Monday, October 29, 2012

Sandy

Here's something to think about. Sandy is going to hit almost exclusively Blue states. It probably won't turn any of them Red, but, it will drive down turnout.

That means rather than X number of votes from those states, there are now X-1 votes, with 1 being how ever many people stay home.

The end result?
In terms of the electoral college, no change. Obama is still likely going to win the election with somewhere between 275 and 300 EVs.
However, in terms of popular vote, we could see something we've never seen before.

Romney has been neck and neck with Obama for weeks, but, Obama retains an EV lead. What this means is that Romney is sweeping Red areas while Obama is not sweeping the Blue areas. The end result of this alone could mean Romney wins the popular vote while Obama gets re-elected.

With this storm driving down turnout in blue areas, the chances of this increases.

This has happened two times before. Bush V Gore in 2000, and Hays V Tilden in the 1800s. Both times, the Democrat won the popular vote but the Republican won the election. This could well be the first time the opposite happens.

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Fun facts

If you were to combine the number of MPPs or MNAs with the number of MPs for Ontario and Quebec, you'd get the following.

Ontario
108 Tories
64 Liberals
39 New Democrats
1 Independent
1 Vacancy

Quebec
58 New Democrats
58 'Quebecois'
58 Liberals
24 'Tory Coalition'
2 QS

And if you added Senators to the mix

Ontario
123 Tories
71 Liberals
39 New Democrats
2  Independents
2 Vacancies

Quebec
66 Liberals
58 New Democrats
58 'Quebecois'
39 'Tory Coalition'
2 QS
1 Independent


One of the Ontario Vacancies is in Durham, a pretty solid Tory riding. The other is in the Senate where members are appointed; since this is my list, I'll make the appointments, and I'm deciding that Borys Wrzesnewskyj is getting appointed. (This has the same effect of Borys winning his riding in a by-election, and Opitz getting appointed to the Senate, something Harper would probably do)

Ontario
124 Tories (Hudak)
72 Liberals (Rae)
39 New Democrats (Horwath)
2 Independents

For a balance of
124 Government
113 Opposition

Thursday, October 4, 2012