Monday, September 3, 2012

Final Map / Carte


Analysis

So, what happened? A few things.

First, the CAQ fell apart in the past 24 hours. Voters thought "can I trust Legault and the CAQ with my vote? I don't really want to vote for Maoris and the PQ, or for Charest and the PLQ, but I don't know if I can trust Legault and the CAQ, humm" and decided "Naw, I can't trust em, they are just too unknown, worrysome, and untrustworthy."

Other voters remember the 2007 minority and seem to have gone to the PQ just to give someone a majority. A few voters even swung over to the PLQ.

In the end the result is clear, a stable PQ majority, with a stronger than expected result on the Island of Montreal, and in the 450 area around the city.

There is not much more I can say at this time that has not already been said.

70 #PQ | 30 #PLQ | 22 #CAQ | 2 #QS | 1 #ON

Final Projection

More information to come.

Final Poll (Forum Research)

PQ 36%
PLQ 29%
CAQ 25%
QS 6%
ON 2%
PVQ 2%

In 30 minutes...

At 11pm, the final Forum poll comes out, and I release my final projection. I will be setting up the projection to trickle out throughout the night, and be working on it for a few hours. As soon as the poll is out I will post my topline results. All results will be finished being displayed by 6am.

The Competition

This blog has 3 major competitors in this Quebec election projection season.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/
Three Hundred Eight is the most well known. Their track record is a bit shaky at times, being further off the mark federally in 2011 than any other major projection website. It is run by Eric Grenier. I've mentioned it before, but at one point, I wanted to merge this website with his, as, I thought his website name was stellar and would attract visitors, but after some thought, we both agreed it would be a bad idea. Then I came up with riding by riding!

http://electionsqc.com/
A new website that looks made specifically for this Quebec election. Professionally done and with many visual options, there is little past history to go on. This website however uses the correct methodology pioneered by myself and this website, the "Ratio" method. In his own words:
La variation d’un parti est répartie également à 50%, et en proportion du nombre de votes reçus dans la circonscription à 50%. Par exemple, si QS passe de 3,8% à l’élection à 8,7% dans les sondages, cela fait un écart de 4,9%. Tous les candidats QS monteront donc de 2,45%. Ensuite, comme cela représente une augmentation de 129%, tous les candidats augmentent de 64,5% par rapport à la dernière élection. Dans une circonscription où ils avaient obtenu 1% des voix, ils obtiendront 3,99% des voix (1+2,45+0,645). Dans une circonscription où ils avaient obtenu 10%, ils obtiendront 18,90% (10+2,45+6,45).
I am very very happy to see other projectionists using the ratio method!

This website was a minor player in the 2011 campaign, not garnering much attention until the end, when his projections were pretty damn close to being accurate. With an excellent mastery of English and French, the webmaster Bryan Breguet could be a forced to be dealt with. The main problem appears to be a faulty methodology, based on "uniform swing" - a method proven not to work in Canadian elections. 


I have no problem mentioning the fact that I have competition, or, pointing out who they are. Part of my objective is to be the most accurate election projectionist out there (so that, maybe one day, a political party will hire me to get their candidates elected, or, a media outlet will hire me to come in and talk about things whenever there is an election) Unless I can compare and contrast myself with my competition, I will never be able to do that.

I urge my readers to, if they follow any of these websites, encourage the webmasters to compare themselves as well. 

Prior to the final poll...

Prior to the final poll, our projection stands as follows.

PQ - 64
CAQ - 29
PLQ - 28
QS - 3
ON - 1

Forum poll coming

A final poll from Forum Research will be coming out later tonight.

This is why you never do your "Final Projection" before midnight!

Final projection sneak peak

QS winning 3 seats, and ON winning a seat. PQ winning a majority. What else, you'll have to stay tuned!

BREAKING - New Poll

Follow https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky for more details.

Looks like a PQ Majority, our last projection will reflect this.

Bump







More projections tonight

Unless there is a final poll, my final projections will go up overnight (after midnight, before sunrise)

Political Simulation (AKA a game)

I just wanted to note/remind my readers that I partake in a political simulation, or in other words, play a game, that is quite fun.

www.polcan.info 

This is a game that allows you to be an MP, and allows you to take it from there to wherever you want to go.

