into a single electoral district, as is the Atlantic. In the past, it also means the addition of Alberta to the Prairies, and far back enough, even BC to the West as a whole.

I've decided not to include the territories at all. Their voting base is just too small. Even included in with MB/SK, they would add 3 ridings (and 1 PR seat) for very small vote numbers. In reality, this would only add more seats to small parties in MB/SK without truly representing the Territories. Hence, I have decided to dis-include them.

Remember, there is a 5% threshold in each electoral district.

Above the fold, national results. Below, district breakdowns. Note this shows the total seats.

2008
CPC - 176
Lib - 96
BQ - 54
NDP - 51
Grn - 3*
IND - 2

2006
CPC - 157
Lib - 127
BQ - 55
NDP - 42
IND - 1

2004
Lib - 177
CPC - 131
BQ - 64
NDP - 36
IND - 1

2000
Lib - 201
CA - 87
BQ - 46
PC - 21
NDP - 19
IND - 1

1997 (see note)
Lib - 183
Ref - 75
BQ - 51
PC - 35
NDP - 29
IND - 1

1993
Lib - 206
Ref - 68
BQ - 64
PC - 15
NDP - 12
IND - 1

1988
PC - 202
Lib - 106
NDP - 57
Ref - 1

1984
PC - 255
Lib - 68
NDP - 49
IND - 1

1980
Lib - 175
PC - 126
NDP - 46
SC - 2*

1979
PC - 161
Lib - 151
NDP - 37
SC - 10

1974
Lib - 170
PC - 119
NDP - 23
SC - 15
IND - 1

1972
Lib - 136
PC - 129
NDP - 41
SC - 20
IND - 2

Note -
1997 would be the only election in any of these examples where a Majority is turned into a Minority. With 301 ridings, the Liberals won 155 of them, just e seats into Majority territory. 1997 is also the election that sparked the merger on the right, as if the right had been united, they would have won more seats than the Liberals. That becomes clear here as the Liberal Majority is turned into a Minority. The Liberals would need 4 seats to gain a Majority here, and likely would find them with support from the NDP, meaning a Reform-PC-BQ alliance would not be enough to overtake the government.