This game, Politics Canada, or, PolCan, as we call it, started in 2003, and we've been playing, off and on, ever since. In my time there I've been Prime Minister, Leader of the Opposition, 3rd party leader, Cabinet minister, backbencher, and even a game Administrator. Currently I'm the newly elected Leader of the Opposition.

One of the great things about this game is that you play a character. My character, W. John Jameson, is a solid fiscal conservative. I am not. This gives me the opportunity to find arguments to sell policies that I myself disagree with, but which I feel would win over parts of the electorate. It forces you to think outside the box!

Currently, there are only two parties open for players (due to lack of players). The NDP, currently in a majority government, and the Conservatives, currently the official opposition. The Liberals will open up when we get more players, and the Greens, when we get even more players. To make the game run more smoothly, the Bloc Quebecois has disbanded.

If you've ever wanted to be an MP but can't wait to be elected in real-life, try our political simulation!

Penultimate Projection - Seat Ranges

PQ
Expected to take 59 seats
Could take as many as 75 seats
Could take as few as 42 seats


CAQ
Expected to take 33 seats
Could take as many as 44 seats
Could take as few as 21 seats


PLQ
Expected to take 31 seats
Could take as many as 43 seats
Could take as few as 23 seats


QS
Expected to take 2 seats
Could take as many as 3 seats
Could take as few as 2 seats


ON
Expected to take 0 seats
Could take as many as 1 seat
Could take as few as 0 seats


PVQ
Expected to take 0 seats
Could take as many as 0 seats
Could take as few as 0 seats


No Independents or others are expected to come close to winning, or, even break the 5% barrier. (sorry Luc Harvey)

Riding By Riding (Quebec - Penultimate)

North of the St. Lawrence (excluding the Quebec Area)

The PQ is expected to win 16 seats here, but could win as many as 21 or as few as 14.
The PLQ is expected to win 7, but could win as few as 4.
The CAQ is expected to win 4, but could win as many as 6, or as few as 2.


South of the St. Lawrence (excluding the Quebec Area)

Unless a late-campaign poll comes in to save the day, Charest is gone. He will lose his riding.
The PQ is expected to win 17 seats, but could win as many as 18 or as few as 10
The CAQ is expected to win 8 seats, but could win as many as 12 or as few as 6.
The PLQ is not expected to win any seats, but could win up to 5.
Aussant of the Option Nationale could win his seat, but this is not expected.


Quebec Area


The CAQ is expected to win 12 seats, but could win as many as 14, or as few as 11.
The PLQ is expected to win 3 seats, but could win as many as 5, or as few as 1.
The PQ is expected to win 3 seats, but could win as many as 4, or as few as 2.
Marois will have no trouble getting elected in her own seat.


Montreal

The PLQ is expected to win 17 seats, but could win as many as 19, or as few as 15.
The PQ is expected to win 9, but could win as many as 10, or as few as 7.
QS is expected to win 2 seats, but could win as many as 3.
The CAQ is not expected to win any seats, but could win 1.
Khadir and David will both be elected.
The leader of the PVQ is expected to finish 4th in his riding.


The Corona

The PQ is expected to win 14 seats here, but could win as many as 22, or as few as 9.
The CAQ is expected to win 9, but could win as many as 11, or as few as 2.
The PLQ is expected to win 4 seats but could win as many as 7 or as few as 3.
Legault is expected to be elected in his riding.






Projection - Penultimate without further polls

If there are no further polls there will be my Penultimate (IE, second last) projection.

Riding by Riding results, and Analysis to come in another post in an hour or two.

In short, a PQ Minority, but a "weak" one, as PQ+QS =  No majority.

So, who was liberalwho?

Nobody knows.
http://www.liberalwho.ca/
The website still has not been updated.

I'm a card-carrying Liberal, which means I get a vote this leadership election, either directly, or indirectly, and I will remember that this is the person who wasted an hour of my time.

If it's a ploy by another party, I will remember that too come election time.

I don't like people who waste my time because they either don't know how to set up a clock or they think it's funny and/or are making a point.

Still undecided?

This may help
http://www.montrealgazette.com/life/What+Quebec+parties+offering/7181729/story.html