2008
Atlantic
Lib - 20
CPC - 13
NDP - 6
IND - 1

Quebec
BQ - 54
Lib - 18
CPC - 18
NDP - 3
IND - 1

Ontario
CPC - 62
Lib - 47
NDP - 22
Grn - 2*

SK/MB
CPC - 26
NDP - 6
Lib - 3

Alberta
CPC - 31
NDP - 3
Lib - 1*

British Columbia
CPC - 26
NDP - 11
Lib - 7
Grn - 1*

=============
2006
Atlantic
Lib - 23
CPC - 12
NDP - 5

Quebec
BQ - 55
CPC - 19
Lib - 18
NDP - 1*
IND - 1

Ontario
Lib - 66
CPC - 50
NDP - 17

SK/MB
CPC - 23
Lib - 7
NDP - 5

Alberta
CPC - 32
Lib - 2
NDP - 1*

British Columbia
CPC - 21
NDP - 13
Lib - 11

=============
2004

Atlantic
Lib - 26
CPC - 9
NDP - 5

Quebec
BQ - 64
Lib - 29
CPC - 1*

Ontario
Lib - 101
CPC - 42
NDP - 17

SK/MB
CPC - 23
Lib - 6
NDP - 6

Alberta
CPC - 30
Lib - 4
NDP - 1*

British Columbia
CPC - 26
Lib - 11
NDP - 7
IND - 1

=============
2000

Atlantic
Lib - 22
PC - 12
NDP - 5
CA - 1*

Quebec
BQ - 46
Lib - 45
PC - 2
CA - 1*

Ontario
Lib - 113
CA - 9
PC - 4*
NDP - 3
IND - 1

SK/MB
CA - 17
Lib - 9
NDP - 8
PC - 1

Alberta
CA - 27
Lib - 4
PC - 2

British Columbia
CA - 32
Lib - 8
NDP - 3

=============
1997

Atlantic
PC - 16
Lib - 14
NDP - 10

Quebec
BQ - 51
Lib - 33
PC - 10

Ontario
Lib - 114
PC - 6
Ref - 5
NDP - 3
IND - 1

SK/MB
Ref - 13
NDP - 11
Lib - 9
PC - 2

Alberta
Ref - 28
Lib - 4
PC - 1*

British Columbia
Ref - 29
Lib - 9
NDP - 5

=============
1993

Atlantic
Lib - 35
PC - 4
Ref - 1*

Quebec
BQ - 64
Lib - 26
PC - 3
IND - 1

Ontario
Lib - 111
Ref 7
PC - 5*
NDP - 1*

MB/SK
Lib - 19
NDP - 8
Ref - 7
PC - 1*

Alberta
Ref - 26
Lib - 6
PC - 1*

British Columbia
Ref - 27
Lib - 9
NDP - 3
PC - 1*

=============
1988

Atlantic
Lib - 24
PC - 15
NDP - 1*

Quebec
PC - 73
Lib - 18
NDP - 3*

Ontario
PC - 56
Lib - 53
NDP - 15

SK/MB
PC - 14
NDP - 14
Lib - 7

Alberta
PC - 29
NDP - 2
Lib - 1*
Ref - 1*

British Columbia
NDP - 22
PC - 15
Lib - 3

=============
1984

Atlantic
PC - 29
Lib - 10
NDP - 1*

Quebec
PC - 68
Lib - 25
NDP - 1*

Ontario
PC - 91
Lib - 28
NDP - 23
IND - 1

Prairies
PC - 45
NDP - 13
Lib - 3

British Columbia
PC - 22
NDP - 11
Lib - 2

=============
1980

Atlantic
Lib - 23
PC - 16
NDP - 1*

Quebec
Lib - 84
PC - 5
NDP - 3*
SC - 2*

Ontario
Lib - 62
PC - 47
NDP - 10

Prairies
PC - 39
NDP - 17
Lib - 5

British Colubmia
PC - 19
NDP - 15
Lib - 1*

=============
1979

Atlantic
Lib - 25
PC - 22
NDP - 3

Quebec
Lib - 77
SC - 10
PC - 6
NDP - 1*

Ontario
PC - 67
Lib - 41
NDP - 11

Prairies
PC - 44
NDP - 12
Lib - 5

British Columbia
PC - 22
NDP - 10
Lib - 3

=============
1974

Atlantic
PC - 21
Lib - 17
NDP - 1
IND - 1

Quebec
Lib - 70
SC - 15
PC - 7
NDP - 1*

Ontario
Lib - 65
PC - 33
NDP - 12

West
PC - 58
Lib - 18
NDP - 9

=============
1972

Atlantic
PC - 26
Lib 14

Quebec
Lib - 66
SC - 20
PC - 5
NDP - 1*
IND - 1

Ontario
PC - 49
Lib - 44
NDP - 16
IND - 1

West
PC - 49
NDP - 24
Lib - 12

PR Part 2

<- Click here to see the full post

(quick note. I've decided a threshold of 5% is reasonable, and so have edited the examples to fit within this)

The first thing we must do is design a system that will work for Canada. In some places with PR, they have large PR districts. In Japan, they use multiple-province sized districts. In Iraq, each district is the size of a single province. Other countries use nation-wide districts. Israel, Germany, and Russia are examples of the latter. In order for PR to work in Canada, we need to come up with a system of our own design.

I propose that Provinces, in provincial elections, use a single province-wide district. This will simplify the process to its maximum amount. Provinces rarely have such huge changes in vote distribution as is found on the federal level. The only real instance of a true and drastic change would be the West Island of Montreal. The radical regionalization of the vote like we find in the Reform Party or Bloc does not happen at the provincial level.

Federally, however, I propose that each district be made up of one province, or for smaller provinces, multiple provinces. I propose that BC, Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec be PR districts, while a combination of Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and the Territories be a single district; and that Atlantic Canada also be a single district. If done in this way, each district would have the following number of ridings.
Ontario – 106
Quebec – 75
BC – 36
Atlantic – 32
Prairies/North - 31
Alberta – 28

Next, we need to determine the number of PR seats to add. The more we add, the better the chance that we will overturn a majority government; while the fewer we add, the better the chance that regional mis-representation cannot be smoothed over properly. I propose that we add either 20% or 25% of the number of ridings back as PR seats. So that a district with 100 ridings would have either 20 or 25 PR seats tied to it. 20 seats is enough to give you one seat per every 5% of the vote. 25 does it with every 4%. Using 25%, our smallest province, PEI (which has 27 MLAs) would get 7 PR seats, while Federal Alberta (which has 28 MPs) would also get 7. Using 20%, they would only get 5. It would take 14% of the vote to elect one PR member at a factor of 25%, but 20% of the vote to do it at a factor of 20%. While I favor 20% in many ways, I think 25% will sell better, and work better with these smaller districts. I therefore propose that for every 4 MPs, MLAs, MHAs, MNAs, or MPPs each district has, that it gains 1 PR member, rounded up where need be.

A key to making this work in terms of getting fair representation for the opposition is to limit the size of lists. Parties will only be able to submit lists that contain half as many names as there are seats available, rounded up where needed. Therefore, where you have a list of 7 PR members, such as in Federal Alberta, each party will only be able to submit names for half (rounded up) of these 7, or, 4. This limits the amount of members the government can win. Let’s begin looking at some examples.

Newfoundland, provincially, has 48 ridings. I propose that 12 PR members be added. If we were to distribute those PR seats, with no list limit, we would see the following results:
PC – 9
Lib – 2
NDP – 1
This is because the PC Party took 70% of the vote in the last provincial election. Using the proposed list-limit, however, you get the following.
PC – 6 (limited)
Lib – 5
NDP – 1

Combine this with the results from the last election and you get:
PC – 50
Lib – 8
NDP - 2

This brings the total number of opposition seats up to 10 out of 60 (17%) which is more than the 4 out of 48 (8%) they got under the current system. At the same time this allows not only the opposition to get people elected from their lists, but the Government as well. With 6 members, you can elect a Premier, a Deputy Premier, a Finance Minister, Two Women, and a Minority.

Below the fold are examples going back to 1972. Why 1972? Well that was the year we had a federal election that was nearly a tie; a great place to put this electoral system to the test.




Note that these examples show the new totals, added to the ridings elected from our current system.

* = All seats are from the new PR list. The party did not win any ridings.

Newfoundland

2007
PC – 50
Lib – 8
NDP – 2

2003
PC – 40
Lib – 17
NDP – 3

1999
Lib – 38
PC – 19
NDP – 3

1996
Lib – 43
PC – 15
NDP – 1
IND - 1

1993
Lib – 41
PC – 22
NDP – 2

1989
Lib – 37
PC – 28

1985
PC – 42
Lib – 20
NDP – 3

1982
PC – 40
Lib – 15

1979
PC – 40
Lib – 24
NDP – 1*

1975
PC – 37
Lib – 21
RL - 5 (Reform Liberals, or Smallwood Liberals)
Ind - 1

1972
PC – 39
Lib - 14


====================
Prince Edward Island

2007
Lib - 27
PC - 7

2003
PC - 27
Lib - 7

2000
PC - 30
Lib - 4

1996
PC - 22
Lib - 11
NDP - 1

1993
Lib - 36
PC - 4

1989
Lib - 35
PC - 5

1986
Lib - 25
PC - 15

1982
PC - 25
Lib - 15

1979
PC - 25
Lib - 15

1978
Lib - 21
PC - 19

1974
Lib - 31
PC - 9


====================
New Brunswick

2006
Lib - 36
PC - 33

2003
PC - 35
Lib - 32
NDP - 2

1999
PC - 51
Lib - 16
NDP - 2

1995
Lib - 55
PC - 11
NDP - 2
CoR - 1*

1991
Lib - 54
CoR - 11
PC - 6
NDP - 2

1987
Lib - 66
PC - 5*
NDP - 2*

1982
PC - 47
Lib - 24
NDP - 2

1978
PC - 37
Lib - 35
NDP - 1

1974
PC - 40
Lib - 33

--------------------
note
In 1987, the Liberals won every riding. Under the new PR system, they opposition has 9.6% of the seats.
====================
Nova Scotia

2009
NDP - 37
Lib - 15
PC - 13

2006
PC - 28
NDP - 25
Lib - 12

2003
PC - 30
NDP - 19
Lib - 16

1999
PC - 35
NDP - 15
Lib - 15

1998
Lib - 24
NDP - 23
PC - 18

1993
Lib - 46
PC - 12
NDP - 7

1988
PC - 34
Lib - 26
NDP - 4
IND - 1

1984
PC - 49
Lib - 10
NDP - 5
Lab - 1

1981
PC - 44
Lib - 17
NDP - 3
IND - 1

1978
PC - 37
Lib - 22
NDP - 6

1974
Lib - 37
PC - 17
NDP - 4


====================
Manitoba


2008
NDP - 43
PC - 24
Lib - 4

2003
NDP - 42
PC - 25
Lib - 4

1999
NDP - 38
PC - 30
Lib - 3

1995
Lib - 37
NDP - 28
Lib - 6

1990
PC - 36
NDP - 24
Lib - 11

1988
PC - 31
Lib - 25
NDP - 15

1986
NDP - 36
PC - 32
Lib - 3

1981
NDP - 41
PC - 29
Lib - 1*

1977
PC - 40
NDP - 29
Lib - 2

1973
NDP - 37
PC - 26
Lib - 8


--------------------
note
1990. A 3 seat margin becomes a 1 seat margin.
1986, again, 3 seat margin becomes 1.
====================
Saskatchewan

2007
SKP - 44
NDP - 28
Lib - 1*

2003
NDP - 37
SKP - 34
Lib - 2*

1999
NDP - 35
SKP - 31
Lib - 7

1995
NDP - 49
Lib - 16
PC - 8

1991
NDP - 64
PC - 14
Lib - 5

1986
PC - 45
NDP - 33
Lib - 2

1982
PC - 63
NDP - 17

1978
NDP - 52
PC - 23
Lib - 2*

1975
NDP - 46
Lib - 20
PC - 11


====================
Alberta

2008
PC - 84
Lib - 15
NDP - 4
AA - 1*
Grn - 1*

2004
PC - 73
Lib - 22
NDP - 6
AA - 3

2001
PC - 85
Lib - 15
NDP - 4

1997
PC - 74
Lib - 24
NDP - 4
SC - 1*

1993
PC - 61
Lib - 41
NDP - 2*

1989
PC - 69
NDP - 21
Lib - 14

1986
PC - 72
NDP - 23
Lib - 6
RPP - 3

1982
PC - 85
NDP - 8
WCC - 4* (Separatists)
IND - 2

1979
PC - 84
SC - 9
NDP - 5
Lib - 1*

1975
PC - 79
SC - 9
NDP - 4
Lib - 1*
IND - 1


====================
British Columbia

2009
BCL - 59
NDP - 45
Grn - 1*
IND - 1

2005
BCL - 56
NDP - 42
Grn - 1*

2001
BCL - 87
NDP - 8
Grn - 4*


1996
NDP - 47
BCL - 41
Ref - 4
PDA - 2

1991
NDP - 59
BCL - 23
SC - 12

1986
SC - 56
NDP - 29
BCL - 1*

1983
SC - 42
NDP - 29

1979
SC - 38
NDP - 33

1975
SC - 42
NDP - 24
Lib - 2
PC - 1

1972
NDP - 44
SC - 14
Lib - 7
PC - 4


--------------------
note
In 1996 the NDP won a government despite the Liberals having more votes. Our current system gave the (NDP) Government a 3 seat lead over the Opposition. This proposal results in a tie.
====================
Quebec

2008
PLQ - 80
PQ - 63
ADQ - 12
QS - 1

2007
PLQ - 57
ADQ - 52
PQ - 47

2003
PLQ - 91
PQ - 55
ADQ - 10

1998
PQ - 90
PLQ - 62
ADQ - 4

1994
PQ - 92
PLQ - 61
ADQ - 3

1989
PLQ - 108
PQ - 44
Equ - 4

1985
PLQ - 115
PQ - 38

1981
PQ - 96
PLQ - 57

1976
PQ - 84
PLQ - 36
UN - 16
RC - 1
PNP - 1

1973
PLQ - 116
PQ - 17
RC - 5


====================
Ontario

2007
Lib - 83
PC - 35
NDP - 14
Grn - 2*

2003
Lib - 81
PC - 33
NDP - 11

1999
PC - 70
Lib - 46
NDP - 12

1995
PC - 97
Lib - 41
NDP - 24
IND - 1

1990
NDP - 87
Lib - 48
PC - 28

1987
Lib - 111
NDP - 28
PC - 24

1985
PC - 64
Lib - 60
NDP - 32

1981
PC - 84
Lib - 45
NDP - 27

1977
PC - 70
Lib - 44
NDP - 42

1975
PC - 62
Lib - 47
NDP - 47

--------------------
note
In 1975, the NDP took 2 more ridings than the Liberals, however under the proposed PR system, they would have tied, meaning the Liberals remain as Official Opposition.



Up next, federal results.